Kai M. Thaler

Socio-Economic Conditions, Young Men and Violence in Cape Town

People in violent neighbourhoods attribute violence in public spaces to, especially, poverty and unemployment, but agree that social disintegration, disrespect, drinking and drugs and the weaknesses of the criminal justice system also contribute substantially. However, data from a panel of young men in Cape Town provide little support for the hypothesis that unemployment and poverty are direct causes of violence against strangers. Growing up in a home where someone drank heavily or took drugs is, however, a strong predictor of violence against strangers in early adulthood. A history of drinking (or taking drugs) correlates with perpetration of violence, and might also serve as a mechanism through which conditions during childhood have indirect effects. Living in a bad neighbourhood and immediate poverty are associated with violence against strangers, but being unemployed is not. Overall, heavy drinking – whether by adults in the childhood home or by young men themselves – seems to be a more important predictor of violence than economic circumstances in childhood or the recent past. Heavy drinking seems to play an important part in explaining why some young men have been more violent than others in circumstances that seem to have been generally conducive to rising violence, for reasons that remain unclear. It seems likely that few young people in South Africa in the early 2000s come from backgrounds that strongly predispose them against the use of violence.

Mixed Methods Research in the Study of Political and Social Violence and Conflict

The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency, and processes related to violence and conflict, and the opportunity MMR offers to influence a broader academic and policy audience. MMR can improve the accordance of theories and empirical studies with the complexities of social reality and enhance understanding of the causes, consequences, and potential remedies of violence and conflict.

Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo

Abstract:Nicaragua’s 2016 elections saw President Daniel Ortega win a third consecutive term, and his wife, Rosario Murillo, become Vice President, in the face of an opposition abstention campaign. Since winning the presidency in 2007, Ortega has consolidated control over Nicaragua’s institutions and economy while rejecting his revolutionary roots, stifling opposition parties and civil society, and enriching his family and associates. Ortega’s move from electoral victory to caudillo-style strongman rule offers a Latin American parallel to contemporary autocratic transitions in cases like Russia, Turkey, and Hungary. Absent a crisis, Nicaraguans face an uphill battle to restore democracy and avert a new family dynasty.

Weapons, Violence and the Perpetrator-Victim Nexus in South Africa

Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper examines the question of who carries weapons outside the home in Cape Town and what the effects of weapon carrying may be. Multiple regression analysis is used to test the significance of possible drivers of weapon carrying and the results are discussed in the South African social context. Weapon carrying is found to be associated with both assault perpetration and victimization, suggesting that it is part of a violent lifestyle in which weapon carriers are likely to use their weapons both offensively and defensively. Possible weapon-related policies for violence reduction are also discussed.