K. Stephen Haggard

Price Momentum and Idiosyncratic Volatility

We find that returns to momentum investing are higher among high idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) stocks, especially high IVol losers. Higher IVol stocks also experience quicker and larger reversals. The findings are consistent with momentum profits being attributable to underreaction to firm-specific information and with IVol limiting arbitrage of the momentum effect. We also find a positive time-series relation between momentum returns and aggregate IVol. Given the long-term rise in IVol, this result helps explain the persistence of momentum profits since Jegadeesh and Titmans (1993) study.

PIPEs Around the World

Public investment in private equity (PIPE) is a financing form growing in popularity in the U.S., recently surpassing seasoned equity offerings in number and value. Research to date is highly focused on the U.S., with little attention paid to international markets. We use newly available data to examine PIPE deals in Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, and the U.K. We document similarities and differences relative to the U.S. market. PIPE firms tend to be small, high-growth firms with poor accounting and stock performance prior to PIPE issuance. However, these stylized facts do not hold uniformly across the exchanges we study. We also document a lack of significant market reaction to the announcement of PIPE deals on these exchanges.

Black cats or black swans? Outliers, seasonality in return distribution properties, and the Halloween effect

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which outliers have persisted in augmenting the Halloween effect over time and to offer an econometric test of seasonality in return skewness that might provide a partial explanation for the Halloween effect. Design/methodology/approach - – The authors split the Morgan Stanley Capital International data for 37 countries into two subperiods and, using median regression and influence vectors, examine these periods for a possible change in the interplay between outliers and the Halloween effect. The authors perform a statistical assessment of whether outliers are a significant contributor to the overall Halloween effect using a bootstrap test of seasonal differences in return skewness. Findings - – Large returns (positive and negative) persist in being generally favorable to the Halloween effect in most countries. The authors find seasonality in return skewness to be statistically significant in many countries. Returns over the May through October timeframe are negatively skewed relative to returns over the November through April period. Originality/value - – This paper offers the first statistical test of seasonality in return skewness in the context of the Halloween effect. The authors show the Halloween effect to be a more complex phenomenon than the simple seasonality in mean returns documented in prior research.

Stock returns in Chinese markets and lucky numbered days

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to examine the stock return impact of “lucky” numbered days in markets dominated by Chinese participants. The existence of such patterns might present arbitrage opportunities for investors who do not share a belief in the Chinese system of “lucky” numbers. Design/methodology/approach - – In univariate and multivariate analyses, the author examines the statistical significance of return differences between “lucky” numbered days and other days. The author examines samples which only consider single digit days and months, and the author also considers samples based on the last digit of the day or month. Based on the findings in these tests, the author designs and tests a trading strategy on the Shenzhen Exchange that produces significant risk-adjusted returns in excess of the buy-and-hold return on the Shenzhen Composite Index. Findings - – The author shows that “lucky” numbered dates impact stock returns in Chinese markets and demonstrate a “lucky” number date trading strategy for the Shenzhen market that produces risk-adjusted returns in excess of the market return. Originality/value - – Prior research on home address numbers and stock trading codes shows that, in markets dominated by Chinese participants, assets with identifiers containing numbers defined by

Subperiod robustness checks: testing for effect mean stationarity

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to suggest a superior method for assessing mean stationarity of asset pricing effects. Design/methodology/approach - The authors suggest the use of an Findings - It is found that the suggested Originality/value - This paper sheds light on an analytical oversight in the asset pricing anomalies literature and suggests an appropriate test to address this oversight.

GOVERNANCE, LAW, RELIGION AND CULTURE

We proposed a model in which culture plays a dominant role, along with religion and legal origin, in determining the quality of governance in a country. We examined four dimensions of culture and four measurements of governance quality across 71 countries. Our empirical results demonstrated the dominant role played by culture, over and above religion and legal origin, in explaining governance quality. As culture is persistent and unlikely to be easily changed, efforts to improve governance quality might be doomed to failure in nations with cultural values that are hostile to good governance.

Executive compensation: does industry risk matter?

Prior studies of the role of risk in executive compensation focus on market risk and firm risk, neglecting the role of industry risk in explaining executive compensation. We include industry risk and find that the portion of CEO compensation for bearing industry risk is greater than the portion of CEO compensation for bearing market risk. Consistent with the human capital of a CEO being non-diversifiable, CEOs also receive compensation for bearing firm-specific risk, in contrast to investors, who can diversify their risk over many assets. CEOs are compensated for bearing firm-specific risks through all the compensation tools we examine; salary, bonus, option grants and option exercises. CEOs are compensated for bearing market and industry risk primarily through stock option grants.

Short‐Term Performance of U.S.‐Bound Chinese IPOs

Firms from emerging markets, including China, increasingly seek to raise capital outside of their home markets. We examine the short-term performance of U.S.-bound Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) and find that these IPOs have significantly lower underpricing than a matched sample of U.S. counterparts. We also find that the magnitude of IPO underpricing for U.S.-bound Chinese firms is positively related to revisions in offer price.

IPO overvaluation and returns prior to lockup expiration

Purpose Conventional wisdom says that the price reduction stocks experience at expiration of the initial public offering (IPO) lockup period is due to relaxation of selling constraints. Findings from more recent literature question this explanation. The purpose of this paper is to examine a different cause for this price drop, IPO overvaluation. Design/methodology/approach Using the IPO overvaluation measures of Purnanandam and Swaminathan (2004), the authors examine IPO lockup period stock return differences between stocks in the highest and lowest overvaluation quintiles. Findings The authors show that the IPO lockup period price reduction is strongly related to overvaluation. Zero-investment portfolios long in the lowest overvaluation quintile and short in the highest overvaluation quintile of IPO firms have positive significant returns. Practical implications IPO investors can use the technique to identify firms likely to underperform in the IPO lockup period, potentially avoiding bad investments. Originality/value This is the first study to link IPO lockup period stock returns to IPO overvaluation, providing evidence on the impact of both overvaluation and short-selling constraints on stock returns in the IPO lockup period.

Value creation through executive diversity

We examined stock market reactions to announcements of CEO appointments as a proxy for the perceived value created by these appointments. We examined differences in market reactions to the appointments of minority and women CEOs compared to white males. Our results indicate additional value creation through the appointment of African- American CEOs, but not through the appointment of female or Hispanic CEOs. We provide a potential explanation for this differential valuation of differing types of diversity.