Kalim Ullah

Modelling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Sunflower in Pakistan

Climate change, food security, water scarcity and environmental sustainability have all become major global challenges. As a consequence, improving resource use efficiency is an important aspect of increasing crop productivity. Crop models are increasingly being used as tools for supporting strategic and tactical decision making under varying agro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. These tools can also support climate change assessment and the evaluation of adaptation strategies to limit the adverse impacts of climate change. In this paper, the authors report on a case study conducted to assess the potential impact of climate change on grain yield in sunflower under arid, semi-arid and subhumid conditions in the Punjab region of Pakistan. Experimental data obtained between 2008 and 2009 were used for model evaluation. The study focused on the impacts of incremental temperature change on sunflower production. The modelling suggests that grain yield could reduce by up to 15% by the 2020s with an average increase in temperature of +1°C, and by up to 25% if temperatures increased by up to 2°C for the 2050s. Adaptation strategies showed that, if the crop were sown between 14 days (for 2020) and 21 days (for 2050) earlier than the current date (last week in February), yield losses could potentially be reduced.

Moisture Transport over the Arabian Sea Associated with Summer Rainfall over Pakistan in 1994 and 2002

In this study, we aimed to elucidate the critical role of moisture transport affecting monsoon activity in two contrasting summers over the Arabian Sea during the years 1994, a relatively wet year, and 2002, a relatively dry year. A comprehensive diagnostic evaluation and comparisons of the moisture fields were conducted; we focused on the precipitation and evaporation as well as the moisture transport and its divergence or convergence in the atmosphere. Monthly mean reanalysis data were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-I and -II). A detailed evaluation of the moisture budgets over Pakistan during these two years was made by calculating the latent energy flux at the surface (E-P) from the divergence of the total moisture transport. Our results confirm the moisture supply over the Arabian Sea to be the major source of rainfall in Pakistan and neighboring regions. In 1994, Pakistan received more rainfall compared to 2002 during the summer monsoon. Moisture flow deepens and strengthens over Arabian Sea during the peak summer monsoon months of July and August. Our analysis shows that vertically integrated moisture transport flux have a significant role in supplying moisture to the convective centers over Pakistan and neighboring regions from the divergent regions of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Moreover, in 1994, a deeper vertically integrated moisture convergence progression occurred over Pakistan compared to that in 2002. Perhaps that deeper convergence resulted in a more intense moisture depression over Pakistan and also caused more rainfall in 1994 during the summer monsoon. Finally, from the water budget analysis, it has been surmised that the water budget was larger in 1994 than in 2002 during the summer monsoon.

Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation on the variability of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

Based on station observations and reanalysis data sets, the atmospheric moisture budget and its critical role in regulating the variability of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are investigated. Results indicate that the yearly variability of summer precipitation over the southern TP (STP) is mainly controlled by remote moisture transport. Local surface evaporation presents an infinitesimal interannual fluctuation, but it cannot be ignored since it is a large component of total precipitation amount in every summer. Although the incoming moisture transport at the western boundary of STP is much weaker than that at the southern boundary, it primarily influences the temporal variation of STP summer precipitation. Further analysis shows that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also possesses a significant impact on the variation of STP summer precipitation. A strong NAO apparently weakens the moisture transport at the western boundary, inducing less precipitation over the STP. When the NAO is strong, wave-activity flux obviously diverges eastward from the subtropical high over northwestern Europe. Then such flux converges toward the western TP, which weakens the baroclinic vertical structure of atmospheric circulation over the TP. The NAO also influences the meridional position of the Asian jet stream and modulates the specific humidity and moisture transport at the western boundary of STP. In addition, the dynamic processes of the atmosphere are more important than the thermodynamic processes in regulating the variability of TP summer precipitation.

Investigations into Precipitation and Drought Climatologies in South Central Asia with Special Focus on Pakistan over the Period 1951–2010

AbstractThe climatology of precipitation and drought are analyzed by using different indices in the region of south central Asia (SCA). The spatial precipitation pattern is delineated by using principal component analysis (PCA) over the period of 1951–2010, which identifies six subregions in the SCA. The monthly and annual trends of precipitation were analyzed by applying the five statistical tests: Student’s t, Mann–Kendall, and Spearman’s rho tests for linear trend and turning point analysis and Sen’s slope for randomness and slope magnitude, respectively, at the α = 0.05 significance level. The time series analysis shows data similarity between Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and area-weighted precipitation of 52 meteorological stations in Pakistan, which results in a high correlation (R2 = 0.93). Two main drought periods were identified (1971 and 2000–02); also, 2001 was an extremely dry year in the SCA region. The drought in 1952 was the most severe in Pakistan; the longest drought per...

Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010

Drought is one of the complex meteorological disasters affecting water resources, agriculture, livestock, and socioeconomic patterns of a region. Although drought prediction is difficult, it can be monitored based on climatological information. In this study, we provide high spatiotemporal resolution drought climatology, using observational, gridded precipitation data (0.5°×0.5°) from the Global Precipitation Climatological Center and soil moisture data from the Climate Prediction Center for the 60-yr period 1951–2010. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) based on a fitted Gamma distribution and Run method has been calculated from the regional drought identification model (ReDIM) for 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. The results show strong temporal correlations among anomalies of precipitation, soil moisture, and SPI. Analysis of long-term precipitation data reveals that the drought vulnerability concentrates on monsoon season (July–September), which contributes 72.4% and 82.1% of the annual precipitation in northern and southern Sindh, respectively. Annual and seasonal analyses show no significant changes in the observed precipitation. The category classification criteria are defined to monitor/forecast drought in the selected area. Further analysis identifies two longest episodes of drought, i.e., 1972–1974 and 2000–2002, while 1969, 1974, 1987, and 2002 are found to be the most severe historical drought years. A drought hazard map of Sindh was developed, in which 10 districts are recognized as highly vulnerable to drought. This study helps to explain the time, duration, intensity, and frequency of meteorological droughts over Sindh as well as its neighboring regions, and provides useful information to disaster management agencies and forecasters for assessing both the regional vulnerability of drought and its seasonal predictability in Pakistan.

Impact of temperature on yield and related traits in cotton genotypes

Abstract Cotton growth and development is influenced by various uncontrollable environmental conditions. Temperature variations in the field can be created by planting at different dates. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of planting dates and thermal temperatures (growing degree days) on yield of 4 cotton genotypes, viz., CIM-598, CIM-599, CIM-602 and Ali Akbar-703. Plants were subjected to 6 planting dates during 2013 and 2014 in a trial conducted in randomized complete block design with four replications. For boll number, boll weight and seed cotton yield, cotton genotypes exhibited significant differences, CIM-599 produced the highest seed cotton yield of 2062 kg ha–1 on account of maximum boll number and boll weight. The highest seed cotton yield was recorded in planting dates from 15th April to 1st May whereas early and delayed planting reduced the yield due to less accumulation of heat units. Regression analysis revealed that increase of one unit (15 days) from early to optimum date (15th March to 15th April) increased yield by 93.58 kg ha–1. Delay in planting also decreased the seed cotton yield with the same ratio. Thus it is concluded that cotton must be sown from 15th April to 1st May to have good productivity in this kind of environment.

Effects of structurally different noncoplanar and coplanar PCBs on HELF cell proliferation, cell cycle, and potential molecular mechanisms

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a group of chemicals that persist in the environment, indoors, and humans. Lung exposure to airborne and food contaminants, such as PCBs, may cause possible lung disorders, such as cancer. In the present study, we investigated the effects of structurally different lower chlorinated (≤4Cl), noncoplanar PCB40, and coplanar PCB77 on human lung fibroblast cell line (HELF) cell proliferation, cell cycle progression, and possible molecular mechanisms. Noncoplanar PCB40 and coplanar PCB77 exhibited concentration‐ and time‐dependent biphasic dose–response effects on HELF cell proliferation. Noncoplanar PCB40 and coplanar PCB77 induced 23 and 45% cytotoxicity at higher concentrations than the control. The flow cytometry analysis showed that exposure to PCB40 caused a significant increase in time spent in the G1 phase but decreased length of the S phase in a concentration‐ and time‐dependent manner, whereas PCB77 exposure decreased time spent in the G1 and S phases but increased time spent in the G2 phase. Western blot analysis indicated that PCB77 increased the expression of cyclin E, CDK2, p21, and caspase‐9, while PCB40 decreased the expression of these proteins (except CDK2 and p21). An increase in CDK expression after exposure to PCB77 suggests that it may cause carcinogenic effects on HELF cells at higher doses. Our results also demonstrate that the different cytotoxic effects induced by coplanar and nonplanar PCBs were correlated with their structural characteristics; the coplanar congener was more cytotoxic than the nonplanar congener. The study elaborates threshold levels for these chemicals and suggests that the cytotoxicity mechanisms by which PCB congeners act on HELF cells depend on their planarity and chemical structures. Furthermore, the study will be important for developing antidotes to the adverse effects and risk assessment practices for PCBs.

