Karsten Rinke

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Lake Ecosystem Modelling Approaches

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘reinventing the wheel’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘having tunnel vision’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv) increase the transparency of model structure, assumptions and techniques, (v) achieve a greater understanding of aquatic ecosystem functioning, (vi) increase the reliability of predictions by aquatic ecosystem models, (vii) stimulate model inter-comparisons including differing model approaches, and (viii) avoid ‘re-inventing the wheel’, thus accelerating improvements to aquatic ecosystem models. We intend to achieve this as a community that fosters interactions amongst ecologists and model developers. Further, we outline scientific topics recently articulated by the scientific community, which lend themselves well to being addressed by integrative modelling approaches and serve to motivate the progress and implementation of an open source model framework.

Reservoirs as sentinels of catchments: the Rappbode Reservoir Observatory (Harz Mountains, Germany)

Reservoirs can be viewed as sentinels of their catchments and a detailed monitoring of reservoir systems informs about biogeochemical and hydrological processes at the catchment scale. We developed a comprehensive online monitoring system at Rappbode reservoir, the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany, and its inflows. The Rappbode Reservoir Observatory comprises of a set of online-sensors for the measurement of physical, chemical, and biological variables and is complemented by a biweekly limnological sampling schedule. Measurement stations are deployed at the four major inflows into the system, at the outlets of all pre-reservoirs, as well as in the main reservoir. The newly installed monitoring system serves both scientific monitoring and process studies, as well as reservoir management. Particular emphasis is paid to the monitoring of short-term dynamics and many variables are measured at high temporal resolution. As an example, we quantitatively documented a flood event which mobilised high loads of dissolved organic carbon and changed the characteristics of the receiving reservoir from eutrophic to dystrophic within a few days. This event could have been completely missed by conventional biweekly sampling programs, but is relevant for biogeochemical fluxes at the catchment scale. We also show that the high frequency data provide a deeper insight into ecosystem dynamics and lake metabolism. The Rappbode Reservoir Observatory; moreover, offers a unique study site to apply, validate, and develop state of the art lake models to improve their predictive capabilities.

Modelling the effects of temperature and food on individual growth and reproduction of Daphnia and their consequences on the population level

Abstract Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r 2 = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r 2 = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl −1 Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth. Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl −1 ) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions.

The Bode hydrological observatory: a platform for integrated, interdisciplinary hydro-ecological research within the TERENO Harz/Central German Lowland Observatory

This article provides an overview about the Bode River catchment that was selected as the hydrological observatory and main region for hydro-ecological research within the TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories Harz/Central German Lowland Observatory. It first provides information about the general characteristics of the catchment including climate, geology, soils, land use, water quality and aquatic ecology, followed by the description of the interdisciplinary research framework and the monitoring concept with the main components of the multi-scale and multi-temporal monitoring infrastructure. It also shows examples of interdisciplinary research projects aiming to advance the understanding of complex hydrological processes under natural and anthropogenic forcings and their interactions in a catchment context. The overview is complemented with research work conducted at a number of intensive research sites, each focusing on a particular functional zone or specific components and processes of the hydro-ecological system.

Impacts of salinity and fish-exuded kairomone on the survival and macromolecular profile of Daphnia pulex

Global warming is already causing salinization of freshwater ecosystems located in semi-arid regions, including Turkey. Daphnids, which are important grazers on phytoplankton and a major food source for fish and invertebrates, are sensitive to not only changes in salinity levels, but also presence of predators. In this study, the interactive effect of salinity toxicity (abiotic factor) with predation pressure mimicked by the fish-exuded kairomone (biotic factor) and the effect of salt acclimation on daphnids were investigated. Impacts of these stressors on daphnid survival, life history and molecular profile were observed. The presence of the kairomone antagonistically alters the effect of salinity, as observed from the 24- and 48-h LC50 values and survival results. Molecular findings provided solid evidence to this antagonism at even lower salt concentrations, for which antagonism was not evident with organismal data. Fish predation counterbalances the negative effect of salinity in terms of reserve energy density. Therefore, it is important to investigate multiple stressor effects in ecotoxicological bioassays complemented with molecular techniques. The single effect of increasing salinity resulted in increased mortality, decreased fecundity, and slower somatic growth in Daphnia, despite their acclimation to salinity. This insignificance of acclimation indicates that Daphnia do not have any physiological mechanisms to buffer the adverse effects of salinity, making it a very crucial factor. Salinity-induced reduction in population growth rate of freshwater keystone species Daphnia—despite acclimation—indicates that global warming-induced salinity may cascade through the food web and lead to dramatic environmental consequences in the structure of lake ecosystems.

Use of a weather generator for simulating climate change effects on ecosystems

We present a new vector-autoregressive weather generator developed to generate meteorological time series for climate impact studies on ecosystems.As an example, the weather generator was applied in combination with a hydrodynamic-ecological lake model (DYRESM-CAEDYM). The effects of a warmer and more variable climate on hydrodynamics and phytoplankton in large monomictic lakes were analysed.The weather generator reproduced dependency structures of measured meteorological data. Variability was altered at a time scale similar to lengths of synoptic disturbances, resulting in longer than day-to-day fluctuation changes.Sensitivity of spring bloom development towards a warmer climate, increased climate variability and a combination of both was addressed. For this purpose, 500 meteorological time series per scenario were generated as input for the lake model. We found that onset and maximum of phytoplankton spring bloom are sensitive towards spring weather conditions and that an increase in variability favours early as well as late blooms. Display Omitted We developed a weather generator for scenarios with changed mean and/or variability.The scenarios were used as input for a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological lake model.The effect on stratification and plankton phenology was examined.Increase in mean temperature shifts distribution of blooming dates.Increase in variability favours earlier as well as later blooms.

Novel approaches to address challenges in modelling aquatic ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems are under increasing stress due to direct and indirect human activities. In response to this increased stress, aquatic ecosystems models are increasingly used to simulate water quality responses to changes. The increasing use of these models has not come without challenges. This thematic issue brings together examples of the latest thinking and novel approaches addressing key areas across a range of aquatic ecosystems, from lakes to rivers to marine waters. Topics include approaches applied to cover the full range of activities from methodological and technical developments of model-driven research of aquatic ecosystem functioning to model applications in lake management and decision-making. This thematic issue will provide additional momentum towards the ongoing development and improvement of aquatic models and their application. Topics include methodological and technical developments and model applications in lake management and decision-making.The issue combines novel approaches addressing key areas across aquatic ecosystems from lakes to rivers to marine waters.

A Note on Abiotic Factors that Constrain Periphyton Growth in Alpine Glacier Streams

Periphyton growth limitation experiments were conducted in five glacier streams during the main ice melt period in late summer using nutrient diffusing substrata (NDS) that contained nitrate and/or phosphate. Periphyton net growth was determined as chlorophyll a accrual after an exposure time of 4 weeks. In addition, primary water chemistry and physical parameters of the study streams were measured. These chemical and physical parameters characterised the sites as kryal (glacial) systems. Neither nutrient limitation nor a significant correlation between water chemistry and physical data and chlorophyll a values were apparent. A comparison between current velocity and ln-transformed chlorophyll a values revealed a typical optimum curve with highest periphyton accrual at 0.5 m s–1 on NDS. During the summer ablation period, the net growth of periphyton in these glacial streams appeared to be controlled primarily by current velocity.

Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts.