Karel Janda

Time-Frequency Dynamics of Biofuels-Fuels-Food System

For the first time, we apply the wavelet coherence methodology on biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and a wide range of related commodities (gasoline, diesel, crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugarcane and rapeseed oil). This way, we are able to investigate dynamics of correlations in time and across scales (frequencies) with a model-free approach. We show that correlations indeed vary in time and across frequencies. We find two highly correlated pairs which are strongly connected at low frequencies – ethanol with corn and biodiesel with German diesel – during almost the whole analyzed period (2003–2011). Structure of correlations remarkably changes during the food crisis — higher frequencies become important for both mentioned pairs. This implies that during stable periods, ethanol is correlated with corn and biodiesel is correlated with German diesel mainly at low frequencies so that they follow a common long-term trend. However, in the crisis periods, ethanol (biodiesel) is led by corn (German diesel) even at high frequencies (low scales), which implies that the biofuels prices react more rapidly to the changes in their producing factors.

Selective Reporting and the Social Cost of Carbon

We examine potential selective reporting (publication bias) in the literature on the social cost of carbon (SCC) by conducting a meta-analysis of 809 estimates of the SCC reported in 101 studies. Our results indicate that estimates for which the 95% confidence interval includes zero are less likely to be reported than estimates excluding negative values of the SCC, which might create an upward bias in the literature. The evidence for selective reporting is stronger for studies published in peer-reviewed journals than for unpublished papers. We show that the findings are not driven by the asymmetry of the confidence intervals surrounding the SCC and are robust to controlling for various characteristics of study design and to alternative definitions of confidence intervals. Our estimates of the mean reported SCC corrected for the selective reporting bias range between USD 0 and 134 per ton of carbon at 2010 prices for emission year 2015.

Credit Support for Export: Robust Evidence from the Czech Republic

The topic of this paper is quite a novel one – it is one of few empirical academic papers dealing with export credit. Moreover, it is the first analysis of this kind which focuses on transition economies. The paper deals with export credit promotion in the Czech Republic. The development and structure of Czech trade and export support is presented first, followed by an econometric analysis of the gravity model of Czech Republic trade. A panel of 160 countries in 1996–2008 is analysed and two gravity models of exports for the Czech Republic are estimated, the static model by fixed effects (LSDV estimator) and the dynamic model by System GMM. Due to ambiguous conclusions we assume that the behaviour of our explanatory variables is not uniform and our data set behaves as a mixture of countries with heterogeneous behaviour. This means that traditional techniques of estimation which include all observations into one model do not give significant results. Thus, we use robust techniques of estimation that solve the problem of heterogeneous patterns in data sets. Out of several possibilities we use the Least Trimmed Squares estimator (LTS) with a leverage point. We show that guarantees are a significant factor that influences positively the volume of exports in the Czech Republic. Moreover, there exist more variables that affect the size of exports in the Czech Republic. Market forces described by GDP, distance, political risk or gross fix capital formation are significant in our econometric model. We find that higher GDP, shorter distance or lower political risk have a positive impact on Czech exports.

Bankruptcies with Soft Budget Constraint

The optimal design of credit contracts and bankruptcy procedures is an important policy question in both developed and developing economies. In this paper we deal with several theoretical considerations related to these important policy problems. The main concern of this paper is with the impact of the relaxation of bankruptcy procedures providing for the possibility of debt renegotiation instead of strictly imposing bankruptcy whenever the debtor falls into default on his or her debt. This paper contributes to the discussion on optimal bankruptcy procedures in the context of soft and hard budget constraint literature.

Mutual Responsiveness of Biofuels, Fuels and Food Prices

We propose a new approach to analyze relationships and dependencies between price series. For the biofuels markets and the related commodities, we study their mutual responsiveness, which can be understood as price cross-elasticities. Several methodological caveats are uncovered and discussed. We find that both ethanol and biodiesel prices are responsive to their production factors as well as their substitute fossil fuels (ethanol with corn, sugarcane and the US gasoline; and biodiesel with soybeans and German diesel). Responsiveness of all significant pairs increased remarkably during the food crisis of 2007/2008. Causality tests further show that price changes in producing factors lead the changes in biofuels, yet for some price levels, the direction is reversed.

