Karen Gunson

Epidemiology of Sudden Cardiac Death: Clinical and Research Implications

The current annual incidence of sudden cardiac death in the United States is likely to be in the range of 180,000 to 250,000 per year. Coinciding with the decreased mortality from coronary artery disease, there is evidence pointing toward a significant decrease in rates of sudden cardiac death in the United States during the second half of the 20th century. However, the alarming rise in prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the first decade of the new millennium both in the United States and worldwide, would indicate that this favorable trend is unlikely to persist. We are likely to witness a resurgence of coronary artery disease and heart failure, as a result of which sudden cardiac death will have to be confronted as a shared and indiscriminate, worldwide public health problem. There is also increasing recognition of the fact that discovery of meaningful and relevant risk stratification and prevention methodologies will require careful prospective community-wide analyses, with access to large archives of DNA, serum, and tissue that link with well-phenotyped databases. The purpose of this review is to summarize current knowledge of sudden cardiac death epidemiology. We will discuss the significance and strengths of community-wide evaluations of sudden cardiac death, summarize recent observations from such studies, and finally highlight specific potential predictors that warrant further evaluation as determinants of sudden cardiac death in the general population.

Prolonged Tpeak-to-Tend Interval on the Resting ECG Is Associated With Increased Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death

Background— Early studies indicate that prolongation of the interval between the peak and the end of the T wave (Tpeak to Tend [TpTe]) on the 12-lead ECG is a marker of ventricular arrhythmogenesis. However, community-based studies have not been conducted. Methods and Results— TpTe and other ECG predictors were evaluated in the ongoing Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study based in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area using a case-control design. Cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) (n=353; mean age, 66.6 years; 95% CI, 65.1 to 68.1 years; 67% men) were compared with living controls with coronary artery disease (n=342; mean age, 64.7 years; 95% CI, 63.4 to 66.0 years; 69% men) from the same region. Analysis of TpTe and selected ECG intervals was limited to sinus rhythm 12-lead ECGs. For cases, these were obtained before and unrelated to SCD. Independent-samples t tests and multiple logistic regression were used. Mean TpTe was significantly greater in cases (89.4 ms; 95% CI, 87.7 to 91.2 ms; P<0.0001) than in controls (76.1 ms; 95% CI, 74.8 to 77.4 ms). The other ECG intervals (corrected QT interval [QTc], QRS duration [QRSD], and TpTe/QT ratio) also were significantly prolonged among cases versus controls (P⩽0.01). TpTe remained a significant predictor of SCD after adjusting for age, sex, QTc, QRSD, and left ventricular function. Odds of SCD increased more with a 1-SD increase in TpTe (12 ms) among subjects with prolonged QRSD (odds ratio, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.06 to 5.91) than with a 1-SD increase in TpTe among subjects with normal QRSD (odds ratio, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.65 to 2.32). TpTe remained significantly associated with SCD in subjects with normal QTc. Conclusions— Prolongation of the TpTe interval measured in lead V5 was independently associated with SCD, with particular utility when the QTc was normal or not measurable because of prolonged QRSD.

Determinants of Prolonged QT Interval and Their Contribution to Sudden Death Risk in Coronary Artery Disease: The Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study

Background— In a recent cohort study, prolongation of the corrected QT interval (QTc) was associated with an independent increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). We evaluated determinants of prolonged QTc and the relationship of prolonged QTc to SCD risk among patients with coronary artery disease in the general population. Methods and Results— A case-control design was used. Cases were SCD patients with coronary artery disease among a metropolitan area of 1 000 000 residents (2002 to 2006); controls were area residents with coronary artery disease but no history of SCD. All cases were required to have an ECG suitable for QTc analysis before and unrelated to the occurrence of SCD. A total of 373 cases and 309 controls met criteria for analysis. Mean QTc was significantly longer in cases than in controls (450±45 versus 433±37 ms; P<0.0001). In a multivariate model, gender, diabetes mellitus, and QTc-prolonging drugs were significant determinants of QTc prolongation in controls. In a logistic regression model predicting SCD, diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 2.96) and use of QTc-prolonging drugs (odds ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 4.37) were significant predictors of SCD among subjects with normal or borderline QTc. However, abnormally prolonged QTc in the absence of diabetes and QT-prolonging medications was the strongest predictor of SCD (odds ratio, 5.53; 95% confidence interval, 3.20 to 9.57). Conclusions— Diabetes mellitus and QTc-affecting drugs determined QTc prolongation and were predictors of SCD in coronary artery disease. However, idiopathic abnormal QTc prolongation was associated with 5-fold increased odds of SCD. A continued search for novel determinants of QTc prolongation such as genomic factors is likely to enhance risk stratification for SCD in coronary artery disease.

