K.S. Davison

Relation between fractures and mortality: results from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

Background: Fractures have largely been assessed by their impact on quality of life or health care costs. We conducted this study to evaluate the relation between fractures and mortality. Methods: A total of 7753 randomly selected people (2187 men and 5566 women) aged 50 years and older from across Canada participated in a 5-year observational cohort study. Incident fractures were identified on the basis of validated self-report and were classified by type (vertebral, pelvic, forearm or wrist, rib, hip and “other”). We subdivided fracture groups by the year in which the fracture occurred during follow-up; those occurring in the fourth and fifth years were grouped together. We examined the relation between the time of the incident fracture and death. Results: Compared with participants who had no fracture during follow-up, those who had a vertebral fracture in the second year were at increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–6.6); also at risk were those who had a hip fracture during the first year (adjusted HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4–7.4). Among women, the risk of death was increased for those with a vertebral fracture during the first year (adjusted HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.1–12.8) or the second year of follow-up (adjusted HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.2–8.1). The risk of death was also increased among women with hip fracture during the first year of follow-up (adjusted HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.0–8.7). Interpretation: Vertebral and hip fractures are associated with an increased risk of death. Interventions that reduce the incidence of these fractures need to be implemented to improve survival.

Physical activity, body mass index and bone mineral density-associations in a prospective population-based cohort of women and men: the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos).

BACKGROUND Physical activity (PA) is an important modifiable risk factor for both bone mineral density (BMD) and body mass index (BMI). However, BMI is itself strongly predictive of BMD. Our aim was to determine the association between PA and BMD, with consideration of BMI as a potential mediating factor. METHODS The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) is a population-based prospective cohort study of Canadian women and men. PA was determined from interviewer-administered questionnaires at baseline and Year 5 and summarized as daily energy expenditure in total metabolic equivalents of the task multiplied by minutes/day (MET*m/d). Height, weight, and total hip and lumbar spine BMD were measured at baseline and Year 5. General linear models assessed relationships between PA and BMD, both cross-sectionally (baseline PA with baseline BMD) and longitudinally (average PA and change in PA with change in BMD). BMI was considered as a mediating factor. Potential confounders included age, center, education, caffeine intake, alcohol exposure, smoking history, history of weight-cycling, age at menarche, past use of oral contraceptives, history of >3 months missed menstruation, menopausal status, and antiresorptive use, as relevant. RESULTS The study included 2855 men and 6442 women. PA was inversely associated with BMI at baseline, and an increase in PA between baseline and Year 5 was associated with a decrease in BMI, with 0.41 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.60) kg/m(2) loss per 1000 MET*m/d increase (in men) and 0.40 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.57) kg/m(2) loss per 1000 MET*m/d increase (in women). BMI was strongly associated with BMD, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. However, increased PA was associated with a small increase in total hip BMD, 0.004 (95% CI: 0.000-0.008) g/cm(2) per 1000 MET*m/d (in men) and 0.003 (95% CI: 0.000-0.007) g/cm(2) per 1000 MET*m/d (in women). Average PA was associated with an increase in lumbar spine BMD in women, but not in men; it was not associated with change in total hip BMD in either sex. CONCLUSION Increased PA is associated with an increase in BMD and a concomitant decrease in BMI. These findings suggest that population-level interventions to increase PA would favorably impact bone and other health outcomes.

Multisite quantitative ultrasound for the prediction of fractures over 5 years of follow‐up: The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

