Kathleen P. Bell

Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems Involving Microlevel Data

The application of spatial econometrics techniques to microlevel data of firms or households is problematic because of potentially large sample sizes and more-complicated spatial weight matrices. This paper provides the first application to actual household-level data of a new generalized-moments (GM) estimation technique developed by Kelejian and Prucha. The results based on this method, which is computationally feasible for any size data set, track those generated from the more conventional maximum-likelihood approach. The GM approach is shown to have the added advantage of easily allowing estimation of a more flexible functional form for the spatial weight matrix.

Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

Exotic Forest Insects and Residential Property Values

This paper presents a case study of the economic damages to homeowners in a northern New Jersey community due to an exotic forest insect—the hemlock woolly adelgid. Hedonic property value methods are used to estimate the effect of hemlock health on property values. A statistically significant relationship between hemlock health and residential property values is established. Moreover, there are some signs of spillover impacts from hemlock decline, as negative effects are realized on the parcels where the declining hemlock stands are located as well as on neighboring properties. These results give some indication of the benefits of potential control programs and strategies and also show support for community- or neighborhood-based programs in residential settings.

Willingness to Pay for Local Coho Salmon Enhancement in Coastal Communities

Salmon restoration and enhancement are dominant environmental policy issues in Oregon and Washington. In response to salmon species listings under the Endangered Species Act, salmon protection and recovery actions are being implemented throughout the Pacific Northwest at substantial opportunity costs. In this paper, we examine the willingness to pay (WTP) of coastal residents for local coho salmon enhancement programs. A contingent valuation study is completed using survey responses from five rural, coastal communities of Oregon and Washington, where coho salmon are prevalent. Our empirical results indicate that coastal residents are willing to pay for local coho salmon enhancement and that WTP varies considerably with individual opinions of the merit of the enhancement program.

Interactions between human communities and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest: Trends and implications for management

This paper explores social, and economic aspects of coastal communities crucial to the management of estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These aspects include the changing demographics and economies of coastal communities, and the public perceptions, attitudes, and values pertaining to estuarine ecosystems. Information from Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor in Washington and Tillamook, Yaquina, and Coos Bays in Oregon shows that the coastal communities are growing more slowly than the states overall., that the populations are relatively old, and that, although the local economies continue to rely on them, the extractive natural resource industries (fishing, aquaculture, agriculture, forest products) are declining in importance relative to tourism, recreation, and retirement industries. These trends suggest that human uses of the estuaries are changing in character, and altering the management problems. Coastal residents choose to live in these communities to enjoy the views and scenery, to experience rural living, to be near the ocean, and to recreate outdoors. People express coherent perceptions of risks to the estuaries, especially the threats of declining fish habitats, oil spills, shoreline development, invasive species, and logging in upland areas> Residential land values are enhanced by the presence of wetlands and forests and are diminished by the presence of hazardous waste sites. We conclude that, if recent trends in population age structure, income sources, and employment status continue, public attitudes and values will move towards stronger environmental protection. Because ecosystem management involves local public participation and collaboration, estuarine managers will be faced with both increased demands and opportunities.

Strengthening the role of universities in addressing sustainability challenges: the Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions as an institutional experiment

As the magnitude, complexity, and urgency of many sustainability problems increase, there is a growing need for universities to contribute more effectively to problem solving. Drawing upon prior research on social-ecological systems, knowledge- action connections, and organizational innovation, we developed an integrated conceptual framework for strengthening the capacity of universities to help society understand and respond to a wide range of sustainability challenges. Based on experiences gained in creating the Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions (Mitchell Center), we tested this framework by evaluating the experiences of interdisciplinary research teams involved in place-based, solutions-oriented research projects at the scale of a single region (i.e., the state of Maine, USA). We employed a multiple-case-study approach examining the experiences of three interdisciplinary research teams working on tidal energy development, adaptation to climate change, and forest vulnerability to an invasive insect. Drawing upon documents, observations, interviews, and other data sources, three common patterns emerged across these cases that were associated with more effective problem-solving strategies. First, an emphasis on local places and short-term dynamics in social- ecological systems research provides more frequent opportunities for learning while doing. Second, iterative stakeholder engagement and inclusive forms of knowledge co-production can generate substantial returns on investment, especially when researchers are dedicated to a shared process of problem identification and they avoid framing solutions too narrowly. Although these practices are time consuming, they can be accelerated by leveraging existing stakeholder relationships. Third, efforts to mobilize interdisciplinary expertise and link knowledge with action are facilitated by an organizational culture that emphasizes mutual respect, adaptability, and solutions. Participation of faculty associated with interdisciplinary academic programs, solutions-oriented fields, and units with partnership-oriented missions hastens collaboration within teams and between teams and stakeholders. The Mitchell Center also created a risk-tolerant culture that encouraged organizational learning. Solutions-focused programs at other universities can potentially benefit from the lessons we learned.

