Kamalini Lokuge

Environmental sampling for avian influenza virus A (H5N1) in live-bird markets, Indonesia.

TOC Summary: This method is time and labor efficient and minimizes potential risk for virus aerosolization.

The Evaluation of a Rapid In Situ HIV Confirmation Test in a Programme with a High Failure Rate of the WHO HIV Two-Test Diagnostic Algorithm

Background Concerns about false-positive HIV results led to a review of testing procedures used in a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HIV programme in Bukavu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition to the WHO HIV rapid diagnostic test algorithm (RDT) (two positive RDTs alone for HIV diagnosis) used in voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) sites we evaluated in situ a practical field-based confirmation test against western blot WB. In addition, we aimed to determine the false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm compared with our adapted protocol including confirmation testing, and whether weakly reactive compared with strongly reactive rapid test results were more likely to be false positives. Methodology/Principal Findings 2864 clients presenting to MSF VCT centres in Bukavu during January to May 2006 were tested using Determine HIV-1/2® and UniGold HIV® rapid tests in parallel by nurse counsellors. Plasma samples on 229 clients confirmed as double RDT positive by laboratory retesting were further tested using both WB and the Orgenics Immunocomb Combfirm® HIV confirmation test (OIC-HIV). Of these, 24 samples were negative or indeterminate by WB representing a false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm of 10.5% (95%CI 6.6-15.2). 17 of the 229 samples were weakly positive on rapid testing and all were negative or indeterminate by WB. The false-positive rate fell to 3.3% (95%CI 1.3–6.7) when only strong-positive rapid test results were considered. Agreement between OIC-HIV and WB was 99.1% (95%CI 96.9–99.9%) with no false OIC-HIV positives if stringent criteria for positive OIC-HIV diagnoses were used. Conclusions The WHO HIV two-test diagnostic algorithm produced an unacceptably high level of false-positive diagnoses in our setting, especially if results were weakly positive. The most probable causes of the false-positive results were serological cross-reactivity or non-specific immune reactivity. Our findings show that the OIC-HIV confirmation test is practical and effective in field contexts. We propose that all double-positive HIV RDT samples should undergo further testing to confirm HIV seropositivity until the accuracy of the RDT testing algorithm has been established at programme level.

The effect of arsenic mitigation interventions on disease burden in Bangladesh.

Many interventions have been advocated to mitigate the impact of arsenic contamination of drinking water in Bangladesh. However, there are few data on the true magnitude of arsenic-related disease in Bangladesh nationally. There has also been little consideration given to possible adverse effects of such interventions, in particular, diarrheal disease. The purpose of this study was to estimate and compare the likely impacts of arsenic mitigation interventions on both arsenic-related disease and water-borne infectious disease. We found that arsenic-related disease currently results in 9,136 deaths per year and 174,174 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; undiscounted) lost per year in those exposed to arsenic concentrations > 50 μg/L. This constitutes 0.3% of the total disease burden in Bangladesh in terms of undiscounted DALYs. We found intervention to be of overall benefit in reducing disease burden in most scenarios examined, but the concomitant increase in water-related infectious disease significantly reduced the potential benefits gained from intervention. A minimum reduction in arsenic-related DALYs of 77% was necessary before intervention achieved any reduction in net disease burden. This is assuming that interventions were provided to those exposed to > 50 μg/L and would concomitantly result in a 20% increase in water-related infectious disease in those without access to adequate sanitation. Intervention appears to be justified for those populations exposed to high levels of arsenic, but it must be based on exposure levels and on the effectiveness of interventions not only in reducing arsenic but in minimizing risk of water-related infections.

