Katharine Sturm-Ramirez

Influenza seasonality and vaccination timing in tropical and subtropical areas of southern and south-eastern Asia

OBJECTIVE To characterize influenza seasonality and identify the best time of the year for vaccination against influenza in tropical and subtropical countries of southern and south-eastern Asia that lie north of the equator. METHODS Weekly influenza surveillance data for 2006 to 2011 were obtained from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Weekly rates of influenza activity were based on the percentage of all nasopharyngeal samples collected during the year that tested positive for influenza virus or viral nucleic acid on any given week. Monthly positivity rates were then calculated to define annual peaks of influenza activity in each country and across countries. FINDINGS Influenza activity peaked between June/July and October in seven countries, three of which showed a second peak in December to February. Countries closer to the equator had year-round circulation without discrete peaks. Viral types and subtypes varied from year to year but not across countries in a given year. The cumulative proportion of specimens that tested positive from June to November was > 60% in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Thus, these tropical and subtropical countries exhibited earlier influenza activity peaks than temperate climate countries north of the equator. CONCLUSION Most southern and south-eastern Asian countries lying north of the equator should consider vaccinating against influenza from April to June; countries near the equator without a distinct peak in influenza activity can base vaccination timing on local factors.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Circulation in Seven Countries With Global Disease Detection Regional Centers

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear. METHODS Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center. RESULTS RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya. CONCLUSIONS Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.

Multiple reassortment events among highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses detected in Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, little is known about the genomic composition and antigenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses, their geographic distribution, temporal patterns, or gene flow within the avian host population. Forty highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses isolated from humans and poultry in Bangladesh between 2008 and 2012 were analyzed by full genome sequencing and antigenic characterization. The analysis included viruses collected from avian hosts and environmental sampling in live bird markets, backyard poultry flocks, outbreak investigations in wild birds or poultry and from three human cases. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the ancestors of these viruses reassorted (1) with other gene lineages of the same clade, (2) between different clades and (3) with low pathogenicity avian influenza A virus subtypes. Bayesian estimates of the time of most recent common ancestry, combined with geographic information, provided evidence of probable routes and timelines of virus spread into and out of Bangladesh.

Economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh during 2010.

Understanding the costs of influenza‐associated illness in Bangladesh may help health authorities assess the cost‐effectiveness of influenza prevention programs. We estimated the annual economic burden of influenza‐associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh.

Seroprevalence of antibodies against highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus among poultry workers in Bangladesh, 2009.

We conducted a cross-sectional study in 2009 to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) [HPAI H5N1] virus antibodies among poultry workers at farms and live bird markets with confirmed/suspected poultry outbreaks during 2009 in Bangladesh. We tested sera by microneutralization assay using A/Bangladesh/207095/2008 (H5N1; clade 2.2.2) virus with confirmation by horse red blood cell hemagglutination inhibition and H5-specific Western blot assays. We enrolled 212 workers from 87 farms and 210 workers from three live bird markets. One hundred and two farm workers (48%) culled poultry. One hundred and ninety-three farm workers (91%) and 178 market workers (85%) reported direct contact with poultry that died during a laboratory confirmed HPAI H5N1 poultry farm outbreak or market poultry die-offs from suspected HPAI H5N1. Despite exposure to sick poultry, no farm or market poultry workers were seropositive for HPAI H5N1 virus antibodies (95% confidence interval 0–1%).

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Infection among Workers at Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh, 2009-2010

Evidence of infection was low despite frequent exposure to infected poultry and low use of personal protective equipment.

Unusually High Mortality in Waterfowl Caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) in Bangladesh

