Katell G. Hamon

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.

Bio-economic modelling for marine spatial planning application in North Sea shrimp and flatfish fisheries

Marine activities have been increasingly competing for space and reducing areas for fishing. The use of spatially explicit tools can assist the decision making process on defining the optimal location of closures for fishing due to these emerging activities.This paper presents the Spatial Integrated bio-economic Model for FISHeries (SIMFISH). In this model fishers behaviour is simulated based on optimal effort allocation. The added value of this model compared to other existing spatial management tools lies in the presence of (i) short and long term fishers behaviour (ii) spatial explicit stock and fleet dynamics and (iii) relatively low data requirements.As an illustration, SIMFISH is applied in this paper to estimate the impact of area closures in the North Sea. Overall area closures have a negative impact on the profitability of the fleets. This would be worsened with higher fuel prices and decreased stock productivity. We present a spatial explicit bio-economic model to assess impact of area closure on fisheries.The model was applied in a case study to analyse how area closures in the North Sea impact shrimp and flatfish fisheries.The possibility of fleets to go fishing in other areas play a major role in determining the impact of area closures.This fleet flexibility is majorly impacted by higher fuel prices and stock productivity.