Kanak Patel

The Conditional Distribution of Real Estate Returns: Are Higher Moments Time Varying?

Previous research has shown that the returns on individual properties and listed property securities are skewed. This claim is investigated in the context of listed U.K. property companies and U.S. REITs. In particular, the shape of the conditional distribution of total monthly returns is examined for a group of 20 U.K. companies and 20 REITs. Also investigated is the claim that the skewness found in property returns varies over time. Using the model of Hansen (1994), it is found that while a large portion of property security returns in the sample do exhibit skewness in the conditional distribution only in a few instances is there time variation in the skewness parameter. There is little evidence to suggest that skewness is associated with the economic cycle.

An analysis of the trends and cyclical behaviours of house prices in the Asian markets

This paper examines the time‐series behaviour of house prices for the four Asian markets, namely, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Taipei, by using structural time‐series methodology. The paper assumes two types of trend models to characterise and compare the long‐run movement of house prices. It also examines the cyclical pattern hidden in the series. The long‐run trend rate in these markets ranged between approximately 1.6 and 3.2 per cent per annum. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei have relatively higher figures, which could be expected in light of the rapidly growing economies. Surprisingly, their cyclical patterns were fairly similar, although causes of the cycles differed. The markets were found to have stochastic cycles of around one year, two to four years and seven to ten years, which were consistent with previous findings on real business cycles commonly observed internationally in other macroeconomic time series. However, the found stochastic nature suggests all these markets are not in a steady state and is still changing.

Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market

Abstract The real options approach to valuation of property investment suggests that various sources of uncertainty about future returns on investment have important effects on irreversible property investment decisions. Our aim in this study has been to examine how investment decisions at three main stages of the property development/investment processes respond to different sources of uncertainty. Based on the methodology developed by Episcopos (1995) , the neo-classical proposition of Hartman-Abel that predicts a positive investment-uncertainty relationship is tested against that proposed by the real option theory. It is interesting to note that our empirical findings are generally consistent with the prediction of the real option theory that uncertainty increases the option value to wait for the arrival of new information thus decreasing the current investment activities. In periods of high volatility, we would expect investors in the property market to be more prudent and scale down their investment exposure to market volatility compared with periods of a relatively stable market environment.

Lessons from the FOX residential property futures and mortgage interest rate futures market

Abstract On May 9, 1991, the London Futures and Options Exchange (FOX) introduced four property futures contracts to make possible the development of facilities for hedging, arbitrage, and price discovery in the commercial and residential markets. Two contracts were based on the Nationwide Anglia Building Society house price (NAHP) index and the FOX mortgage interest rate (MIR) index. Trading in the contracts was suspended in October 1991, partly because they failed to gain economically viable trading volume. To identify reasons for the failure, this article analyzes the opportunities and difficulties of using such contracts. The main findings are that (1) owing to lag dependence in the NAHP index, the futures contract did not provide the economic benefit from hedging market risk that stock index contracts provide and (2) potential arbitrageurs and speculators were deterred from using the MIR index contract because of high transaction costs and long time lags involved in processing new mortgage loans.

Implied Volatility in the U.K. Commercial Property Market: Empirical Evidence Based on Transaction Data

The primary aim of this research is to compute implied volatility based on a stochastic contingent claim valuation model proposed by Dixit and Pindyck (1994). Over the sample period of 1984 to 1997, and with approximately 20,000 commercial property transactions in the United Kingdom, we find that implied volatility of rental returns is in the region of 24.83 percent. Over the same sample period, the historical and conditional standard deviations of the log returns of transaction-based rental series is estimated to be 15.60 percent and 35.64 percent, respectively. The tests of information content of these risk measures show that there is strong orthogonality in the information impounded in implied volatility estimates compared to that contained in historical standard deviations.

Empirical evaluation of the value of waiting to invest

The lack of transaction data has been identified as one of the major obstacles for the empirical evaluation of real option. Quigg’s study in 1993 was one of the first to empirically estimate the premium for the option of waiting to develop using data from 2,700 land sales in Seattle. This study modified Quigg’s methodology and applied it to estimate the premium for the option of waiting to develop based on a sample of data from 2,286 property transactions in the UK collected over a 14‐year sample period from 1984 to 1997. Based on a one‐factor contingent claim valuation model, we found that the average premiums for the timing options were 28.78 percent for office sector, 25.75 percent for industrial sector and 16.06 percent for retail sector. We also tested the robustness of the theoretical‐based land value estimates in explaining the market‐based land values. The regression results showed a statistically significant relationship in logarithm form between the market‐based residual land value and the model‐based land values (with embedded timing option), with R2 of 0.75, 0.79 and 0.82 for office, industrial and the retail sectors respectively.

Expected Default Probabilities in Structural Models: Empirical Evidence

We apply a set of structural models (Black and Cox 1976; Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein 2001; Ericsson and Reneby 1998; Leland and Toft 1996; Longstaff and Schwartz 1995; Merton 1974) to estimate expected default probabilities (EDPs) for a sample of failed and non-failed UK real estate companies. Results are generally consistent with models’ predictions and estimates of EDPs for different models are closely clustered. The results of z-scores and synthetic ratings misclassify 33% of the total sample in contrast to 8% misclassification by structural models. Further analysis of EDPs based on logistic regressions suggests the observed misclassification of the companies by structural models is due to special company management and/or regulatory circumstances rather than limitations of these models.

Effects of portfolio diversification on property investment company stock prices: 1983‐1994

Analyses the diversification effects of the portfolio holdings of ten selected listed property investment companies on the co‐movement of the stock prices for an 11‐year period from 1983 to 1994. The long‐term common trends in the sample securitized property companies are tested using the bivariate and the Johansen’s multivariate cointegration methodologies. The empirical evidence does not reject the hypothesis that prediction of the price variation of one stock based on the change in the price of another comparable stock is possible in the long term. Also, the price convergence process was not dependent on whether two companies are practising the same diversification and/or specialisation policies. However, there is evidence that companies with large portfolio holdings can influence the stock prices of property companies with smaller portfolio holdings. This implies that arbitraging the small stocks by reading the price movement of the large firms could give possible abnormal returns to the investor.

Pricing of Reverse Mortgage on Forward House Sale

This paper aims to analyse the risks involved in reverse mortgage on a forward sale of house by elderly homeowner. We provide a practical solution to institutions planning to issue such reverse mortgages. We propose the formation of Senior Citizens Housing Trust for retired homeowners who wish to sell their homes forward in order to raise cash through reverse mortgages. Under a forward house sale agreement, the homeowner enters into a contract to transfer the property to SCH at the time of their death in exchange for reverse mortgage on the property. The SCH Trust reverse annuity mortgage enables homeowner to draw down the full home equity over their remaining life

Agricultural Land Conversion and Inheritence Tax in Japan

In this paper we investigate theoretically the extent to which the development timing of agricultural land conversion would be hastened by the introduction of inheritence tax. We extend the optimal timing of wealth maximizing value use models by Scouras (1978), Anderson (1993) and Kanemoto (1996) to examine cases where tax rates vary according to land use with (i) almost no income and (ii) high income use, such as rental housing. We first model landowner’s behavior within the life cycle dynamic optimization framework and then simulate the impact of inheritence tax on the optimal timing of development. Some notable predictions about optimal timing of development emerge from our numerical analysis: no inheritence tax effect is observed for landowners whose inheritence probability is less than 1% (that is, landowners in the age group 40 or below) and whose inheritence tax rate is less than 10%. However, the optimal timing of development drops to below one year for landowners whose inheritence probability is more than 18% and whose tax rate is 30%.