&NA; Mortality in ducks and geese caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) infection had not been previously identified in Bangladesh. In June–July 2011, we investigated mortality in ducks, geese and chickens with suspected H5N1 infection in a north‐eastern district of the country to identify the aetiologic agent and extent of the outbreak and identify possible associated human infections. We surveyed households and farms with affected poultry flocks in six villages in Netrokona district and collected cloacal and oropharyngeal swabs from sick birds and tissue samples from dead poultry. We conducted a survey in three of these villages to identify suspected human influenza‐like illness cases and collected nasopharyngeal and throat swabs. We tested all swabs by real‐time RT‐PCR, sequenced cultured viruses, and examined tissue samples by histopathology and immunohistochemistry to detect and characterize influenza virus infection. In the six villages, among the 240 surveyed households and 11 small‐scale farms, 61% (1789/2930) of chickens, 47% (4816/10 184) of ducks and 73% (358/493) of geese died within 14 days preceding the investigation. Of 70 sick poultry swabbed, 80% (56/70) had detectable RNA for influenza A/H5, including 89% (49/55) of ducks, 40% (2/5) of geese and 50% (5/10) of chickens. We isolated virus from six of 25 samples; sequence analysis of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene of these six isolates indicated clade 2.3.2.1a of H5N1 virus. Histopathological changes and immunohistochemistry staining of avian influenza viral antigens were recognized in the brain, pancreas and intestines of ducks and chickens. We identified ten human cases showing signs compatible with influenza‐like illness; four were positive for influenza A/H3; however, none were positive for influenza A/H5. The recently introduced H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1a virus caused unusually high mortality in ducks and geese. Heightened surveillance in poultry is warranted to guide appropriate diagnostic testing and detect novel influenza strains.

Genetically Diverse Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza A Virus Subtypes Co-Circulate among Poultry in Bangladesh.

Influenza virus surveillance, poultry outbreak investigations and genomic sequencing were assessed to understand the ecology and evolution of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) A viruses in Bangladesh from 2007 to 2013. We analyzed 506 avian specimens collected from poultry in live bird markets and backyard flocks to identify influenza A viruses. Virus isolation-positive specimens (n = 50) were subtyped and their coding-complete genomes were sequenced. The most frequently identified subtypes among LPAI isolates were H9N2, H11N3, H4N6, and H1N1. Less frequently detected subtypes included H1N3, H2N4, H3N2, H3N6, H3N8, H4N2, H5N2, H6N1, H6N7, and H7N9. Gene sequences were compared to publicly available sequences using phylogenetic inference approaches. Among the 14 subtypes identified, the majority of viral gene segments were most closely related to poultry or wild bird viruses commonly found in Southeast Asia, Europe, and/or northern Africa. LPAI subtypes were distributed over several geographic locations in Bangladesh, and surface and internal protein gene segments clustered phylogenetically with a diverse number of viral subtypes suggesting extensive reassortment among these LPAI viruses. H9N2 subtype viruses differed from other LPAI subtypes because genes from these viruses consistently clustered together, indicating this subtype is enzootic in Bangladesh. The H9N2 strains identified in Bangladesh were phylogenetically and antigenically related to previous human-derived H9N2 viruses detected in Bangladesh representing a potential source for human infection. In contrast, the circulating LPAI H5N2 and H7N9 viruses were both phylogenetically and antigenically unrelated to H5 viruses identified previously in humans in Bangladesh and H7N9 strains isolated from humans in China. In Bangladesh, domestic poultry sold in live bird markets carried a wide range of LPAI virus subtypes and a high diversity of genotypes. These findings, combined with the seven year timeframe of sampling, indicate a continuous circulation of these viruses in the country.

Incidence of and Risk Factors for Hospital-Acquired Diarrhea in Three Tertiary Care Public Hospitals in Bangladesh

During April 2007–April 2010, surveillance physicians in adult and pediatric medicine wards of three tertiary public hospitals in Bangladesh identified patients who developed hospital-acquired diarrhea. We calculated incidence of hospital-acquired diarrhea. To identify risk factors, we compared these patients to randomly selected patients from the same wards who were admitted > 72 hours without having diarrhea. The incidence of hospital-acquired diarrhea was 4.8 cases per 1,000 patient-days. Children < 1 year of age were more likely to develop hospital-acquired diarrhea than older children. The risk of developing hospital-acquired diarrhea increased for each additional day of hospitalization beyond 72 hours, whereas exposure to antibiotics within 72 hours of admission decreased the risk. There were three deaths among case-patients; all were infants. Patients, particularly young children, are at risk for hospital-acquired diarrhea and associated deaths in Bangladeshi hospitals. Further research to identify the responsible organisms and transmission routes could inform prevention strategies.

CONSISE statement on the reporting of Seroepidemiologic Studies for influenza (ROSES-I statement): an extension of the STROBE statement.

Population‐based serologic studies are a vital tool for understanding the epidemiology of influenza and other respiratory viruses, including the early assessment of the transmissibility and severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. However, interpretation of the results of serologic studies has been hampered by the diversity of approaches and the lack of standardized methods and reporting.