Kalpna Gahalaut

Role of reservoirs in sustained seismicity of Koyna-Warna region—a statistical analysis

Koyna-Warna region in western India is a globally recognized site of reservoir-triggered seismicity near the Koyna and Warna reservoirs. The region has been reported with several M > 5 earthquakes in the last five decades including M6.3 Koyna earthquake which is considered as the largest triggered earthquake worldwide. In the present study, a detailed statistical analysis has been done for long period earthquake catalogues during 1968–2004 of MERI and 2005–2012 of CSIR-NGRI to find out the spatio-temporal influence of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs impoundment on the seismicity of the region. Depending upon the earthquake clusters, we divided the region into three different zones and performed power spectrum and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) on them. For the time period 1983–1995, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir; for 1996–2004, the earthquake zone near the Koyna reservoir; and for 2005–2012, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir found to be influenced by the annual water level variations in the reservoirs that confirm the continuous role of both the reservoirs in the seismicity of the Koyna-Warna region.

Sustained seismicity near Koyna-Warna reservoir: A mish-mash of physical processes

Earthquakes in Koyna-Warna region are triggered by the reservoirs but the reasons for sustained seismicity, in terms of magnitude and time, remain enigmatic. We critically review the proposed models/processes, which include fault interaction, flexure of Western Ghat escarpment, velocity heterogeneity, and earthquakes being considered as aftershocks. We suggest that each of these processes or models have limitations and are not capable of explaining all the features of seismicity individually. It is possible that all put together and some other unknown additional processes are at work and there is a mish-mash of several processes attending the region, causing continuing seismicity for past five decades.