Ebola viral load at diagnosis associates with patient outcome and outbreak evolution

BACKGROUND Ebola virus (EBOV) causes periodic outbreaks of life-threatening EBOV disease in Africa. Historically, these outbreaks have been relatively small and geographically contained; however, the magnitude of the EBOV outbreak that began in 2014 in West Africa has been unprecedented. The aim of this study was to describe the viral kinetics of EBOV during this outbreak and identify factors that contribute to outbreak progression. METHODS From July to December 2014, one laboratory in Sierra Leone processed over 2,700 patient samples for EBOV detection by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Viremia was measured following patient admission. Age, sex, and approximate time of symptom onset were also recorded for each patient. The data was analyzed using various mathematical models to find trends of potential interest. RESULTS The analysis revealed a significant difference (P = 2.7 × 10(-77)) between the initial viremia of survivors (4.02 log10 genome equivalents [GEQ]/ml) and nonsurvivors (6.18 log10 GEQ/ml). At the population level, patient viral loads were higher on average in July than in November, even when accounting for outcome and time since onset of symptoms. This decrease in viral loads temporally correlated with an increase in circulating EBOV-specific IgG antibodies among individuals who were suspected of being infected but shown to be negative for the virus by PCR. CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate that initial viremia is associated with outcome of the individual and outbreak duration; therefore, care must be taken in planning clinical trials and interventions. Additional research in virus adaptation and the impacts of host factors on EBOV transmission and pathogenesis is needed.

Avian Influenza H5N1 Transmission in Households, Indonesia

Background Disease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households. Methodology/Principal Findings We compared cases (n = 177) and contacts (n = 496) in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases. Conclusions/Significance The study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human-to-human transmission.

Risk factors for cluster outbreaks of avian influenza A H5N1 infection, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND By 30 July 2009, Indonesia had reported 139 outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) H5N1 infection in humans. Risk factors for case clustering remain largely unknown. This study assesses risk factors for cluster outbreaks and for secondary case infection. METHODS The 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks were compared on household and individual level variables. Variables assessed include those never reported previously, including household size and genealogical relationships between cases and their contacts. RESULTS Cluster outbreaks had larger households and more blood-related contacts, especially first-degree relatives, compared with sporadic case outbreaks. Risk factors for cluster outbreaks were the number of first-degree blood-relatives to the index case (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-1.86) and index cases having direct exposure to sources of AI H5N1 virus (aOR, 3.20; 95% CI: 1.15-8.90). Risk factors for secondary case infection were being aged between 5 and 17 years (aOR, 8.32; 95% CI: 1.72-40.25), or 18 and 30 years (aOR, 6.04; 95% CI: 1.21-30.08), having direct exposure to sources of AI H5N1 virus (aOR, 3.48; 95% CI: 1.28-9.46), and being a first-degree relative to an index case (aOR, 11.0; 95% CI: 1.43-84.66). Siblings to index cases were 5 times more likely to become secondary cases (OR, 4.72; 95% CI: 1.67-13.35). CONCLUSIONS The type of exposure and the genealogical relationship between index cases and their contacts impacts the risk of clustering. The study adds evidence that AI H5N1 infection is influenced by, and may even depend on, host genetic susceptibility.

Critical control points for avian influenza A H5N1 in live bird markets in low resource settings

Live bird markets can become contaminated with and become a source of transmission for avian influenza viruses including the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain. Many countries affected by the H5N1-virus have limited resources for programs in environmental health, sanitation and disease control in live bird markets. This study proposes five critical control points (CCPs) to reduce the risk of H5N1-virus contamination in markets in low resource settings. The CCPs were developed based on three surveys conducted in Indonesia: a cross-sectional survey in 119 markets, a knowledge, attitudes and practice survey in 3 markets and a microbiological survey in 83 markets. These surveys assessed poultry workflow, market infrastructure, hygiene and regulatory practices and microbiological contamination with the H5N1-virus. The five CCPs identified were (1) reducing risk of receiving infected birds into the market, (2) reducing the risk of virus spread between different bird flocks in holding cages, (3) reducing surface contamination by isolating slaughter processes from other poultry-related processes, (4) minimizing the potential for contamination during evisceration of carcasses and (5) reducing the risk of surface contamination in the sale zone of the market. To be relevant for low resource settings, the CCPs do not necessitate large infrastructure changes. The CCPs are suited for markets that slaughter poultry and have capacity for daily disposal and removal of solid waste from the market. However, it is envisaged that the CCPs can be adapted for the development of risk-based programs in various settings.