Comparison of various drought indices to monitor drought status in Pakistan

Various drought indices are normally used to monitor drought and its risk management. Precipitation, temperature and other hydro meteorological parameters are the essential parts to the identification of drought. For this purpose, several drought indices have been developed and are being used around the world. This study identifies the applicability and comparison of drought indices in Pakistan by evaluating the performance of 15 drought indices. The indices include standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation temperature index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), China Z-Index, deciles index, modified CZI, Z-Score, rainfall variability index, standardized soil moisture anomaly index, weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index, percent of normal precipitation index, self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index, composite index, percentage area weighted departure and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). These indices are compared by utilizing long term data of 58 meteorological stations for the period 1951–2014. The performance, efficiency and significance are also tested by applying different statistical tests. The SPI, SPEI and RDI results showed a good capability to monitor drought status in Pakistan. The positive increasing trend (towards wetness) is noted by several of the aforementioned indices at 95% confidence level. In addition, historical drought years and intensity have been explored along with comparison of recent long episode of drought (1999–2002) and all the indices captured this period successfully.

Meteorological impacts on evapotranspiration in different climatic zones of Pakistan

Arid regions are highly vulnerable and sensitive to drought. The crops cultivated in arid zones are at high risk due to the high evapotranspiration and water demands. This study analyzed the changes in seasonal and annual evapotranspiration (ET) during 1951–2016 at 50 meteorological stations located in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones of Pakistan using the Penman Monteith (PM) method. The results show that ET is highly sensitive and positively correlated to temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed whereas vapor pressure is negatively correlated to ET. The study also identifies the relationship of ET with the meteorological parameters in different climatic zones of Pakistan. The significant trend analysis of precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) are conducted at 95% confidence level to determine the behaviors of these parameters in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones. The mean annual precipitation and annual mean maximum temperature significantly increased by 0.828 mm/a and 0.014°C/a in the arid and extremely arid zones, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased by 0.017°C/a in the extremely arid zone and 0.019°C/a in the arid zone, whereas a significant decrease of 0.007°C/a was observed in the semi-arid zone. This study provides probabilistic future scenarios that would be helpful for policy-makers, agriculturists to plan effective irrigation measures towards the sustainable development in Pakistan.

Tibetan Plateau heating as a driver of monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

Pakistan summer monsoon rainfall consists of a large portion of the local annual total rainfall, and in the recent monsoon seasons, prolonged periods of anomalous rainfall and excessive flooding have appeared in Pakistan. A full understanding of the monsoon rainfall variability is important for the sustainable development of the country. Based on multiple data analyses and the weather research and forecasting model, the potential impact of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating on the interannual variability of Pakistan monsoon rainfall is investigated. It is observed that a significant negative relationship exists between the thermal forcing over the southeastern TP and Pakistan monsoon rainfall in July–August. Both the data analyses and model sensitivity experiments identify that the TP heating drives a Rossby wave response in the upper atmosphere characterized with an anticyclonic anomaly over the southern TP but a cyclonic anomaly to the north. This dipole pattern of anomalous circulation induces an evident upper-level convergence over Pakistan, corresponding with remarkable vertical sinking motion. Meanwhile, in the lower troposphere, the TP heating causes anomalous westerly wind along the Himalayas over the northern India continent. Such westerly anomaly further induces less water vapor transport into Pakistan from the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, both the dynamic and thermodynamic processes regulated by positive TP heating are not beneficial for the occurrence of monsoon rainfall in Pakistan. This study proposes a new potential mechanism in which TP heating acts as a driver of Pakistan monsoon rainfall variability on interannual time scales.