Katherine von Stackelberg

Evaluation of the Public Health Impacts of Traffic Congestion: A Health Risk Assessment

BackgroundTraffic congestion is a significant issue in urban areas in the United States and around the world. Previous analyses have estimated the economic costs of congestion, related to fuel and time wasted, but few have quantified the public health impacts or determined how these impacts compare in magnitude to the economic costs. Moreover, the relative magnitudes of economic and public health impacts of congestion would be expected to vary significantly across urban areas, as a function of road infrastructure, population density, and atmospheric conditions influencing pollutant formation, but this variability has not been explored.MethodsIn this study, we evaluate the public health impacts of ambient exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations associated with a business-as-usual scenario of predicted traffic congestion. We evaluate 83 individual urban areas using traffic demand models to estimate the degree of congestion in each area from 2000 to 2030. We link traffic volume and speed data with the MOBILE6 model to characterize emissions of PM2.5 and particle precursors attributable to congestion, and we use a source-receptor matrix to evaluate the impact of these emissions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Marginal concentration changes are related to a concentration-response function for mortality, with a value of statistical life approach used to monetize the impacts.ResultsWe estimate that the monetized value of PM2.5-related mortality attributable to congestion in these 83 cities in 2000 was approximately

A Systematic Review of Carcinogenic Outcomes and Potential Mechanisms from Exposure to 2,4-D and MCPA in the Environment

31 billion (2007 dollars), as compared with a value of time and fuel wasted of

Uncertainty and variability in risk from trophic transfer of contaminants in dredged sediments

60 billion. In future years, the economic impacts grow (to over

Exposure to Mixtures of Metals and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes: A Multidisciplinary Review Using an Adverse Outcome Pathway Framework.

100 billion in 2030) while the public health impacts decrease to

The use of spatial modeling in an aquatic food web to estimate exposure and risk.

13 billion in 2020 before increasing to

Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments

17 billion in 2030, given increasing population and congestion but lower emissions per vehicle. Across cities and years, the public health impacts range from more than an order of magnitude less to in excess of the economic impacts.ConclusionsOur analyses indicate that the public health impacts of congestion may be significant enough in magnitude, at least in some urban areas, to be considered in future evaluations of the benefits of policies to mitigate congestion.

Public health impacts of secondary particulate formation from aromatic hydrocarbons in gasoline

Chlorophenoxy compounds, particularly 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and 4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy)acetic acid (MCPA), are amongst the most widely used herbicides in the United States for both agricultural and residential applications. Epidemiologic studies suggest that exposure to 2,4-D and MCPA may be associated with increased risk non-Hodgkins lymphoma (NHL), Hodgkin’s disease (HD), leukemia, and soft-tissue sarcoma (STS). Toxicological studies in rodents show no evidence of carcinogenicity, and regulatory agencies worldwide consider chlorophenoxies as not likely to be carcinogenic or unclassifiable as to carcinogenicity. This systematic review assembles the available data to evaluate epidemiologic, toxicological, pharmacokinetic, exposure, and biomonitoring studies with respect to key cellular events noted in disease etiology and how those relate to hypothesized modes of action for these constituents to determine the plausibility of an association between exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of 2,4-D and MCPA and lymphohematopoietic cancers. The combined evidence does not support a genotoxic mode of action. Although plausible hypotheses for other carcinogenic modes of action exist, a comparison of biomonitoring data to oral equivalent doses calculated from bioassay data shows that environmental exposures are not sufficient to support a causal relationship. Genetic polymorphisms exist that are known to increase the risk of developing NHL. The potential interaction between these polymorphisms and exposures to chlorophenoxy compounds, particularly in occupational settings, is largely unknown.Chlorophenoxy compounds, particularly 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and 4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy)acetic acid (MCPA), are amongst the most widely used herbicides in the United States for both agricultural and residential applications. Epidemiologic studies suggest that exposure to 2,4-D and MCPA may be associated with increased risk non-Hodgkins lymphoma (NHL), Hodgkins disease (HD), leukemia, and soft-tissue sarcoma (STS). Toxicological studies in rodents show no evidence of carcinogenicity, and regulatory agencies worldwide consider chlorophenoxies as not likely to be carcinogenic or unclassifiable as to carcinogenicity. This systematic review assembles the available data to evaluate epidemiologic, toxicological, pharmacokinetic, exposure, and biomonitoring studies with respect to key cellular events noted in disease etiology and how those relate to hypothesized modes of action for these constituents to determine the plausibility of an association between exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of 2,4-D and MCPA and lymphohematopoietic cancers. The combined evidence does not support a genotoxic mode of action. Although plausible hypotheses for other carcinogenic modes of action exist, a comparison of biomonitoring data to oral equivalent doses calculated from bioassay data shows that environmental exposures are not sufficient to support a causal relationship. Genetic polymorphisms exist that are known to increase the risk of developing NHL. The potential interaction between these polymorphisms and exposures to chlorophenoxy compounds, particularly in occupational settings, is largely unknown.

Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management

The risks associated with bioaccumulative contaminants must be considered when evaluating dredged material disposal alternatives. The bioaccumulation of organochlorines and other contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in risk assessment. Both population variability (e.g. true population heterogeneity in body weight, lipid content, etc.) and uncertainty (e.g. measurement error) in trophic transfer can lead to large errors in predicted risk values for ecological receptors. This paper describes and quantitatively evaluates sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating the risk to an ecological receptor (osprey) from the trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in sediments from the New York-New Jersey (NY-NJ) Harbor. The distribution of toxicity quotients is obtained using a food chain model for the osprey and specifying distributions for input parameters, which are disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. PCB concentrations in sediment and water are treated as predominantly uncertain, whereas lipid content in fish, feeding preferences, and fish weight are assumed to contribute primarily to population variability in PCB accumulation. The analysis shows that point estimates of reasonable maximum exposure (RME) exceed the uncertainty bounds on the 95th percentile of variability. The analysis also shows that uncertainties in the sediment and water contaminant concentrations contribute more to the range of risk estimates than does the variability in the population exposure parameters. The separation of uncertainty and variability in food chain models can help to support management decisions regarding dredged material disposal by providing a quantitative expression of the confidence in ecological risk estimates. A rationale is provided for the distinction between uncertain and variable parameters based on management goals and data availability.

Decision analytic strategies for integrating ecosystem services and risk assessment

Current risk assessment guidance calls for an individual chemical-by-chemical approach that fails to capture potential interactive effects of exposure to environmental mixtures and genetic variability. We conducted a review of the literature on relationships between prenatal and early life exposure to mixtures of lead (Pb), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and manganese (Mn) with neurodevelopmental outcomes. We then used an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework to integrate lines of evidence from multiple disciplines based on evolving guidance developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Toxicological evidence suggests a greater than additive effect of combined exposures to As-Pb-Cd and to Mn with any other metal, and several epidemiologic studies also suggest synergistic effects from binary combinations of Pb-As, Pb-Cd, and Pb-Mn. The exposure levels reported in these epidemiologic studies largely fall at the high-end (e.g., 95th percentile) of biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), suggesting a small but significant potential for high-end exposures. This review integrates multiple data sources using an AOP framework and provides an initial application of the OECD guidance in the context of potential neurodevelopmental toxicity of several metals, recognizing the evolving nature of regulatory interpretation and acceptance.

A discussion on the use of probabilistic risk assessment in human health impact assessment

This paper quantitatively evaluates interactions among foraging behavior, habitat preferences, site characteristics and the spatial distribution of contaminants in estimating PCB exposure concentrations for winter flounder at a hypothetical open water dredged material disposal site in the coastal waters of New York and New Jersey (NY-NJ). The models implemented in this study include a spatial submodel to account for spatial and temporal characteristics of fish exposure and a probabilistic adaptation of the Gobas bioaccumulation model to account for temporal variation in concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in sediment and water. We estimated the geographic distribution of an offshore winter flounder subpopulation based on species biology, including such variables as foraging area, habitat size, disposal site size and migration characteristics. We incorporated these variables together with an estimate of differential attraction to a management site within a spatially explicit model to assess the range of expected PCB exposures to a winter flounder population. The output of this modeling effort, flounder PCB tissue concentrations, provides exposure point concentrations for estimates of human health risk through ingestion of locally caught flounder. The risks obtained for the spatially non-explicit case are as much as one order of magnitude higher than those obtained after incorporating spatial and temporal characteristics of winter flounder foraging and seasonal migration. Incorporating spatial and temporal variables in food chain models can help support sediment management decisions by providing a quantitative expression of the confidence in risk estimates.