Katharine J. Mach

Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Abstract A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Kundzewicz, Z.W., et al., 2013. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 1–28.

Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities

This chapter assesses climate-related risks in the context of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). {Box 19.1} Such risks arise from the interaction of the evolving exposure and vulnerability of human, socioeconomic, and biological systems with changing physical characteristics of the climate system. {19.2} Alternative development paths influence risk by changing the likelihood of climatic events and trends (through their effects on greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other emissions) and by altering vulnerability and exposure. {19.2.4, Figure 19-1, Box 19-2}.

Mechanics without Muscle: Biomechanical Inspiration from the Plant World

Plant and animal biomechanists have much in common. Although their frame of reference differs, they think about the natural world in similar ways. While researchers studying animals might explore airflow around flapping wings, the actuation of muscles in arms and legs, or the material properties of spider silk, researchers studying plants might explore the flow of water around fluttering seaweeds, the grasping ability of climbing vines, or the material properties of wood. Here we summarize recent studies of plant biomechanics highlighting several current research themes in the field: expulsion of high-speed reproductive projectiles, generation of slow movements by shrinking and swelling cell walls, effects of ontogenetic shifts in mechanical properties of stems, flexible reconfiguration and material properties of seaweeds under crashing waves, and the development of botanically-inspired commercial products. Our hope is that this synopsis will resonate with both plant and animal biologists, encourage cross-pollination across disciplines, and promote fruitful interdisciplinary collaborations in the future.

Ocean acidification and its impacts: an expert survey

The oceans moderate the rate and severity of climate change by absorbing massive amounts of anthropogenic CO2 but this results in large-scale changes in seawater chemistry, which are collectively referred to as anthropogenic ocean acidification. Despite its potentially widespread consequences, the problem of ocean acidification has been largely absent from most policy discussions of CO2 emissions, both because the science is relatively new and because the research community has yet to deliver a clear message to decision makers regarding its impacts. Here we report the results of the first expert survey in the field of ocean acidification. Fifty-three experts, who had previously participated in an IPCC workshop, were asked to assess 22 declarative statements about ocean acidification and its consequences. We find a relatively strong consensus on most issues related to past, present and future chemical aspects of ocean acidification: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and anthropogenic ocean acidification that has occurred due to historical fossil fuel emissions will be felt for centuries. Experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks but levels of agreement were lower, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreement were higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation than for those about impacts on foodwebs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to socio-economic impacts, such as impacts on food security, and to more normative policy issues, were relatively low.

Death by small forces: a fracture and fatigue analysis of wave-swept macroalgae

SUMMARY Wave-swept macroalgae are subjected to large hydrodynamic forces as each wave breaks on shore, loads that are repeated thousands of times per day. Previous studies have shown that macroalgae can easily withstand isolated impositions of maximal field forces. Nonetheless, macroalgae break frequently. Here we investigate the possibility that repeated loading by sub-lethal forces can eventually cause fracture by fatigue. We determine fracture toughness, in the form of critical strain energy release rate, for several flat-bladed macroalgae, thereby assessing their resistance to complete fracture in the presence of cracks. Critical energy release rates are evaluated through single-edge-notch, pull-to-break tests and single-edge-notch, repeated-loading tests. Crack growth at sub-critical energy release rates is measured in repeated-loading tests, providing a first assessment of algal breakage under conditions of repeated loading. We then estimate the number of imposed waves required for un-notched algal blades to reach the point of complete fracture. We find that, if not checked by repair, fatigue crack growth from repeated sub-lethal stresses may completely fracture individuals within days. Our results suggest that fatigue may play an important role in macroalgal breakage.

Techniques for predicting the lifetimes of wave-swept macroalgae: a primer on fracture mechanics and crack growth

SUMMARY Biomechanical analyses of intertidal and shallow subtidal seaweeds have elucidated ways in which these organisms avoid breakage in the presence of exceptional hydrodynamic forces imposed by pounding surf. However, comparison of algal material properties to maximum hydrodynamic forces predicts lower rates of breakage and dislodgment than are actually observed. Why the disparity between prediction and reality? Most previous research has measured algal material properties during a single application of force, equivalent to a single wave rushing past an alga. In contrast, intertidal macroalgae may experience more than 8000 waves a day. This repeated loading can cause cracks– introduced, for example, by herbivory or abrasion – to grow and eventually cause breakage, yet fatigue crack growth has not previously been taken into account. Here, we present methods from the engineering field of fracture mechanics that can be used to assess consequences of repeated force imposition for seaweeds. These techniques allow quantification of crack growth in wave-swept macroalgae, a first step towards considering macroalgal breakage in the realistic context of repeated force imposition. These analyses can also be applied to many other soft materials.

Rightsizing carbon dioxide removal

Betting the future on planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is risky Proven approaches for limiting climate change include enhancing energy efficiency, capturing wind and solar energy, decreasing deforestation, and reducing industrial and agricultural emissions. These approaches are increasingly cost-competitive, consistent with large-scale use, and largely supported by public sentiment. Yet, the current pace of their deployment is far from sufficient for holding warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with high probability, the goal of the Paris Agreement. Two approaches for bridging this gap are widely discussed. First, the rate of decarbonization could be accelerated based on the above approaches. Second, continuing emissions could be compensated by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (1, 2). Technologies for carbon removal are mostly in their infancy, yet are increasingly asserted as key to climate policy. Here, we focus on rightsizing the expectations from carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

Dislodged but not dead: survivorship of a high intertidal snail following wave dislodgement

Waves breaking on rocky shorelines impart large forces on intertidal organisms, sometimes dislodging individuals. Dislodged individuals may be deposited in habitats that have a greater risk of predation or that prevent return to preferred regions on the shore. Thus, dislodgement is often assumed to be lethal. We experimentally dislodged Littorina keenae snails from high in the intertidal zone to test the likelihood of survival. Under a variety of wave conditions, we measured return rates to the high shore of 54–90%, so in this species, dislodgement is not equal to death. Snails showed a strong preference for returning to the approximate tidal height from which they were dislodged, but we found no evidence of widespread homing behaviour back to the original site of dislodgement.

Preference Versus Performance: Body Temperature of the Intertidal Snail Chlorostoma funebralis

Evolutionary theory predicts that, in variable environments, it is advantageous for ectothermic organisms to prefer a body temperature slightly below the physiological optimum. This theory works well for many terrestrial organisms but has not been tested for animals inhabiting the hypervariable physical environment of intertidal shores. In laboratory experiments, we allowed the intertidal snail Chlorostoma funebralis to position itself on a temperature gradient, then measured its thermal preference and determined an index of how its performance varied with temperature. Snails performed a biased random walk along the temperature gradient, which, contrary to expectations, caused them to aggregate where body temperature was 15 to 17 °C below their temperature of optimum performance and near the species’ lower thermal limit. This “cold-biased” behavioral response may guide snails to refuges in shaded cracks and crevices, but potentially precludes C. funebralis from taking full advantage of its physiological capabilities.