A Community-Based Evaluation of Sudden Death Associated with Therapeutic Levels of Methadone

BACKGROUND Published case reports have associated the therapeutic use of methadone with the occasional occurrence of sudden cardiac death. Because of the established utility of this drug and with the eventual goal of enhancing safety of use, we performed a community-based study to evaluate this association. METHODS During a 4-year period, we prospectively evaluated all patients who consecutively had sudden cardiac death and underwent investigation by the medical examiner in the metropolitan area of Portland, Ore. Case subjects of interest were those with a therapeutic blood level of methadone (<1 mg/L), and case comparison subjects were those with no methadone identified. Patients with recreational drug use or any drug overdose were excluded from either group. Detailed autopsies were conducted, including the detection and quantification of all substances in the blood. RESULTS A total of 22 sudden cardiac death cases with therapeutic levels of methadone (mean 0.48+/-0.22 mg/L; range 0.1-0.9 mg/L) were identified (mean age 37.0+/-10 years, 68% were male) and compared with 106 consecutive sudden cardiac death cases without evidence of methadone (mean age 42+/-13 years, 69% were male). The most common indication for methadone use was pain control (n=12, 55%). Among cases receiving methadone therapy, sudden death-associated cardiac abnormalities were identified in only 23% (n=5), with no clear cause of sudden cardiac death in the remaining 77% (n=17). Among cases with no methadone, sudden death-associated cardiac abnormalities were identified in 60% (n=64, P=.002). CONCLUSION The significantly lower prevalence of cardiac disease in the case group implicates methadone, even at therapeutic levels, as a likely cause of sudden death. These findings point toward an association between methadone and occurrence of sudden death in the community. Clinical safeguards and further prospective studies specifically designed to enhance safety of methadone use are warranted.

Public Health Burden of Sudden Cardiac Death in the United States

Background—Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a leading cause of death in the United States, but the relative public health burden is unknown. We estimated the burden of premature death from SCD and compared it with other diseases. Methods and Results—Analyses were based on the following data sources (using most recent sources that provided appropriately stratified data): (1) leading causes of death among men and women from 2009 US death certificate reporting; (2) individual cancer mortality rates from 2008 death certificate reporting from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Program of Cancer Registries; (3) county, state, and national population data for 2009 from the US Census Bureau; and (4) SCD rates from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (SUDS) population-based surveillance study of SCD between 2002 and 2004. Cases were identified from multiple sources in a prospectively designed surveillance program. Incidence, counts, and years of potential life lost for SCD and other major diseases were compared. The age-adjusted national incidence of SCD was 60 per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval, 54–66 per 100 000). The burden of premature death for men (2.04 million years of potential life lost; 95% uncertainty interval, 1.86–2.23 million) and women (1.29 million years of potential life lost; 95% uncertainty interval, 1.13–1.45 million) was greater for SCD than for all individual cancers and most other leading causes of death. Conclusions—The societal burden of SCD is high relative to other major causes of death. Accordingly, improved national surveillance with the goal of optimizing and monitoring SCD prevention and treatment should be a high priority.

