Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola

Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland, Sweden and Norway

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.

Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations

Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled “Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate” [1].

Analysis of the meteorological capacity for early warnings in Malawi and Zambia

Developing countries are highly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events. This vulnerability is perpetuated and compounded by the lack of efficient early warning services, a consequence of gaps in the meteorological infrastructure and the chronic shortage of trained experts. Climate change is foreseen to increase these challenges as many extreme weather and climate events are predicted to become more frequent and intense during the next decades. This paper analyses the constraints and gaps that the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) are facing in the two Southern African countries of Malawi and Zambia. Funding needed to upgrade the meteorological observing station networks, forecast production systems and human resource capacities to a level where these NMSs would be able to provide basic services is estimated to be less than US

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

10 million per country. These investments have the potential to bring large benefits to whole society.

Climate change and electricity consumption - witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?

Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts, but explore a range of possible futures. Socio-economic scenarios enable the consideration of different uncertainties related to the future and may improve decision-making by enabling the development and analysis of robust decisions. The development of socio-economic scenarios in the Arctic has been a fairly popular topic for scenario analyses. This study reviews ten selected socio-economic scenarios developed for the Arctic region that differ in structure and geographic focus. The analysis shows that the key uncertainties are fairly similar across the different scenarios. The key uncertainties are mainly related to governance or management and natural resources, but recently the uncertainty and importance of political factors have risen. Climate change is included in all scenarios, but its contribution to the future development of the region and its perceived uncertainty varies depending on the scenario.