Katey M. Walter Anthony

Effects of Changes in Arctic Lake and River Ice

Climatic changes to freshwater ice in the Arctic are projected to produce a variety of effects on hydrologic, ecological, and socio-economic systems. Key hydrologic impacts include changes to low flows, lake evaporation regimes and water levels, and river-ice break-up severity and timing. The latter are of particular concern because of their effect on river geomorphology, vegetation, sediment and nutrient fluxes, and sustainment of riparian aquatic habitats. Changes in ice phenology will affect a wide range of related biological aspects of seasonality. Some changes are likely to be gradual, but others could be more abrupt as systems cross critical ecological thresholds. Transportation and hydroelectric production are two of the socio-economic sectors most vulnerable to change in freshwater-ice regimes. Ice roads will require expensive on-land replacements while hydroelectric operations will both benefit and be challenged. The ability to undertake some traditional harvesting methods will also be affected.

Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

[1] The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.

Characterizing Post-Drainage Succession in Thermokarst Lake Basins on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska with TerraSAR-X Backscatter and Landsat-based NDVI Data

Drained thermokarst lake basins accumulate significant amounts of soil organic carbon in the form of peat, which is of interest to understanding carbon cycling and climate change feedbacks associated with thermokarst in the Arctic. Remote sensing is a tool useful for understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of drained basins. In this study, we tested the application of high-resolution X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of the German TerraSAR-X satellite from the 2009 growing season (July–September) for characterizing drained thermokarst lake basins of various age in the ice-rich permafrost region of the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To enhance interpretation of patterns identified in X-band SAR for these basins, we also analyzed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from a Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper image acquired on July 2009 and compared both X-band SAR and NDVI data with observations of basin age. We found significant logarithmic relationships between (a) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, (b) Landat-5 TM NDVI and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, and (c) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 50 to 10,000 years. NDVI was a better indicator of basin age over a period of 0–10,000 years. However, TerraSAR-X data performed much better for discriminating radiocarbon-dated basins (50–10,000 years old). No clear relationships were found for either backscatter or NDVI and basin age from 0 to 50 years. We attribute the decreasing trend of backscatter and NDVI with increasing basin age to post-drainage changes in the basin surface. Such changes include succession in vegetation, soils, hydrology, and renewed permafrost aggradation, ground ice accumulation and localized frost heave. Results of this study show the potential application of X-band SAR data in combination with NDVI data to map long-term succession dynamics of drained thermokarst lake basins.

Modeling methane emissions from arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study: Methane emissions from Arctic lakes

To date, methane emissions from lakes in the pan-arctic region are poorly quantified. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from this region to global warming, a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model was developed. The processes of methane production, oxidation, and transport were modeled within a one-dimensional sediment and water column. The sizes of 14C-enriched and 14C-depleted carbon pools were explicitly parameterized. The model was validated using observational data from five lakes located in Siberia and Alaska, representing a large variety of environmental conditions in the arctic. The model simulations agreed well with the measured water temperature and dissolved CH4 concentration (mean error less than 1°C and 0.2 μM, respectively). The modeled CH4 fluxes were consistent with observations in these lakes. We found that bubbling-rate-controlling nitrogen (N2) stripping was the most important factor in determining CH4 fraction in bubbles. Lake depth and ice cover thickness in shallow waters were also controlling factors. This study demonstrated that the thawing of Pleistocene-aged organic-rich yedoma can fuel sediment methanogenesis by supplying a large quantity of labile organic carbon. Observations and modeling results both confirmed that methane emission rate at thermokarst margins of yedoma lakes was much larger (up to 538 mg CH4 m−2 d−1) than that at nonthermokarst zones in the same lakes and a nonyedoma, nonthermokarst lake (less than 42 mg CH4 m−2 d−1). The seasonal variability of methane emissions can be explained primarily by energy input and organic carbon availability.

In Situ Measurement of Dissolved Methane and Carbon Dioxide in Freshwater Ecosystems by Off-Axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy

A novel low-cost method for the combined, real-time, and in situ determination of dissolved methane and carbon dioxide concentrations in freshwater ecosystems was designed and developed. This method is based on the continuous sampling of water from a freshwater ecosystem to a gas/liquid exchange membrane. Dissolved gas is transferred through the membrane to a continuous flow of high purity nitrogen, which is then measured by an off-axis integrated cavity output spectrometer (OA-ICOS). This method, called M-ICOS, was carefully tested in a laboratory and was subsequently applied to four lakes in Mexico and Alaska with contrasting climates, ecologies, and morphologies. The M-ICOS method allowed for the determination of dissolved methane and carbon dioxide concentrations with a frequency of 1 Hz and with a method detection limit of 2.76 × 10(-10) mol L(-1) for methane and 1.5 × 10(-7) mol L(-1) for carbon dioxide. These detection limits are below saturated concentrations with respect to the atmosphere and significantly lower than the minimum concentrations previously reported in lakes. The method is easily operable by a single person from a small boat, and the small size of the suction probe allows the determination of dissolved gases with a minimized impact on shallow freshwater ecosystems.

