Kathleen D. Walsh

Endogeneity and the corporate governance - performance relation

The governance-performance literature is characterized by its inability to reach a consensus regarding the nature of the relation. We posit that these inconsistent findings are symptomatic of inadequacies in the econometric techniques employed when adjusting for all forms of endogeneity. To test this, we fit a comprehensive model of performance and governance using a range of econometric techniques. Once a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) specification robust to all forms of endogeneity is employed, we observe no causal relation between governance and firm performance, suggesting that apparently significant relations uncovered by pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and fix-effects models are the result of spurious correlations.

Corporate governance and the probability of default

We employ Mertons probability of default as a continuous ex-ante measure of the likelihood of firm failure and dynamic panel generalised method of moments to better characterise the relationship between corporate governance and the chance of default. In doing so, we overcome limitations of discrete proxies widely used in previous studies and more completely account for endogeneity issues permeating this area of research. While initial testing designed to facilitate comparison with previous studies suggests a significant relationship between the probability of default and executive pay, board structure and ownership structure, once endogeneity concerns are accounted for, no such relationship remains.

Is the Ex Ante Risk Premium Always Positive? Further Evidence:

An implicit assumption of the conditional CAPM is that the ex ante equity risk premium is positive in all states of the world. Studies on US portfolios by Boudoukh, Richardson and Smith (1993) and on world portfolios by Ostdiek (1998) find violations of this assumption. This paper seeks to test the sign of the equity risk premium in the Australian market using two parallel tests. First, the series is examined for the presence of two regimes using a test developed in Bayesian inference. Truncated normal priors are applied to the means in this test to specifically detect means of opposite sign. Once a negative regime is identified in the risk premium, we try to identify it ex ante using the test developed by Boudoukh, Richardson and Smith (1993). This test allows the moments implied by the model to be conditioned on observable information. We were able to reject the null of a single regime in favour of the two-regime model using the regime-switching test. In addition the inequality tests on contemporaneous data rejected the restriction of a positive risk premium.

Equity Market Valuation: Assessing the Adequacy of Value Measures to Predict Index Returns

Following the work of Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999), we develop robust tests of their intrinsic value measure, along with other traditional measures of value, for the Australian Stock Market. Specifically, we apply the tests to a broadly matched version of the Australian Asia Pacific Extra Liquid Series (APELS), which was recently introduced to Australia. A primary motivation for the paper was to assess the suggestion implied in the US study of a violation of capital market efficiency, where the use of publicly available information, namely a fundamental valuation measure using consensus analysts forecasts, could be used to predict returns. Our results do not support the conclusions reached by Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999). Possible reasons for this are the differing Market structures, the use of a different Index or the use of alternative statistical tests.

The Investment Horizon and Asset Pricing Models

The Life Cycle Hypothesis suggests that the primary motivation for saving is to accumulate resources in order to fund retirement. This suggests that investors have heterogeneous investment horizons, yet many tests of the CAPM assume homogeneous horizons. This paper estimates a time varying heterogeneous investment horizon using over 200 years of demographic data. We test the CAPM and its assumption that the Equity Risk Premium is positive using our estimated investment horizon. We conclude that the CAPM is not violated when tested over a horizon that more accurately reflects investor behavior.

Market timing under multiple economic regimes

This article models the US equity premium as a regime-switching process where the regimes are dependent on economic variables. To characterise the economic regimes, we employ the dimension reduction technique of a principal components analysis to extract business cycle signals from a set of observed macroeconomic variables. We use these conditioning agents to infer the ex ante economic regime. We then test a dynamic asset allocation strategy, which invests in equity and cash on the basis of the predicted regimes. This timing strategy is shown to outperform a simple buy and hold strategy on a risk-adjusted basis.

RMB Trade Invoicing: Benefits, Impediments and Tipping Points

This paper analyses a survey of RMB invoicing awareness, use and expectations conducted on Australian and Chinese corporates. It considers the benefits of invoicing trade in RMB as well as a range of factors that would appear to be discouraging RMB use between Australia and China. It also identifies potential tipping points for increased RMB invoicing going forward.

The Corporate Governance and Performance Relation: A Small Firm Perspective

Compliance with corporate governance best practice is costly for all firms but can be prohibitively expensive for small firms, squeezing margins and depleting funds for reinvestment (Linck, Netter & Yang, 2008). In addition, small firms are not afforded the external governance mechanism of analyst coverage. Since most of the existing analysis of the relation between governance and performance has been conducted on large-cap firms this additional layer of external monitoring may serve as an omitted variable in the governance-performance relation. We therefore analyse a sample of small firms that are more dependent on their internal corporate governance practices and assess the governance performance relation. We apply dynamic panel generalised method of moments (GMM) models to account for the presence of endogeneity and find no evidence of a relation between a firm’s corporate governance and its performance.