Karsten Staehr

Reforms and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: Complementarity, Sequencing and Speed

Growth regressions have provided important insights into the impact of economic reforms on growth in transition economies. Using principal components to decompose reform variables and construct reform clusters, we address unsettled issues such as the importance of sequencing and reform speed. The results indicate a broad-based reform policy is good for growth, but so is a policy of liberalisation and small-scale privatisation without structural reforms. Conversely, large-scale privatisation without adjoining reforms, market opening without supporting reforms and bank liberalisation without enterprise restructuring affect growth negatively. Swift reform policies allow transition countries to benefit from higher growth for a longer period of time. The speed of reforms otherwise appears to have only limited effects on short-term and medium-term growth.

Income underreporting by households with business income: evidence from Estonia

This article estimates the extent of income underreporting by households with business income relative to households of wage earners in Estonia. It uses a modified version of the methodology pioneered by Pissarides and Weber. The extent of income underreporting is estimated by comparing food Engel curves for households with and without reported business income. The baseline result is that the reported total income of households with business income above 20% of total income must be multiplied by 2.6 in order to attain the same propensity to food consumption as households of wage earners. In this sense, households with business income underreport 62% of their ‘true’ total income. Households with reported business income above 0 but below 20% also underreport income but to a lesser extent. The estimates are higher than those found for developed countries but consistent with other studies of unreported activities in transition countries.

The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries

The Euro Plus Pact was approved by 23 EU countries in March 2011. The Pact stipulates a range of quantitative targets meant to strengthen competitiveness and convergence with the ultimate aim of preventing unsustainable financial imbalances from accumulating. This paper uses Granger causality tests and VAR models to assess the direction of causality between changes in the relative unit labour cost and the current account balance. The sample consists of the 27 EU countries for the period 1995–2011. The main finding is that changes in the current account balance affects changes in relative unit labour costs, while there is no discernable effect in the opposite direction. This suggests that the divergence in the unit labour cost between the core countries in Northern Europe and the countries in Southern and Central and Eastern Europe prior to the global financial crisis was partly the result of capital flows from the European core to the periphery. The results call into question the ability of the Euro Plus Pact to avert financial imbalances related to increasing current account deficits in future.

WHY DO INDIVIDUALS EVADE PAYROLL AND INCOME TAXATION IN ESTONIA

This paper employs micro-level data to determine the factors characterizing individuals who evade payroll and income taxation in Estonia. Using logit estimation on three different cross-sectional datasets, we estimate the marginal effects of different individual characteristics on tax evasion. The three datasets give broadly analogous results. Payroll and income tax evasion is most prevalent in small firms and in the construction and agricultural sectors. Evasion is more common among individuals who work part-time, are of non-Estonian ethnicity, have relatively short education, earn a low income and are men. Tax evasion is more frequent among the young and the elderly than among the middle-aged. There are clear regional differences. The overall picture is that the relatively disenfranchised are most likely to evade payroll and income taxation in Estonia.

Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe

This article analyses the time series properties of the fiscal balance in the 10 EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The persistence of the fiscal balance is analysed by means of unit root tests that account for possible nonlinearities and structural changes. The linear and nonlinear unit root tests find only mild evidence in favour of the stationarity hypothesis, with asymmetric effects present in a few cases. After controlling for structural changes in the Data Generation Processes (DGPs), the results point to stationarity of the series. Thus, in spite of relatively steady headline figures, the budget balance processes in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe exhibit substantial instability.

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?

According to the Maastricht Treaty, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have an inflation rate in excess of 1.5 per cent plus the average inflation rates in the three ‘best performing’ EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non-increasing function of the number of EU members. A counterfactual analysis of historical data shows that the effect of enlarging the EU from 15 to 27 countries was sizeable in 2002–04 and again from 2007. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the inflation reference value by 0.15–0.2 percentage points on average, but there is a considerable probability of a larger reduction at any given moment of time. The treatment of countries with negative inflation rates in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results.

Income Convergence and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe

This study investigates the process of price convergence in the ten new EU countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The analyses are based on panel data from 1995 to 2008 of the common currency price relative to the EU15 average. The lagged income level exhibits little explanatory power toward relative inflation, but the lagged price level has some explanatory power. In the long term, the relative income and price levels are closely correlated, implying concurrent real and nominal convergence. Deviations from the long-term relation between income and price levels are gradually decreased by changes in relative inflation and gross domestic product growth, but the process of convergence appears to be rather slow. In the short term, the capital inflows associated with current account deficits put substantial upward pressure on relative price inflation, but the Balassa-Samuelson effect appears to be subdued.

Enhanced Fiscal Governance in the European Union: The Fiscal Compact

Abstract Several reforms aiming to strengthen budgetary discipline in the European Union have been implemented since the outbreak of the European debt crisis. Arguably the most important one is the Fiscal Compact, which stipulates that each signatory country must enshrine in domestic legislation an upper limit on the structural budget deficit, that is, the deficit after cyclical and other temporary factors have been excluded. This paper analyses the contents of the Fiscal Compact and discusses challenges for its implementation and efficacy. The conclusion is that the Fiscal Compact may be challenging to implement and enforce because the rules are very complex and require complicated calculations that are subject to very large forecasting uncertainty. The Fiscal Compact could, however, lead to a stronger national commitment to fiscal prudence.

The European debt crisis and fiscal reaction functions in Europe 2000–2012

After the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious debt financing problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance by assessing the fiscal conduct in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001-2008 and for the post-crisis period 2009-2012. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but generally little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The post-crisis estimations show less counter-cyclicality and much more feedback from the debt stock, and these reactions are particularly pronounced for the countries with severe fiscal problems.

Covered Interest Parity and the Global Financial Crisis in Four Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper examines the empirical validity of the covered interest parity (CIP) hypothesis in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Before the global financial crisis, CIP was mostly satisfied for the first three countries but not for Romania. During and after the crisis, deviations from CIP have been substantial in all cases but with large differences across the countries. Estimations tie the observed pattern to developments in both global and country-specific risks. In the case of the Czech Republic, increased global risks led to a lower risk premium, indicating that Czech assets functioned as a safe haven. In Hungary and Poland, increased global risks led to higher risk premiums, suggesting a flight to quality out of Hungarian and Polish assets. Finally, for Romania the deviations from CIP were unrelated to developments in global or local financial risks, reflecting a repressed financial system.