Karl G. Hill

Predictors of Early High School Dropout: A Test of Five Theories.

This study compared the adequacy of 5 theories to predict dropping out of high school before the 10th grade. These theories include full mediation by academic achievement and direct effects related to general deviance, deviant affiliation, family socialization, and structural strains. Nested latent variable models were used to test these theories on prospective data from an ethnically diverse urban sample. Poor academic achievement mediated the effect of all independent factors on school dropout, although general deviance, bonding to antisocial peers, and socioeconomic status also retained direct effects on dropping out. Therefore, none of the theories tested was fully adequate to explain the data, although partial support was obtained for each theory. Implications for prevention of early high school dropout are discussed.

Developmental risk factors for youth violence.

PURPOSE To replicate earlier research findings on risk factors for youth violence and to explore the effects on violent behavior of constructs shown to increase risk for other problem behaviors, within a developmental frame. METHODS Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP), a prospective study involving a panel of youths followed since 1985. Potential risk factors for violence at age 18 years were measured at ages 10, 14, and 16 years. Bivariate relationships involving risk factor constructs in the individual, family, school, peer and community domains and violence were examined at each age to assess changes in their strength of prediction over time. Attention was also given to the additive strength of increasing numbers of risk factors in the prediction of violence at age 18 years. A final set of analyses explored the extent to which youths were correctly classified as having committed a violent act (or not) at age 18 years on the basis of their overall level of risk at ages 10, 14, and 16 years. RESULTS At each age, risk factors strongly related to later violence were distributed among the five domains. Ten of 15 risk factors constructs measured at age 10 years were significantly predictive of violence at age 18 years. Twenty of 25 constructs measured at age 14 years and 19 of 21 constructs measured at age 16 years were significantly predictive of later violence. Many constructs predicted violence from more than one developmental point. Hyperactivity (parent rating), low academic performance, peer delinquency, and availability of drugs in the neighborhood predicted violence from ages 10, 14, and 16 years. Analyses of the additive effects of risk factors revealed that youths exposed to multiple risks were notably more likely than others to engage in later violence. The odds for violence of youths exposed to more than five risk factors compared to the odds for violence of youths exposed to fewer than two risk factors at each age were seven times greater at age 10 years, 10 times greater at age 14 years, and nearly 11 times greater at age 16 years. However, despite information gained from all significant risk factors, the overall accuracy in predicting youths who would go on to commit violent acts was limited. CONCLUSIONS Findings from the study have important implications for preventive intervention programs. Prevention efforts must be comprehensive and developmentally sensitive, responding to large groups or populations exposed to multiple risks.

Childhood Risk Factors for Adolescent Gang Membership: Results from the Seattle Social Development Project

Adolescents who join gangs are more frequently involved in serious delinquency compared with those who do not, yet few studies have conducted a prospective examination of risk factors for gang membership. The present study uses longitudinal data to predict gang membership in adolescence from factors measured in childhood. Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, an ethnically diverse, gender-balanced sample (n = 808) followed prospectively from age 10 to 18. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors at ages 10 through 12 predictive of joining a gang between the ages of 13 and 18. Neighborhood, family, school, peer, and individual factors significantly predicted joining a gang in adolescence. Youth exposed to multiple factors were much more likely to join a gang. Implications for the development of gang prevention interventions are discussed.

Long-Term Effects of the Seattle Social Development Intervention on School Bonding Trajectories

Bonding to school has been shown to be a protective factor against many problem behaviors. This study examines the effects of intervention during the elementary grades on changes in school bonding from middle school through high school, using hierarchical linear modeling. A full intervention group (Grades 1-6), a late intervention group (interventions in Grades 5 and 6 only), and a control group offered no special intervention were compared. The full intervention group was significantly more bonded to school than the control group at ages 13 and 18. Moreover, the full intervention group showed a curvilinear change in school bonding over time, decreasing to age 16 and then increasing to age 18, whereas bonding to school in both the control and late intervention groups continued to decline from age 13 to age 18. These findings suggest that social development interventions through elementary school can have positive long-term effects on school bonding and demonstrate the importance of long-term follow-up studies of preventive interventions.

Developmental relationships between adolescent substance use and risky sexual behavior in young adulthood

PURPOSE To examine the developmental relationship between adolescent substance use and risky sexual behavior in young adulthood. A gender-balanced, ethnically diverse urban sample of 808 children in Seattle was surveyed at age 10 years in 1985 and followed prospectively to age 21 years in 1996. Semiparametric group-based modeling was used to determine trajectory groups of binge-drinking, cigarette smoking, marijuana use, and the use of other illicit drugs. Negative binomial regressions and logistic regressions were used to examine whether these trajectory groups predicted the number of sex partners and condom use at age 21 years. Specific forms of adolescent substance use significantly predicted risky sexual behavior at age 21 years, after other substance use and early measures of sexual behavior were controlled. Early binge-drinkers had significantly more sex partners than nonbinge-drinkers. Late onset binge-drinkers and marijuana users had significantly more sex partners and were less likely to use condoms consistently than those who did not binge drink or use marijuana. Experimenters in cigarette smoking, who did not escalate smoking, were more likely to use condoms consistently than nonsmokers. In contrast, the use of other illicit drugs in adolescence did not predict risky sexual behavior at age 21 years. The effects of adolescent substance use on risky sexual behavior at age 21 years differed for youths with developmentally different substance use trajectories in this urban sample disproportionately drawn from high crime neighborhoods. To prevent risky sexual behavior among young adults, attention should be paid to binge-drinking and marijuana use during adolescence.