This study assessed the ability of multisite quantitative ultrasound (mQUS) to predict fracture over a 5‐year follow‐up. Participants were a subset of the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. mQUS‐assessed speed of sound (SOS in m/s) at three sites (distal radius, tibia, and phalanx) and extensive questionnaires were completed, after which participants were followed for 5 years and incident fractures recorded. Two survival analyses were completed for each site—a univariate analysis and an adjusted multivariate analysis controlling for age, antiresorptive use, femoral neck bone mineral density, number of diseases, previous fractures, body mass index (BMI), parental history of hip fracture, current smoking, current alcoholic drinks >3 per day, current use of glucocorticoids, and rheumatoid arthritis diagnosis (variables from the FRAX 10‐year fracture risk assessment tool). The unit of change for regression analyses was one standard deviation for all measurement sites, specific to site and sex. Separate analyses were completed for all clinical fractures, nonvertebral fractures, and hip fractures by sex. There were 2633 women and 1108 men included, and they experienced 204 incident fractures over 5 years (5.5% fractured). Univariate models revealed statistically significant (p < 0.05) predictive ability of mQUS for all three measurement sites for women alone for all three fracture types (one standard deviation decrease in SOS was associated with a 52% to 130% increase in the risk of fracture), but not for the mens group. The adjusted model found that measures at the distal radius and tibia in the womens group could significantly (p < 0.05) predict all clinical fractures and nonvertebral fractures within the next 5 years (one standard deviation decrease in SOS was associated with a 25% to 31% increase in the risk of fracture). mQUS provided significant 5‐year clinical fracture prediction in women, independent of bone mineral density and other significant risk factors for fracture, when measured at the distal radius and tibia sites.

Predicting fracture using 2D finite element modelling.

A decrease in bone density at the hip or spine has been shown to increase the risk of fracture. A limitation of the bone mineral density (BMD) measurement is that it provides only a measure of a bone samples average density when projected onto a 2D surface. Effectively, what determines bone fracture is whether an applied load exceeds ultimate strength, with both bone tissue material properties (can be approximated through bone density), and geometry playing a role. The goal of this project was to use bone geometry and BMD obtained from radiographs and DXA measurements respectively to estimate fracture risk, using a two-dimensional finite element model (FEM) of the sagittal plane of lumbar vertebrae. The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) data was used for this study. There were 4194 men and women over the age of 50 years, with 786 having fractures. Each subject had BMD testing and radiographs of their lumbar vertebrae. A single two dimensional FEM of the first to fourth lumbar vertebra was automatically generated for each subject. Bone tissue stiffness was assigned based on the BMD of the individual vertebrae, and adjusted for patient age. Axial compression boundary conditions were applied with a force proportional to body mass. The resulting overall strain from the applied force was found. Men and women were analyzed separately. At baseline, the sensitivity of BMD to predict fragility fractures in women and men was 3.77% and 0.86%, while the sensitivity of FEM to predict fragility fractures for women and men was 10.8% and 11.3%. The FEM ROC curve demonstrated better performance compared to BMD. The relative risk of being considered at high fracture risk using FEM at baseline, was a better predictor of 5 year incident fragility fracture risk compared to BMD.

Characteristics of hyperparathyroid states in the Canadian multicentre osteoporosis study (CaMos) and relationship to skeletal markers

PTH is an essential regulator of mineral metabolism; PTH hypersecretion may result in hyperparathyroidism including normocalcaemic, primary and secondary hyperparathyroidism.

Dietary patterns in men and women are simultaneously determinants of altered glucose metabolism and bone metabolism.

We hypothesized that diet would have direct effects on glucose metabolism with direct and indirect effects on bone metabolism in a cohort of Canadian adults. We assessed dietary patterns (Prudent [fruit, vegetables, whole grains, fish, and legumes] and Western [soft drinks, potato chips, French fries, meats, and desserts]) from a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. We used fasting blood samples to measure glucose, insulin, homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), parathyroid hormone, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (a bone formation marker), and serum C-terminal telopeptide (CTX; a bone resorption marker). We used multivariate regression models adjusted for confounders and including/excluding body mass index. In a secondary analysis, we examined relationships through structural equations models. The Prudent diet was associated with favorable effects on glucose metabolism (lower insulin and HOMA-IR) and bone metabolism (lower CTX in women; higher 25OHD and lower parathyroid hormone in men). The Western diet was associated with deleterious effects on glucose metabolism (higher glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR) and bone metabolism (higher bone-specific alkaline phosphatase and lower 25OHD in women; higher CTX in men). Body mass index adjustment moved point estimates toward the null, indicating partial mediation. The structural equation model confirmed the hypothesized linkage with strong effects of Prudent and Western diet on metabolic risk, and both direct and indirect effects of a Prudent diet on bone turnover. In summary, a Prudent diet was associated with lower metabolic risk with both primary and mediated effects on bone turnover, suggesting that it is a potential target for reducing fracture risk.

