Karel Kouba

The Czech Greens revived

After the June 2006 elections, the Czech Greens (SZ) were the surprise kingmaker, finally opting for a centre-right coalition with the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and the Christian Democratic Union (KDU). Like other East European Greens, SZ emerged in the first post-communist elections only to quickly disappear. Its recent success is attributable to the Green ‘brand name’, its new party leadership and political orientation, and the major liberal party’s collapse. However, this does not mean the internal and systemic challenges facing SZ are over. Given the environmental degradation under communism, most notably the tremendous air pollution in northern Bohemia and Moravia, ecological issues were salient enough for SZ to win 4.1% in the 1990 elections, obtaining its highest support in the ecologically devastated regions. The elections were won by Civic Forum (OF), a broad anti-communist coalition which soon began to disintegrate. In the inchoate party system, the Green Party also began to fade. For the 1992 elections, it formed a coalition with the Agrarians and Socialists, placing it well on the left. The coalition won over 6% of the vote, but twothirds of the Green members left the party over the coalition agreement. By 1996 SZ was in such disarray that it did not even contest the parliamentary elections, and in 2001 it was down to 239 members, most of whom were older, had little formal education, and did not hold the post-materialist values often associated with the Greens (Jehlicka and Kostelecky 2003). The 1996 elections also marked the comparative consolidation of the Czech party system. The centre-right Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and centre-left Czech Party of Social Democracy (CSSD) each average about 30% of the vote, the unreformed Communists (KSCM) slightly over 10%, and the Christian Democrats (KDU) slightly under 10%, with only the liberals floating among various parties since the revolution.

Evaluating the Effects of the EU Common Agriculture Policy in a New Member State: The Case of the Czech Republic

This article examines the impact of the CAP on the Czech Republic. Specifically, it focuses on implementation of the CAP and its economic, social and political effects, as well as the domestic debate about CAP reform. It argues that CAP implementation has gone fairly smoothly and the economic and social effects of the CAP have been generally positive or at least neutral. It also argues that while the CAP has had only a minimal impact on domestic politics, the domestic politics of agriculture could inhibit a strong Czech position in favour of CAP reform, even though the Czech Republic would generally benefit from further liberalization of the CAP.

Party Institutionalization and the Removal of Presidential Term Limits in Latin America

An explanation of the recent wave of constitutional changes in favor of more permissive reelection rules in Latin America is presented based on a principal-agent model of intraparty relations within the presidential party. The theoretical model suggests causal mechanisms through which institutionalized presidential parties constrain the decision to scrap term limits. The theoretical implications are tested using both quantitative and qualitative evidence. Results from logistic regression suggest that the likelihood of removing term limits in Latin American countries (1990-2013) significantly declines with the level of presidential party institutionalization. Case study evidence illustrates the operation of the theoretically-derived causal mechanisms.

Proč ubývají voliči a neplatné hlasy ve druhých kolech českých senátních voleb

The second rounds of elections to the Czech Senate consistently suffer from the lowest voter turnout among all types of elections in the Czech Republic. Moreover, voter turnout and the share of invalid votes decrease substantially between the first and the second rounds of the Senate elections. This article enquires into the causes of the decrease. It builds on theories that emphasise the salience of elections and the decisiveness of voting and using data from all Senate electoral races between 1996 and 2012 tests several theoretical predictions drawn from these theories. Two types of regression models are employed to test these hypotheses. Surprisingly, the findings show that neither the closeness of the electoral race nor the presence of an incumbent or a communist candidate has an influence on voter turnout. The decrease in turnout between rounds and between electoral cycles is best explained by the fact that first-round elections coincide with other types of elections, and by the lack of ideologically polarised electoral races in the second rounds and the fragmentation of the first round contest. The substantial number of invalid votes in the fi rst rounds can be attributed to voting error rather than deliberate electoral behaviour. The article closes with several suggestions regarding the electoral system used in the Czech Senate elections and with a discussion of the implications of the findings for current research.

Fragmentation of presidential elections and governability crises in Latin America: a curvilinear relationship?

ABSTRACT Part of the literature views high numbers of presidential candidates as a threat to political stability in presidential democracies. A contradictory model proposes that an overconcentration of the presidential party system is problematic. Both models are hard to reconcile. We approach this puzzle by arguing that the relationship between the level of presidential election fragmentation and governability crises is curvilinear: both very low and very high effective numbers of presidential candidates increase the risk of governability crisis. We test this theoretical claim with ordered logit models drawing on a sample of 108 presidencies in Latin America between 1978 and 2013 and using an ordinal index of the intensity of crisis as the dependent variable. We explore the operation of the theorized causal mechanisms through case studies and argue that they are different at both extremes, high and low levels of fragmentation. Finally, we formulate implications for the design of presidential electoral rules drawing on the debate contrasting runoff and plurality rules.