Determinants of Profitability of Polish Rural Micro-Enterprises at the Time of EU Accession

Abstract Rural micro-enterprises are an important factor in sustainable rural development in post-transitional Eastern Europe. This paper deals with determining the key factors influencing profitability in rural micro-enterprises in Poland. The research design was based on a questionnaire survey of 300 rural micro-enterprises in the food-processing sector in rich and poor Polish provinces. The analysis carried out in this study is centered around the Polish EU accession in May 2004. Similar to other related studies, our results show that EU accession was not perceived as a major change by rural Polish micro-entrepreneurs and that the EU related factors were not significant determinants of their profitability. However, our results also show that the success of the rural food processing micro-enterprise in Eastern Europe is most related to its owner/manager and enterprise characteristics. For the owner/manager the most significant determinants are his/her age and risk-taking as the main motive for establishing an enterprise. The enterprise characteristics that determine the profitability include enterprise location within a region with competitive situation, enterprise size (being a sole trader or family enterprise), IC T advancements in enterprise and the fact whether the enterprise has any certificates for its products. The results have significant implications for the researchers and policy-makers and can become a basis for preparing relevant enterprise support policies in post-transitional Eastern Europe

Co-Movements of Ethanol Related Prices: Evidence from Brazil and the USA

We use the wavelet coherence methodology to investigate relations between prices of ethanol and its feedstocks. Our continuous wavelet framework allows for discovering price connections and their evolution in both time and frequency domain in the most important ethanol markets – Brazil and the USA. For both of these markets we show that the long-run relationship between prices of ethanol and corn (in USA) or sugar (in Brazil) is positive, strong and stable in time. Importantly, we show that the prices of feedstock lead the prices of ethanol and not the other way around. The price lead of feedstock is documented for both short and long run horizons. Our qualitative results hold true even when the influence of crude oil prices is accounted for by utilizing partial wavelet coherence approach.

Determinants of the financial performance of microfinance institutions in Central Asia

This article analyses the determinants of the earnings performance of microfinance institutions in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, Afghanistan and China in 1998–2011. It confirms that targeting women borrowers improves the financial results of microfinance institutions whereas the effectiveness of group lending or advantages of rural lending, in contrast to the initial expectations, were not confirmed. It also considers the contributions of different governance forms of microfinance institutions and the macroeconomic factors potentially influencing the financial performance of microfinance institutions.

Can investment in microfinance funds improve risk-return characteristics of a portfolio?

AbstractThis article is concerned with contribution of microfinance investment funds to a sustainable financial portfolio. With regard to the dependence of microfinance funds’ returns on the performance of stock and fixed income markets in developed and emerging economies we find slightly negative correlation when measured by the portfolio beta measure. Our regression analysis confirms that returns on investment in microfinance investment funds exceed the returns on the market portfolio. This result together with reported near-to-zero beta estimates as a proxy for the systematic risk may be taken to be a clear financial advantage of an inclusion of microfinance assets in a portfolio compared to pure stock or bond portfolios. The results based on CAPM beta and Jensens alpha are confirmed by mean-variance spanning test. We show that the socially responsible investors may invest into microfinance without sacrifice with respect to pure financial indicators.

Consumer Loss in Czech Photovoltaic Power Plants

This article provides a financial survey of a small sample of Czech photovoltaic (PV) plants. To evaluate the extent of market losses, we calculate the shadow market price of solar electricity. From the profit and loss accounts of the PV plants and the shadow market price we estimate the total economic loss generated by PV electricity sector in the Czech Republic. The presented microeconomic approach has two main advantages: Firstly, we work with real observed data, which offsets the drawback of a limited sample. Secondly, the profit accounting calculation enables sensitivity analysis with respect to key variables of the plants. We show that money invested in PV plants would generate an annual loss of 8%. Given the estimated solar assets of CZK 165.6 billion (EUR 6.6 billion) as of December 2011, this translates in at least CZK 12.6 billion lost in the Czech solar sector in 2012. About 43% of this loss is due to high technology costs and corresponds to pure dead weight loss, while the remaining 57% constitute the redistributive profit component of subsidies. Finally, we calculate that unless electricity prices increase or technology costs decrease approximately sevenfold, PV plants will remain loss making.