Transmission of influenza on international flights, May 2009.

Understanding the dynamics of influenza transmission on international flights is necessary for prioritizing public health response to pandemic incursions. A retrospective cohort study to ascertain in-flight transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza-like illness (ILI) was undertaken for 2 long-haul flights entering Australia during May 2009. Combined results, including survey responses from 319 (43%) of 738 passengers, showed that 13 (2%) had an ILI in flight and an ILI developed in 32 (5%) passengers during the first week post arrival. Passengers were at 3.6% increased risk of contracting pandemic (H1N1) 2009 if they sat in the same row as or within 2 rows of persons who were symptomatic preflight. A closer exposed zone (2 seats in front, 2 seats behind, and 2 seats either side) increased the risk for postflight disease to 7.7%. Efficiency of contact tracing without compromising the effectiveness of the public health intervention might be improved by limiting the exposed zone.

A Randomised intervention trial to assess two arsenic mitigation options in Bangladesh

Arsenic groundwater contamination in Bangladesh warrants immediate remediation. This randomised controlled intervention trial was conducted to determine the effectiveness of two possible interventions: dug wells and three-pitcher filters. A total of 640 individuals participated with 218 randomised to the dug well group, 216 to the three-pitcher group and 206 to a control group. Data were collected at baseline and at 1, 6 and 12 months after the intervention. Self reported compliance with dug wells remained below 20% during the entire 12 months of the study. The compliance with the three-pitcher filters decreased after 6 months and became similar to the compliance of the dug well group after 12 months. A substantial decrease in urinary arsenic metabolites occurred only among those who were compliant with dug wells and three-pitcher filter systems after 1 month of intervention as opposed to control participants. However, a persistent reduction in urinary arsenic concentrations was observed only among the dug well users after 12 months of intervention. Our results show that a functional dug well could be offered as a long-term alternative to tube wells, but use of this option is likely to be low, unless appropriate behavioural change measures are taken. Our study also demonstrates that arsenic removal technologies such as three-pitcher filters are an effective option as a short-term measure. The three-pitcher filters that are not adequately maintained are not an effective option for a year. These arsenic removal technologies may be even harmful in the long term if the resultant water quality is not properly monitored.

Conflict in the Indian Kashmir Valley I: exposure to violence

BackgroundIndia and Pakistan have disputed ownership of the Kashmir Valley region for many years, resulting in several conflicts since the end of partition in 1947. Very little is known about the prevalence of violence and insecurity in this population.MethodsWe undertook a two-stage cluster household survey in two districts (30 villages) of the Indian part of Kashmir to assess experiences with violence and mental health status among the conflict-affected Kashmiri population. The article presents our findings for confrontations with violence. Data were collected for recent events (last 3 months) and those occurring since the start of the conflict. Informed consent was obtained for all interviews.Results510 interviews were completed. Respondents reported frequent direct confrontations with violence since the start of conflict, including exposure to crossfire (85.7%), round up raids (82.7%), the witnessing of torture (66.9%), rape (13.3%), and self-experience of forced labour (33.7%), arrests/kidnapping (16.9%), torture (12.9%), and sexual violence (11.6%). Males reported more confrontations with violence than females, and had an increased likelihood of having directly experienced physical/mental maltreatment (OR 3.9, CI: 2.7–5.7), violation of their modesty (OR 3.6, CI: 1.9–6.8) and injury (OR 3.5, CI: 1.4–8.7). Males also had high odds of self-being arrested/kidnapped (OR 8.0, CI: 4.1–15.5).ConclusionThe civilian population in Kashmir is exposed to high levels of violence, as demonstrated by the high frequency of deliberate events as detention, hostage, and torture. The reported violence may result in substantial health, including mental health problems. Males reported significantly more confrontations with almost all violent events; this can be explained by higher participation in outdoor activities.