K. Norman Johnson

Climate change adaptation strategies for federal forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA: ecological, policy, and socio-economic perspectives

Conserving biological diversity in a changing climate poses major challenges for land managers and society. Effective adaptive strategies for dealing with climate change require a socio-ecological systems perspective. We highlight some of the projected ecological responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A and identify possible adaptive actions that federal forest managers could take. The forest landscape, ownership patterns and recent shift toward ecologically based forest management provide a good starting place for conserving biological diversity under climate change. Nevertheless, undesirable changes in species and ecosystems will occur and a number of adaptive actions could be undertaken to lessen the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. These include: manipulation of stand and landscape structure to increase ecological resistance and resilience; movement of species and genotypes; and engaging in regional, multi-ownership planning to make adaptive actions more effective. Although the language and goals of environmental laws and policies were developed under the assumption of stable climate and disturbance regimes, they appear to be flexible enough to accommodate many adaptive actions. It is less certain, however, if sufficient social license and economic capacity exist to undertake these actions. Given the history of contentious and litigious debate about federal forest management in this region, it is likely that some of these actions will be seen as double-edge swords, spurring social resistance, especially where actions involve cutting trees. Given uncertainties and complexity, collaborative efforts that promote learning (e.g. adaptive management groups) must be rejuvenated and expanded.

Spatial forest plan development with ecological and economic goals

Forest planning goals are becoming increasingly complex, as both spatial and temporal characteristics of desired future conditions are becoming important measures of forest plan success to decision makers. The objective of this research was to develop a process where the amount of habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) could be maintained within a certain radius of an owl nest location, while using thinnings and group selection harvests to assist in the development of midto late-successional forest conditions. A heuristic technique, threshold accepting, was used to facilitate the development of this spatial forest plan. Three policy objectives were modeled: maintaining a minimum level of 0, 40, and 80% nesting, roosting, and foraging (NRF) habitat levels within 2.4 km of a known owl location. For a 1910 ha managed forest in the Pacific Northwest USA, when NRF habitat levels were constrained to a minimum level of 40%, net present value (NPV) declined by almost 24%, while average NRF value (over a 100-year time horizon) increased 11%. When NRF habitat levels were constrained to a minimum level of 80%, NPV declined almost 70%, while average NRF increased 29%. This heuristic spatial forest planning process allows forest managers to examine a number of management options, from both economic and ecological perspectives, prior to selecting a preferred alternative.

The science/policy interface in logic-based evaluation of forest ecosystem sustainability

Abstract Numerous efforts around the world are underway to apply the Montreal criteria and indicators to assess the sustainability of temperate and boreal forests. In this paper, we describe a logic-based system for evaluating the sustainability of forests at regional and national levels. We believe that such a system can make evaluation of sustainability more consistent and transparent. This effort also makes two points abundantly clear: (1) a systematic way to organize expert judgment about ecological, economic, social and institutional relationships (here, using ‘fuzzy logic’) is crucial to building such a system and (2) that the structure of this logic-based system reflects a policy framework and a series of decisions about values and what is meant by ‘sustainability’.

SIMULATING FOREST STRUCTURE, TIMBER PRODUCTION, AND SOCIOECONOMIC EFFECTS IN A MULTI-OWNER PROVINCE

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future

Integrating ecological and social ranges of variability in conservation of biodiversity: past, present, and future.

Historical range of variability has been proposed as a concept that can be used by forest land managers to guide conservation of ecosystem functions and biodiversity conservation. The role of humans in historical range of variability has remained somewhat murky and unsettled, even though it is clear that humans have been, are, and will continue to be forces of disturbance and recovery in forested landscapes. We attempt to develop concepts that integrate the ecological and social forces affecting landscape variability. Toward that end, we present a conceptual framework that places “range of variability” into a broader context and integrates the ecological and social forces affecting landscapes past, present, and future. We use two terms to aid us in understanding the utility of historical range of variability as a context and future range of variability as a point of comparison: (1) the ecological range of variability is the estimated range of some ecological condition as a function of the biophysical and social forces affecting the area and (2) the social range of variability is the range of an ecological condition that society finds acceptable at a given time. We find it is important to recognize that future range of variability represents a constantly emerging and changing set of conditions, and that the more humans push a system to depart from its historical range of variabiloity domain, the less likely it becomes that historical range of variability processes will prove useful as benchmarks in recovering a system.