Women Have a Lower Prevalence of Structural Heart Disease as a Precursor to Sudden Cardiac Arrest: The Ore-SUDS (Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study)

OBJECTIVES Our aim was to utilize a community-based approach to identify sex-related differences in risk factors for sudden cardiac arrest (SCA). BACKGROUND There are significant sex-based differences in prevalence and manifestation of SCA. Any differences related to predictors of SCA in women versus men are likely to have implications for risk stratification and prevention. METHODS The Ore-SUDS (Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study) is an ongoing prospective investigation of SCA in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area (population approximately 1 million). All cases meeting criteria for SCA were ascertained using multiple sources. Medical records were reviewed to identify clinical conditions that may contribute to SCA risk, and comparisons were made between male and female SCA cases using Pearsons chi-square tests for categorical variables, t tests for continuous variables, and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS During 2002 to 2007, 1,568 adult SCA cases were identified (women 36% vs. men 64%; p < 0.0001) and women were older (mean age 71 +/- 14 years vs. 65 +/- 14 years, p < 0.0001). There were no significant sex differences in prevalence of obesity, dyslipidemia, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma, left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy, or history of myocardial infarction. In multivariate analysis, women were significantly less likely to have severe LV dysfunction (odds ratio: 0.51; 95% confidence interval: 0.31 to 0.84) or previously recognized coronary artery disease (odds ratio: 0.34; 95% confidence interval: 0.20 to 0.60) compared with men. CONCLUSIONS Women were significantly less likely than men to have a diagnosis of structural heart disease (LV dysfunction or coronary artery disease) before SCA. These findings suggest that fewer women may be eligible for prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement based on current guidelines and therefore may not have equal opportunity for prevention. Enhancement of SCA risk stratification may have even higher importance for women.

Identification of a Sudden Cardiac Death Susceptibility Locus at 2q24.2 through Genome-Wide Association in European Ancestry Individuals

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to be one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, with an annual incidence estimated at 250,000–300,000 in the United States and with the vast majority occurring in the setting of coronary disease. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis in 1,283 SCD cases and >20,000 control individuals of European ancestry from 5 studies, with follow-up genotyping in up to 3,119 SCD cases and 11,146 controls from 11 European ancestry studies, and identify the BAZ2B locus as associated with SCD (P = 1.8×10−10). The risk allele, while ancestral, has a frequency of ∼1.4%, suggesting strong negative selection and increases risk for SCD by 1.92–fold per allele (95% CI 1.57–2.34). We also tested the role of 49 SNPs previously implicated in modulating electrocardiographic traits (QRS, QT, and RR intervals). Consistent with epidemiological studies showing increased risk of SCD with prolonged QRS/QT intervals, the interval-prolonging alleles are in aggregate associated with increased risk for SCD (P = 0.006).

Sudden Cardiac Arrest During Sports Activity in Middle Age

Background— Sports-associated sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur mostly during middle age. We sought to determine the burden, characteristics, and outcomes of SCA during sports among middle-aged residents of a large US community. Methods and Results— Patients with SCA who were 35 to 65 years of age were identified in a large, prospective, population-based study (2002–2013), with systematic and comprehensive assessment of their lifetime medical history. Of the 1247 SCA cases, 63 (5%) occurred during sports activities at a mean age of 51.1±8.8 years, yielding an incidence of 21.7 (95% confidence interval, 8.1–35.4) per 1 million per year. The incidence varied significantly by sex, with a higher incidence among men (relative risk, 18.68; 95% confidence interval, 2.50–139.56) for sports SCAs compared with all other SCAs (relative risk 2.58; 95% confidence interval, 2.12–3.13). Sports SCA was also more likely to be a witnessed event (87% versus 53%; P<0.001) with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (44% versus 25%; P=0.001) and ventricular fibrillation (84% versus 51%; P<0.0001). Survival to hospital discharge was higher for sports-associated SCA (23.2% versus 13.6%; P=0.04). Sports SCA cases presented with known preexisting cardiac disease in 16% and ≥1 cardiovascular risk factors in 56%, and overall, 36% of cases had typical cardiovascular symptoms during the week preceding the SCA. Conclusions— Sports-associated SCA in middle age represents a relatively small proportion of the overall SCA burden, reinforcing the idea of the high-benefit, low-risk nature of sports activity. Especially in light of current population aging trends, our findings emphasize that targeted education could maximize both safety and acceptance of sports activity in the older athlete.