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter response from methane ebullition bubbles trapped by thermokarst lake ice

Thermokarst lakes, formed by permafrost thaw, are an important source of atmospheric methane (CH4), a powerful greenhouse gas. Ebullition (bubbling) is often the dominant mode of lake CH4 emission. Because extrapolating spatially limited field measurements of CH4 ebullition induces large uncertainties in regional emission estimates, there is a need for remote sensing based approaches to detect and quantify CH4 ebullition at larger spatial scales in lakes. We examined the relationship between spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pixel values of lake ice and biogeochemical field measurements of CH4 ebullition on ten lakes on the northern Seward Peninsula. Among lakes, ebullition ranged from low to high. We found that both the area of ice-bound ebullition-bubble clusters and the bubbling rates that generated the clusters were correlated with L-band single-polarized (HH) SAR (R2 = 0.70, p = 0.002, n = 10) and with the “roughness” component of a Pauli decomposition of L-band quad-polarized SAR (R2 = 0.77, p = 0.001, n = 10). No relationship was found between ERS-2 C-band single-polarized (VV) SAR and ice-trapped CH4 bubbles. Results of this study indicate that analysis of L-band SAR backscatter intensity from winter lake ice could be a valuable new tool for constraining estimates of regional ebullition in lakes.

Anaerobic oxidation of methane by aerobic methanotrophs in sub-Arctic lake sediments

Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is a biological process that plays an important role in reducing the CH4 emissions from a wide range of ecosystems. Arctic and sub-Arctic lakes are recognized as significant contributors to global methane (CH4) emission, since CH4 production is increasing as permafrost thaws and provides fuels for methanogenesis. Methanotrophy, including AOM, is critical to reducing CH4 emissions. The identity, activity, and metabolic processes of anaerobic methane oxidizers are poorly understood, yet this information is critical to understanding CH4 cycling and ultimately to predicting future CH4 emissions. This study sought to identify the microorganisms involved in AOM in sub-Arctic lake sediments using DNA- and phospholipid-fatty acid (PLFA)- based stable isotope probing. Results indicated that aerobic methanotrophs belonging to the genus Methylobacter assimilate carbon from CH4, either directly or indirectly. Other organisms that were found, in minor proportions, to assimilate CH4-derived carbon were methylotrophs and iron reducers, which might indicate the flow of CH4-derived carbon from anaerobic methanotrophs into the broader microbial community. While various other taxa have been reported in the literature to anaerobically oxidize methane in various environments (e.g. ANME-type archaea and Methylomirabilis Oxyfera), this report directly suggest that Methylobacter can perform this function, expanding our understanding of CH4 oxidation in anaerobic lake sediments.

Biogeochemistry: Nocturnal escape route for marsh gas

A field study of methane emissions from wetlands reveals that more of the gas escapes through diffusive processes than was thought, mostly at night. Because methane is a greenhouse gas, the findings have implications for global warming.

Eutrophication exacerbates the impact of climate warming on lake methane emission

Net methane (CH4) emission from lakes depends on two antagonistic processes: CH4 production (methanogenesis) and CH4 oxidation (methanotrophy). It is unclear how climate warming will affect the balance between these processes, particularly among lakes of different trophic status. Here we show that methanogenesis is more sensitive to temperature than methanotrophy, and that eutrophication magnifies this temperature sensitivity. Using laboratory incubations of water and sediment from ten tropical, temperate and subarctic lakes with contrasting trophic states, ranging from oligotrophic to hypereutrophic, we explored the temperature sensitivity of methanogenesis and methanotrophy. We found that both processes presented a higher temperature sensitivity in tropical lakes, followed by temperate, and subarctic lakes; but more importantly, we found that eutrophication triggered a higher temperature sensitivity. A model fed by our empirical data revealed that increasing lake water temperature by 2 °C leads to a net increase in CH4 emissions by 101-183% in hypereutrophic lakes and 47-56% in oligotrophic lakes. We conclude that climate warming will tilt the CH4 balance towards higher lake emission and that this impact will be exacerbated by the eutrophication of the lakes.