Kamal P. Upadhyaya

Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study

Abstract This paper estimates the effect of currency devaluation on the aggregate output level in six Asian countries using a unique methodology developed by Wickens et al. (1988; Economic Journal 189–205). The estimated results suggest that devaluation, in general, is neutral in the long run. In some cases it even can have a contractionary effect.

Devaluation and the trade balance in India: stationarity and cointegration

A study of devaluation and the trade balance in India corrects the data for nonstationarity. Previous empirical tests have used non-stationary data. The trade balance in India is not cointegrated with a number of variables, including the exchange rate. Absorption, elasticity, and monetary models are compared, and the monetary model performs better. There has been no J-curve in India, and devaluations have had no significant long-run effect on the trade balance.

Devaluation and the trade balance: estimating the long run effect

This study tests the effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in eight developing countries from Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. A unique and new methodology is used to estimate the long run effect of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that devaluation, in general, does not improve the trade balance in the long run. In some cases it even had a perverse effect.

MARKET REFORM AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA: Evidence from an Error Correction Model

This study models dollar values of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to conditions in seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) during the 1988-1992 period. Although much research on FDI has used time series data to explain inward or outward flows, two things set this study apart. First, this study includes market reforms as independent variables. Second, this study uses newer time series econometric tools (unit root test and cointegration analysis) to correct for a spurious regression. Our model is robust, explaining 79.4 percent of variation. We found three independent variables (size of current account deficit, size of GDP, and value of privatization less FDI in privatized companies) to be significant. Although we found directional support for three other independent variables (degree of capital market liberalization, low inflation rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate), none of these proved significant.

Output effects of devaluation: Evidence from Asia

We study the effect of devaluation on output in six developing countries of Asia. In an empirical model that includes monetary, fiscal, and external variables, we examine the impact of devaluation as the effect of real exchange depreciation and alternatively as the effect of nominal devaluation and changes in the foreign-to-domestic price ratio. We find that with few exceptions a devaluation fails to make any effect on output over any length of time — short run, intermediate run or long run. Whatever effect on output we are able to uncover comes from the relative price level (the ratio of foreign to domestic prices) but not from nominal devaluation.

Exchange rate adjustment and output in Greece and Cyprus: evidence from panel data

This paper studies the effect of currency depreciation in Greece and Cyprus using panel data from 1969 to 1998. An empirical model, which includes monetary as well as fiscal variables in addition to exchange rates, is developed. Two versions of this model, one with the real exchange rate and another with the nominal exchange rate and foreign-to-domestic price ratio are estimated. Before estimating the model the time series properties of the data are diagnosed using unit root and cointegration tests. The estimated results suggest that the exchange rate depreciation is expansionary in the short run. In the medium and long run it is neutral to the economy.

Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries

The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on aggregate private investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand is examined using time series data from 1972–2000. Since the use of non-stationary time series data may produce spurious results, the data series are tested for stationarity using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests. After establishing the stationarity of the data series, cointegration tests are performed. The cointegration test results reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Therefore, an error correction model is developed and estimated. The estimated results point to an inconclusive empirical relationship between real exchange rate volatility and aggregate private investment.

Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration. We also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between Malaysia and Singapore and between the Philippines and Thailand. The pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses; they do not share any commonalities across the group.

Panel data evidence of the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in South-east Asia

This article examines the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the private investment in South-east Asia using panel data from four countries of the region namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Annual time series data from 1972 to 2001 is used. Before carrying out the estimation the time series properties of the data are diagnosed and an error correction model is developed and estimated. The model is estimated using both the fixed effects and the random effects estimators. The estimated results from both the estimations, suggest that the real exchange rate uncertainty had a negative effect on the private investment in that region.

Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act of 1982: A public choice analysis of turnover in the U.S. House of Representatives

The present paper uses various data sets and statistical techniques to examine the outcome of gerrymandering under the Voting Rights Act of 1982 on turnover rates in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as the competitiveness in Party primaries for House seats. Evidence presented here suggests that political redistricting at the federal level (namely for U.S. House seats) has tended to favor incumbents in both the Party primaries and general elections. In fact, some results suggest that turnover rates (for 1988) are between 8.9 and 10.3 percentage points lower within states that engaged in such redistricting efforts. Our findings generally support the main tenets of the public choice view of legislator behavior.