Factors Associated With Pulseless Electric Activity Versus Ventricular Fibrillation The Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study

Background— Corresponding with a continuing decline in the prevalence of sudden cardiac arrest cases presenting with ventricular fibrillation (VF), there has been a significant rise in the prevalence of pulseless electrical activity (PEA). Given significantly lower survival from PEA versus VF, we comprehensively investigated PEA correlates by incorporating first-responder data with lifetime clinical history information. Methods and Results— In the Portland, Ore, metropolitan area (population ≈1 million), cases of out-of-hospital sudden cardiac arrest who underwent attempted resuscitation were identified prospectively (2002–2007). Those presenting with PEA versus VF and asystole were compared with &khgr;2 tests, ANOVA, and logistic regression. A total of 1277 cases aged ≥18 years underwent resuscitation by first responders (mean age, 65±16 years; 67% male). Presenting arrhythmia was VF in 48%, PEA in 25%, and asystole/other in the remainder. Compared with VF cases, PEA cases were older (mean age, 68 versus 63 years; P=0.0002), more likely to be female (37% versus 26%; P=0.0008), and less likely to survive to hospital discharge (6% versus 25%; P<0.0001). A history of syncope was strongly associated with PEA (odds ratio, 2.6; confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.3) after adjustment for age, gender, response time, and arrest circumstances. Black race was also independently associated with PEA (odds ratio, 2.6; confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.4). Pulmonary disease and female gender were significant factors associated with PEA (P for interaction=0.04). In a subgroup analysis of resting ECGs (n=391), there were no differences in cardiac clinical history or prevalence of cardiac conduction system disease (PEA, 31.6% versus VF, 32.2%; P=0.48). Conclusions— PEA cases had a significantly higher prevalence of syncope in their lifetime, with other correlates, including black race, that were distinct from VF cases. Potential mechanistic links between syncope and future manifestation with PEA warrant further exploration.

Frequency and Determinants of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Deployment Among Primary Prevention Candidates With Subsequent Sudden Cardiac Arrest in the Community

Background— The prevalence rates and influencing factors for deployment of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) among subjects who eventually experience sudden cardiac arrest in the general population have not been evaluated. Methods and Results— Cases of adult sudden cardiac arrest with echocardiographic evaluation before the event were identified from the ongoing Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (population approximately 1 million). Eligibility for primary ICD implantation was determined from medical records based on established guidelines. The frequency of prior primary ICD implantation in eligible subjects was evaluated, and ICD nonrecipients were characterized. Of 2093 cases (2003–2012), 448 had appropriate pre– sudden cardiac arrest left ventricular ejection fraction information available. Of these, 92 (20.5%) were eligible for primary ICD implantation, 304 (67.9%) were ineligible because of left ventricular ejection fraction >35%, and the remainder (52, 11.6%) had left ventricular ejection fraction ⩽35% but were ineligible on the basis of clinical guideline criteria. Among eligible subjects, only 12 (13.0%; 95% confidence interval, 6.1%–19.9%) received a primary ICD. Compared with recipients, primary ICD nonrecipients were older (age at ejection fraction assessment, 67.1±13.6 versus 58.5±14.8 years, P=0.05), with 20% aged ≥80 years (versus 0% among recipients, P=0.11). Additionally, a subgroup (26%) had either a clinical history of dementia or were undergoing chronic dialysis. Conclusions— Only one fifth of the sudden cardiac arrest cases in the community were eligible for a primary prevention ICD before the event, but among these, a small proportion (13%) were actually implanted. Although older age and comorbidity may explain nondeployment in a subgroup of these cases, other determinants such as socioeconomic factors, health insurance, patient preference, and clinical practice patterns warrant further detailed investigation.