Karyn Tabor

Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change.

Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 degrees x 2 degrees or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programmes (WCRPs) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.

Forest and Woodland Cover and Change in Coastal Tanzania and Kenya, 1990 to 2000

ABSTRACT Forest and woodland cover and change were calculated for the Zanzibar-Inhambane biogeographical region of Tanzania and Kenya from ∼1990 to ∼2000. A cover and change map was derived from high-resolution satellite imagery from Landsat and supplemental data from aerial overflights, field surveys, and local knowledge. Analyses showed that around 6820 km2 of coastal forest habitat remained in ∼2000 (2260 km2 in Kenya and 4560 km2 in Tanzania). In terms of change, a total of 424 km2 (6%) of forest was cleared between ∼1990 and ∼2000; 53 km2 in Kenya and 371 km2 in Tanzania. Rates of forest loss were 8 times higher in unprotected areas than in protected sites such as Forest Reserves and National Parks. Key Biodiversity Areas had forest loss rates 2.5 times faster than protected areas while Alliance for Zero Extinction sites had the slowest rates of forest loss for the region. These baseline forest cover and change estimates along with future updates can contribute to national and sub-national carbon emission baselines and assessments of species threat within the global Red List.

Deforestation and CO2 emissions in coastal Tanzania from 1990 to 2007

SUMMARY Conversion of forest to other land uses is a major contributor to climate change. The coastal forests of Tanzania have increasingly been recognized as being of global biodiversity importance, due to high rates of species endemism. Rates of forest loss are similar to those of other tropical regions, resulting in increasing levels of threat for the biological values within the remaining forest and potentially significant source of CO2 emissions. This study estimated the remaining cover and carbon stock of Tanzania’s coastal forests and the CO2 emissions due to forest loss between c. 1990 and c. 2007. Coastal Tanzania contained over 273 700 ha of forest in 2007. Deforestation rates in the area have slowed from 1.0 % yr −1 ,o r> 3735 ha yr −1 during the 1990s, to 0.4 % yr −1 ,o r> 1233 ha yr −1 during 2000‐2007. Despite lower deforestation rates in 2000‐2007, the percentage forest lost from within reserved areas has remained steady at 0.2 % yr −1 for both time periods. CO2 emissions from deforestation slowed from at least 0.63 Mt CO2 yr −1 in 1990‐2000 to at least 0.20 Mt CO2 yr −1 in 2000‐2007. Regional forest clearance in Tanzania is highly dynamic; while rates have slowed since 2000, forest habitat conversion has continued and there is no guarantee that future rates will remain low. A rigorous policy on reducing emissionsfromdeforestationanddegradation(REDD) should be implemented to avoid future increases in deforestation rates.

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation and development investments in reducing deforestation and fires in Ankeniheny-Zahemena Corridor, Madagascar

Forest conservation and REDD+ projects invest millions of dollars each year to reduce local communities’ dependence on forests and prevent forest loss and degradation. However, to date, there is limited evidence on whether these investments are effective at delivering conservation outcomes. We explored the relationships between 600+ small-scale conservation and development investments that occurred from 2007 to 2014 and conservation outcomes (deforestation rates and fire detections) within Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor in Madagascar using linear fixed effects panel regressions. We derived annual changes in forest cover and fires from satellite remote sensing. We found a statistically significant correlation between presence of any investment and reduced deforestation rates in 2010 and 2011 –years with accelerated deforestation elsewhere in the study area. This result indicated investments abated deforestation rates during times of political instability and lack of governance following a 2009 coup in Madagascar. We also found a statistically significant relationship between presence of any investment and reduced fire detections in the study area, suggesting investments had an impact on reducing burning of forest for agriculture. For both outcomes (i.e., deforestation rates and fire detections), we found that more dollars invested led to greater conservation outcomes (i.e. fewer fires or less deforestation), particularly when funding was sustained for one to two years. Our findings suggest that conservation and development investments can reduce deforestation and fire incidence, but also highlight the many challenges and complexities in assessing relationships between investments and conservation outcomes in a dynamic landscape and a volatile political context.

A Satellite Model of Forest Flammability

We describe a model of forest flammability, based on daily satellite observations, for national to regional applications. The model defines forest flammability as the percent moisture content of fuel, in the form of litter of varying sizes on the forest floor. The model uses formulas from the US Forest Service that describe moisture exchange between fuel and the surrounding air and precipitation. The model is driven by estimates of temperature, humidity, and precipitation from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and tropical rainfall measuring mission multi-satellite precipitation analysis. We provide model results for the southern Amazon and northern Chaco regions. We evaluate the model in a tropical forest-to-woodland gradient in lowland Bolivia. Results from the model are significantly correlated with those from the same model driven by field climate measurements. This model can be run in a near real-time mode, can be applied to other regions, and can be a cost-effective input to national fire management programs.

Two decades of change in state, pressure and conservation responses in the coastal forest biodiversity hotspot of Tanzania

We present an analysis of changes of state, pressures and conservation responses over 20 years in the Tanzanian portion of the Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa biodiversity hotspot. Baseline data collected during 1989–1995 are compared with data from a synthesis of recently published papers and reports and new field work carried out across the region during 2010–2014. We show that biodiversity endemism values are largely unchanged, although two new species (amphibian and mammal) have been named and two extremely rare tree species have been relocated. However, forest habitat continues to be lost and degraded, largely as a result of agricultural expansion, charcoal production to supply cities with cooking fuel, logging for timber and cutting of wood for firewood and building poles. Habitat loss is linked to an increase in the number of species threatened over time. The government-managed forest reserve network has expanded slightly but has low effectiveness. Three forest reserves have been upgraded to National Parks and Nature Reserves, which have stricter protection and more effective enforcement. There has also been rapid development of village-owned forest reserves, with more than 140 now existing; although usually small, they are an important addition to the areas being managed for sustainable resource use, and also provide tangible benefits to local people. Human-use pressures remain intense in many areas, and combined with emerging pressures from mining, gas and oil exploration, many endemic species remain threatened with extinction.

Research Spotlight: Designing nature-based mitigation to promote multiple benefits

By promoting the conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems, policymakers have a unique opportunity to mitigate climate change while providing social and environmental benefits. Here we highlight how nature-based mitigation strategies for multiple benefits can be supported by three key areas of scientific research, drawing upon examples of research by Conservation International and its partners. First, monitoring of ecosystems can quantify the magnitude of emissions released from conversion and degradation, and can inform prioritization and planning efforts. Second, understanding the synergies and tradeoffs between climate change mitigation and other ecosystem benefits can aid in designing policy instruments, selecting management techniques and geographically targeting actions. And third, research on the design of policies, incentives and practices can enhance mitigation initiatives’ provision of both climate and noncarbon benefits. Achieving multiple benefits can in turn increase the sustainability of and investment in nature-based mitigation.

Free satellite data key to conservation

Biodiversity is in crisis, with extinction rates orders of magnitude higher than background levels ([ 1 ][1]). Underfunded conservationists need to target their limited resources effectively. Over the past decade, satellite remote sensing has revolutionized our ability to monitor biodiversity