Kasaundra M. Tomlin

Size and Growth of Japanese Plants in the United States

Using a unique database on all Japanese manufacturing plants in the United States, we examine the relationship between plant size and growth for these foreign-owned plants. These plants average sizes are three times larger than comparable U.S. plants and experienced 30 percent growth from 1987 through 1990, while U.S. average plant sizes declined over the same period. Our estimates strongly reject Gibrats Law for these plants, and suggest that smaller plants grow faster. We also find learning affects plant-level growth. Newer plants grow quicker and previous investments by the parent firm mean slower growth, particularly for automobile-related plants. Both are consistent with inexperienced firms growing faster as they learn.

Safeguards and Retaliatory Threats

This is the first empirical article to analyze the response of shareholders to the threat of retaliatory tariffs authorized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). We use event study methodology to gauge the impact of European Union (EU) retaliatory threats stemming from the 2002 imposition of U.S. steel safeguards. Results indicate that the U.S. stock returns of firms slated for WTO‐authorized tariffs reacted negatively to the announcements, signaling an increased likelihood of retaliation. Shareholders also generally responded positively to the early cancellation of the safeguards, which removed the risk of retaliation. Industry‐level analysis indicates that producers of apparel, tobacco, and transportation equipment were particularly affected by the threat of retaliatory tariffs. Second‐stage estimates suggest that retaliatory threats have a more negative impact on firms with a higher export share to the EU, greater profit growth, and low research‐and‐development intensity.