Comparison of Speed of Sound Measures Assessed by Multisite Quantitative Ultrasound to Bone Mineral Density Measures Assessed by Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry in a Large Canadian Cohort: the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos)

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is an important tool for the estimate of fracture risk through the measurement of bone mineral density (BMD). Similarly, multisite quantitate ultrasound can prospectively predict future fracture through the measurement of speed of sound (SOS). This investigation compared BMD (at the femoral neck, total hip, and lumbar spine) and SOS measures (at the distal radius, tibia, and phalanx sites) in a large sample of randomly-selected and community-based individuals from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Furthermore, mass, height, and age were also compared with both measures. There were 4123 patients included with an age range of 30-96.8 yr. Pearson product moment correlations between BMD and SOS measures were low (0.21-0.29; all p<0.001), irrespective of site. Mass was moderately correlated with BMD measures (0.40-0.58; p<0.001), but lowly correlated with SOS measures (0.03-0.13; p<0.05). BMD and SOS were negatively correlated to age (-0.17 to -0.44; p<0.001). When regression analyses were performed to predict SOS measures at the 3 sites, the models predicted 20%-23% of the variance, leaving 77%-80% unaccounted for. The SOS measures in this study were found to be largely independent from BMD measures. In areas with no or limited access to DXA, the multisite quantitative ultrasound may act as a valuable tool to assess fracture risk. In locales with liberal access to DXA, the addition of SOS to BMD and other clinical risk factors may improve the identification of those patients at high risk for future fracture.

Normative Bone Mineral Density Z-Scores for Canadians Aged 16 to 24 Years: The Canadian Multicenter Osteoporosis Study

The objectives of the study were to develop bone mineral density (BMD) reference norms and BMD Z-scores at various skeletal sites, to determine whether prior fracture and/or asthma were related to BMD, and to assess possible geographic variation of BMD among Canadian youth aged 16-24 yr. Z-Scores were defined as the number of standard deviations from the mean BMD of a healthy population of the same age, race, and sex. Z-Scores were calculated using the reference sample defined as Canadian Caucasian participants without asthma or prior fracture. Reference standards were created for lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total hip, and greater trochanter, by each year of age (16-24 yr), and by sex. The Z-score norms were developed for groups noted earlier. Mean Z-scores between the asthma or fracture subgroups compared with the mean Z-scores in the reference sample were not different. There were minor differences in mean BMD across different Canadian geographic regions. This study provides age, sex, and skeletal site-specific Caucasian reference norms and formulae for the calculation of BMD Z-scores for Canadian youth aged 16-24 yr. This information will be valuable to help to identify individuals with clinically meaningful low BMD.

The association between sclerostin and incident type 2 diabetes risk: a cohort study

To determine whether sclerostin is associated with fasting glucose, insulin levels, insulin resistance or increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes.

Heterogeneity in Skeletal Load Adaptation Points to a Role for Modeling in the Pathogenesis of Osteoporotic Fracture

Genetic, environmental, or hormonal factors may cause heterogeneity in skeletal load response. Individuals with reduced sensitivity to load should require higher strains to generate an adaptive response, consequently have weaker bones and fracture more frequently. The purpose of our study was to determine if stresses (proportional to strains) at the femoral neck under equivalent loads were higher in women with a history of fractures compared with women without fractures. We studied postmenopausal women participating in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study who had available hip structure analysis data from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans (n = 2168). Women were categorized into 2 groups based on their number of self-reported fractures. We computed stress (megapascals) at the inferomedial margin of the femoral neck in a one-legged stance mode using a 2-dimensional engineering beam analysis. We used linear regression (SAS 9.3) to determine associations between stress, geometry parameters, and number of fractures. Postmenopausal women with 1 or more fractures had higher stress (2.6%), lower narrow neck bone mineral density (4.2%), cross-sectional area (3.9%), and section modulus (9.6%) than postmenopausal women without fractures (all p < 0.05). These findings provide evidence of heterogeneity in load response and suggest an important role for modeling in the pathogenesis of osteoporotic fracture.