Kashif Saleem

Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Currency Markets: Evidence from Emerging Eastern Europe

The purpose of this study is threefold. First, we look at the linkages between Eastern European emerging equity markets and Russia. Second, we investigate the relationships between the currency markets of Poland, Hungary, Russia, and the Czech Republic. Finally, we examine the interdependence between Emerging Eastern European and Russian equity and currency markets. We estimate a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner (1995) using weekly returns. We find evidence of direct linkages between the equity markets in terms of both returns and volatility, as well as in the currency markets. When analyzing the relationships between currency and stock markets we find unidirectional volatility spillovers from currency to stock markets. The results show clear evidence of integration of Eastern European markets within the region and with Russia as well.

Oil Risk and Asset Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets in the Middle East

In this paper, we investigate whether oil risk is priced in selected emerging markets of the Middle East region—in particular, oil-producing countries. Given that these countries have maintained fixed exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, we are able to modify the multivariate GARCH framework to include the oil-risk component. The results show that within the framework we adopt, the world market risk and oil risk are priced on all markets under investigation. The oil risk is highly significant in all markets, indicating that oil-risk exposure, to some extent, is nondiversifiable.

Intra-market Linkages Among Civets Stock Markets: A New Frontier for Investments

This paper utilizes the multivariate GARCH framework of Engle and Kroner (1995) to examine the return and volatility spillovers among a new group of six frontier markets called ‘CIVETS’. These markets are considered to be the future hosts of investments due to their huge potential and abundance of resources. The analysis of weekly stock market return series revealed that these markets have significant return and volatility spillovers among each other. These findings suggest that the portfolio investors who invest in emerging and frontier markets for better returns should take into account the correlation of risk and returns among CIVETS stock markets. The diversification benefits should be assessed keeping in view the extent of inter-market linkages of Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa.

Long Memory Volatility Persistence in High Frequency Precious Metals Returns

Using high frequency data, this paper examines the long memory property in the conditional volatility of the precious metals return series at different time frequencies using FIGARCH models. Very significant long memory characteristics have been detected in absolute returns by using Semiparametric local Whittle estimation of the long memory parameter. Estimation of the long memory parameter across many different data sampling frequencies gives consistent estimates of the long memory parameter, indicating that the series are exactly to show some degree of self-similarity. Results indicate that the long memory property remains quite consistent across different time frequencies for both unconditional and conditional volatility measures. This study is useful for investors and traders (with different trading horizons) and it can be used in predicting expected future volatility and in designing and implementing trading strategies at different time frequencies.

What Types of Macroeconomic Announcements Affect Stock Markets in Emerging Eastern Europe

This study considers the impact of foreign and local macroeconomic announcements on emerging Eastern European stock markets. Stock market and macroeconomic news from 2006-2010 for Russia, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are analyzed for differences across countries and to determine whether foreign macroeconomic announcements have a greater impact on stock performance than local macroeconomic news. The direct linkage between stock markets and macroeconomic announcements is found, as well as evidence of integration among the stock markets in emerging Eastern Europe. Macroeconomic news appears to affect local market volatility and, in rare instances, stock returns themselves. Negative news has a leverage effect for emerging Eastern European stock markets, as greater volatility in the stock market is generated by negative news than by positive news. The results of this study have implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection for international financial institutions and for portfolio managers who are assessing their investment decisions with respect to macroeconomic news releases.

Impact of Overinvestment & Underinvestment on Corporate Performance: Evidence from Singapore Stock Market

This paper aims to study the extent of overinvestment, underinvestment problem and measure its impact on corporate performance. Our sample consists of 7 years data (2005 to 2011) of 360 non-financial companies listed in the Singapore Stock Market. After panel data models appropriation tests (LM test, Hausman test, No Fixed effect test) we employed fixed effect regression methodology in our analysis. Our results show that 52% firms in our sample are engaged in proper investment projects, 29% firms are overinvesting, while 19% firms are underinvesting. Maximum overinvestment is taking place in Basic Material sector while maximum underinvestment happening in Healthcare sector. Further tests show that both overinvestment and underinvestment shows severe negative impact on firm performance. However, proper investment has positive impact on firm performance in Singapore Stock Market. The results highlight the extent of agency problem in Singapore Stock Market. Moreover, it depicts the importance of investment activities of Singaporean companies for the international investors and portfolio managers.

Inflation Risk, Exchange Rate Risk and Asset Returns: Evidence from Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan

In this paper we investigate whether inflation and currency risks are priced in the Korean, Malaysian and Taiwan stock market using conditional international asset pricing models. We take the view of a US investor. The estimation is conducted using a modified version of the multivariate GARCH framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). We use a sample period from 1988 to 2009. The results show that the world market risk is priced on Korean, Malaysian, Taiwan and US stock markets. We find the currency and inflation risk to be also priced on Korean, Malaysian and Taiwan market.