Forest planning in an Oregon case study: Defining the problem and attempting to meet goals with a spatial-analysis technique

Five major management goals were identified for the upper Grande Ronde River Basin on the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest in northeastern Oregon: to produce high-quality fish habitat, to maintain elk habitat, to restore and maintain forest conditions within the natural range of viability, and to contribute to community economic stability. From the broad goals, specific goals for stream temperature, habitat effectiveness index (HEI), habitat corridors, maintenance of land in late or old seral stages, and a nondeclining even flow of timber were selected. A case study was undertaken in a small watershed that is under typical societal constraints to determine whether one decisionsupport tool, SNAP II+, could evaluate the selected goals in a single planning exercise. Three riparian management strategies and two forest road scenarios were used. The exclusion of harvest and road-building from riparian zones in order to increase habitat protection decreased harvest levels and net present value but maintained preactivity stream temperatures. Other resources were generally maintained within prescribed management levels. Although the technique has limitations (e.g., it does not account for riparian zones in calculations of forage and cover for HEI, and it can use the maximum but not minimum acreage goal for some resources), it shows promise for evaluating management tradeoffs in watershed analysis.

The importance of scale in assessing the compatibility of forest commodities and biodiversity.

The idea that forest commodities and biological diversity can be simultaneously produced from the same area in a socially acceptable manner (Haynes et al. 2002) is common in natural resources management, but is infrequently tested in natural resources science. This concept is related to the principle of multiple use, which was encoded in the Multiple-Use Sustained Yield Act of 1960 and endorsed in the National Forest Management Act of 1976. It is clear from the heated controversies and changes in forest management in recent decades that managers of the national forests have found it extremely difficult to achieve a socially acceptable mix of commodity production and biodiversity conditions. Although the idea of compatible uses is prevalent, systematic scientific approaches rarely have been used to test particular management approaches at any spatial scale (Haynes et al. 2002). Field experiments have only recently begun to evaluate consequences of alternative stand-level management activities on both commodities and measures of biological diversity (Monserud 2002). While information from silvicultural experiments is certainly needed, finding compatible mixes of different forest uses requires a multiscale perspective. Ecological, social, and economic patterns and processes occur at different scales within spatial, temporal, and phenomeno-logical hierarchies. What may appear compatible at one scale may not be at another.

Regional Policy Models for Forest Biodiversity Analysis: Lessons From Coastal Oregon

The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million hectares of forest with a complex mixture of public and private ownership. Over a decade, CLAMS scientists developed regional data bases and tools to enable assessments of the implications of current policies for biodiversity and have begun using these data and tools to test ideas for solving policy problems. We summarize here four main lessons from our work: (1) Regional ecosystem perspectives, while rewarding, are difficult to achieve. Helping policy makers and the public understand biodiversity policies for an entire province can assist in developing more reasoned policies. However, this result is difficult to achieve because needed scientific building blocks generally do not exist, few policy institutions address regional cross-ownership issues, people can find it difficult to take a regional view, and the appropriate region for analysis changes with the policy problem. (2) Interest in environmental policy analysis may come as much from a pursuit of power as a pursuit of understanding. Biodiversity policy analyses are often viewed as weapons in an ongoing political battle. Also, results that might destabilize existing policies generally will not be well received by those in power. (3) The relationship of regional analyses to civic processes remains challenging and unsettled. Communication between citizens and scientists takes real effort. Also, collaborative processes both inspire and constrain regional policy analysis, and scientific work often proceeds at a different pace than these processes. In the end, CLAMSs most important effect on the civic dialogue may be to change how people think about the Coast Range. (4) An important role exists for anticipatory assessments done independently by scientists. Independent review will be especially important as policy analyses shift to management of nonfederal forests. Our future efforts in CLAMS will focus on evaluating ideas for fundamental changes in forest management.