Kaan Sözmen

A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Salt Reduction Policies to Reduce Coronary Heart Disease in Four Eastern Mediterranean Countries

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of

Decomposing socioeconomic inequalities in self assessed health in Turkey

235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia;

High prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a Western urban Turkish population: a community-based study.

39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria;

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008

6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and

Explaining inequalities in Health Care Utilization among Turkish adults: Findings from Health Survey 2008

1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives.

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

IntroductionThis study aimed to measure socioeconomic inequalities in Self Assessed Health (SAH) and evaluate the determinants of such inequalities in terms of their contributions amongst the Turkish population.MethodsWe used data from the Turkish part of World Health Survey 2003 with 10,287 respondents over 18 years old. Concentration index (CI) of SAH was calculated as a measure of socioeconomic inequalities in health, and contributions of each determinant to inequality were evaluated using a decomposition method.ResultsIn total 952 participants (9.3%) rated their health status as either bad or very bad. The CI for SAH was −0.15, suggesting that suboptimal SAH was reported more by those categorised as poor. The multiple logistic regression results indicated that having secondary, primary or less than primary school education, not being married and being in the lowest wealth quintile, significantly increased the risk of having poor SAH. The largest contributions to inequality were attributed to education level (70.7%), household economic status (9.7%) and geographical area lived in (8.4%).ConclusionThe findings indicate that socioeconomic inequalities measured by SAH are apparent amongst the Turkish population. Education and household wealth were the greatest contributing factors to SAH inequality. These inequalities need to be explicitly addressed and vulnerable subgroups should be targeted to reduce the socioeconomic disparities.

Determinants of inpatient costs of angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in a university hospital setting in Turkey.

OBJECTIVE Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the largest cause of morbidity and mortality in Turkey and in the World. Heart of Balçova Project is a community- based health promotion project that aims to reduce CVD incidence and prevalence through risk factor modification in the individual and population level. This paper presents results of the baseline survey that aimed to define CVD risk factors and risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Balçova population. METHODS The study population included 36,187 people over 30 years of age residing in Balçova in 2007. Individuals were interviewed at their homes. Anthropometrics and blood pressure were measured and in total 12914 fasting blood samples were collected for lipid and glucose analyses. CHD risk was estimated using Framingham risk equation. Students t test, Chi-square for trend test and ANOVA were used to compare mean levels and percentages of risk factors between age groups and gender. RESULTS In total 5552 men and 10528 women participated in the study. Smoking prevalence was 38.6% in men and 26.8% in women. The prevalence of obesity was 29.4% among men and 44.2% among women and obesity prevalence increased until the age group 75 years old. While 14.6% of men and 12.6% of women had diabetes, 39.8% of men and 41.8% of women had hypertension. The prevalence of high total cholesterol was 56.0% in men and 50.6% in women. Men had a higher risk of developing CHD compared to women in the following 10 years (13.4% vs 2.5%). CONCLUSION The prevalence of preventable risk factors for CHD is very high in Balçova population. Community-based interventions should be planned and implemented targeting both the high-risk individuals and whole population.

Prevalence of Low Ankle Brachial Index and Relationship With Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Western Urban Population in Turkey

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008.MethodsThe number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred.ResultsThe CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994–2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994–2000 and 6.7% between 2005–2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods).Stroke mortality declined between 1990–1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994–2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods).ConclusionsA decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments

BACKGROUND Turkish health system showed major improvements in health outcomes since initiation of the Health Transition Programme (HTP) in 2003, however little is known regarding income-related inequalities in health care use. The aim of this study was to assess horizontal inequities in health care use in Turkey. METHODS We used the data from Turkish Health Survey 2008 with 14,655 respondents. We calculated concentration index (C) and horizontal inequity index (HI) to measure the socioeconomic inequalities in utilization of general practitioner (GP) care, specialist care, inpatient care, dental care and emergency care. Contributions of each factor to the observed inequality in health care utilization were assessed through decomposition method. RESULTS There was a significant pro-rich inequality in specialist care and oral health care utilization among individuals as indicated by positive values of HI (=0.1149) and HI (=0.1137), respectively. However, the poor were more likely to utilize emergency care (HI=-0.0461) and inpatient care (HI=-0.0731). GP care was also slightly pro-poor distributed (HI=-0.0042). CONCLUSION Pro-poor income-related inequalities in health care use were largely explained by greater health care need among low income groups, while non-need factors were the main determinants for pro-rich utilization (education, residence area). Inequalities in dental and specialist care linked to low income, low education level and rural areas should be given priority by decision makers to reduce the negative impact of utilization on health. Our results provide some evidence of inequity in 2008, after the introduction of HTP and provide a baseline against which the effects of the new reforms can be assessed.

Determinants of Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening Uptake Among Women in Turkey.

Objective This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025. Design A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025. Setting Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. Subject Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25–84) of 54 million in Turkey. Results Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290–31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780–55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.