Improving management of small natural features on private lands by negotiating the science–policy boundary for Maine vernal pools

Significance We address a key sustainability challenge: management of natural resources on private land. Managing small natural features, such as vernal pools, on private land presents unique problems but also unique opportunities to provide benefits to both nature and society. Our innovative approach to management and research described here uses vernal pools as a model system but exemplifies a broader framework for understanding social and ecosystem processes, interactions between them, and how these interactions may facilitate solutions. The challenges and opportunities encountered in navigating the science–policy boundary presented here are not unique to vernal pools: Our findings have wider conservation significance for natural resource management, especially for other small natural features on private lands (e.g., riparian zones, prairie potholes). Vernal pools are far more important for providing ecosystem services than one would predict based on their small size. However, prevailing resource-management strategies are not effectively conserving pools and other small natural features on private lands. Solutions are complicated by tensions between private property and societal rights, uncertainties over resource location and function, diverse stakeholders, and fragmented regulatory authority. The development and testing of new conservation approaches that link scientific knowledge, stakeholder decision-making, and conservation outcomes are important responses to this conservation dilemma. Drawing from a 15-y history of vernal pool conservation efforts in Maine, we describe the coevolution of pool conservation and research approaches, focusing on how research-based knowledge was produced and used in support of management decisions. As management shifted from reactive, top-down approaches to proactive and flexible approaches, research shifted from an ecology-focused program to an interdisciplinary program based on social–ecological systems. The most effective strategies for linking scientific knowledge with action changed as the decision-makers, knowledge needs, and context for vernal pool management advanced. Interactions among stakeholders increased the extent to which knowledge was coproduced and shifted the objective of stakeholder engagement from outreach to research collaboration and development of innovative conservation approaches. New conservation strategies were possible because of the flexible, solutions-oriented collaborations and trust between scientists and decision-makers (fostered over 15 y) and interdisciplinary, engaged research. Solutions to the dilemma of conserving small natural features on private lands, and analogous sustainability science challenges, will benefit from repeated negotiations of the science–policy boundary.

Agent-Based Modeling of Harvest Decisions by Small Scale Forest Landowners in Maine, USA

Small-scale forests are an excellent example of coupled social-ecological systems, which involve human and biophysical subsystems with complex two-way feedback interactions. The multifaceted nature of landowner decisions drives a significant need to better understand decision-making processes, reactions to policy, and combined impacts on ecosystems in a comprehensive manner. Small-scale forests require an integrated approach to modeling the social and biophysical components comprehensively. Agent-based modeling involves modeling individualistic behavior and interpreting patterns that emerge. The interaction between agents and their environments makes this a valuable tool to assess repeated decisions of individual landowners responding to changing environmental conditions. Agent-based models can be used to determine potential ecological, economic, and social outcomes of landowner decisions and reactions to changing conditions. A forest landowner agent-based model experiment was developed to model timber harvesting in Maine, USA. We present baseline simulation results and compare the effect of a social change (an increased tax rate) and a biophysical change (a pest outbreak resulting in increased tree mortality) on the system. These three scenarios were analyzed using ANOVA and MANOVA tests on harvested hectares and landowner goal scores to assess landowner behavior and priorities by action. We conclude by reviewing implications for future modeling efforts.

Sustainability Science: A Call to Collaborative Action

Sustainability science is an emerging field directed at advancing sustainable development. Informed by recent scholarship and institutional experiments, we identify key roles for economists and encourage their greater participation in this research. Our call to collaborative action comes from positive experiences with the Sustainability Solutions Initiative based at the University of Maine, where economists collaborate with other experts and diverse stakeholders on real-world problems involving interactions between natural and human systems. We articulate a mutually beneficial setting where economists’ methods, skills, and norms add value to the problem-focused, interdisciplinary research of sustainability science and where resources, opportunities, and challenges from science bolster economic research specifically and land/sea grant institutions broadly.

Economic Aspects of Invasive Forest Pest Management

The past decade has evidenced growing concern with the causes and consequences of biological invasions, many of which are economic in nature (Perrings et al. 2002). The risk of a new pest introduction is positively correlated with world trade flows (Costello and McAusland 2003, Margolis et al. 2005) and new invasions threaten the productivity and biological diversity of native ecosystems (Mack et al. 2000). A recent study reports that roughly 50,000 exotic species are established in the United States and annual domestic costs and annual losses from invasive species (forest and non-forest) may exceed