Childhood Predictors of Offense Trajectories

Previous research has shown heterogeneity in offense trajectories. Using data from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study of 808 youths followed since 1985, this study seeks to identify childhood predictors of different offense trajectories. Five offense trajectories were identified using semiparametric, group-based modeling: nonoffenders, late onsetters, desisters, escalators, and chronic offenders. Multinomial logistic regressions were then employed to examine childhood predictors measured at ages 10 to 12 that distinguish these five groups. Results indicated that among initial nonoffenders at age 13, late onsetters were distinguished from nonoffenders by individual factors. Among youth already delinquent at age 13, escalators were distinguished from desisters by peer, school, and neighborhood factors.

Parenting practices and problem behavior across three generations: Monitoring, harsh discipline, and drug use in the intergenerational transmission of externalizing behavior

Using data from grandparents (G1), parents (G2), and children (G3), this study examined continuity in parental monitoring, harsh discipline, and child externalizing behavior across generations, and the contribution of parenting practices and parental drug use to intergenerational continuity in child externalizing behavior. Structural equation and path modeling of prospective, longitudinal data from 808 G2 participants, their G1 parents, and their school-age G3 children (n = 136) showed that parental monitoring and harsh discipline demonstrated continuity from G1 to G2. Externalizing behavior demonstrated continuity from G2 to G3. Continuity in parenting practices did not explain the intergenerational continuity in externalizing behavior. Rather, G2 adolescent externalizing behavior predicted their adult substance use, which was associated with G3 externalizing behavior. A small indirect effect of G1 harsh parenting on G3 was observed. Interparental abuse and socidemographic risk were included as controls but did not explain the intergenerational transmission of externalizing behavior. Results highlight the need for preventive interventions aimed at breaking intergenerational cycles in poor parenting practices. More research is required to identify parental mechanisms influencing the continuity of externalizing behavior across generations.

Effects of Social Development Intervention in Childhood 15 Years Later

OBJECTIVE To examine the long-term effects of a universal intervention in elementary schools in promoting positive functioning in school, work, and community, and preventing mental health problems, risky sexual behavior, substance misuse, and crime at ages 24 and 27 years. DESIGN Nonrandomized controlled trial. SETTING Fifteen public elementary schools serving diverse neighborhoods including high-crime neighborhoods in Seattle, Washington. PARTICIPANTS Sex-balanced and multiracial/multiethnic sample of 598 participants at ages 24 and 27 years (93% of the original sample in these conditions). INTERVENTIONS Teacher training in classroom instruction and management, child social and emotional skill development, and parent workshops. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Self-reports of functioning in school, work, and community and of mental health, sexual behavior, substance use, and crime, and court records. RESULTS A significant multivariate intervention effect across all 16 primary outcome indices was found. Specific effects included significantly better educational and economic attainment, mental health, and sexual health by age 27 years (all P < .05). Hypothesized effects on substance use and crime were not found at ages 24 or 27 years. CONCLUSIONS A universal intervention for urban elementary schoolchildren, which focused on classroom management and instruction, childrens social competence, and parenting practices, positively affected mental health, sexual health, and educational and economic achievement 15 years after the intervention ended.

Childhood bullying involvement and exposure to intimate partner violence

OBJECTIVE. Our objectives with this study were to describe the prevalence of bullying involvement (ie, bullying and victimization) among children from a multigenerational study and to examine the relationship of these childhood behaviors and exposure to intimate partner violence. METHODS. A community-based cohort of 112 children (aged 6 to 13 years) was asked to self-report on physical, verbal, and relational types of bullying and victimization experienced in the past year. Parents reported on their childs externalizing and internalizing behaviors during the previous 6 months using items from Achenbachs Child Behavior Checklist. The frequency of parental experiences of intimate partner violence perpetration and victimization at 2 time points during the preceding 5 years was measured using Conflict Tactics Scale items. The association of intimate partner violence and parent-reported child behavioral problems was examined, followed by exposure to intimate partner violence and child-reported bullying or victimization. Parental risk factors (eg, race/ethnicity, education, problem drinking) that predispose to intimate partner violence were controlled for using propensity score statistical modeling. RESULTS. Eighty-two (73.2%) children reported being victimized by peers, and 38 (33.9%) children reported bullying behaviors in the past year. More reports came from girls than from boys (55% for victimization and 61% for bullying). Almost all (97%) child bullies were also victims themselves. Intimate partner violence was reported by parent respondents in 53 (50.5%) households at any or both of the 2 time points. Exposure to intimate partner violence was not associated with child-reported relational bullying behaviors or victimization by peers, However, intimate partner violence–exposed children were at increased risk for problematic levels of externalizing behavior/physical aggression and internalizing behaviors. CONCLUSIONS. In our sample, children who were 6 to 13 years of age reported a substantial amount of bullying and victimization; a large majority were bully-victims and female. Regression analyses did not show that children who were exposed to intimate partner violence were more likely to engage in relational bullying. However, children who are exposed to intimate partner violence have a higher likelihood of internalizing behaviors and physical aggression.

Identifying and Predicting Offending Trajectories among Poor Children

Using data from the Seattle Social Development Project, we identify childhood predictors of offending trajectories among poor children. Five trajectories are identified: nonoffenders, late onsetters, desisters, escalators, and chronic offenders. Among initial nonoffenders, late onsetters are distinguished from nonoffenders by early alcohol drinking. Among youths already delinquent at age 13, escalators are distinguished from desisters by poor family management, family conflict, association with antisocial peers, the presence of troubled children in their neighborhoods, and drug availability. In contrast to prior findings for a general urban sample, family factors significantly predict desistance from offending by age 18 in children from low‐income families.