Kathleen R. Laird

Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years

Knowledge of natural long-term rainfall variability is essential for water-resource and land-use management in sub-humid regions of the world. In tropical Africa, data relevant to determining this variability are scarce because of the lack of long instrumental climate records and the limited potential of standard high-resolution proxy records such as tree rings and ice cores. Here we present a decade-scale reconstruction of rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa over the past 1,100 years, based on lake-level and salinity fluctuations of Lake Naivasha (Kenya) inferred from three different palaeolimnological proxies: sediment stratigraphy and the species compositions of fossil diatom and midge assemblages. Our data indicate that, over the past millennium, equatorial east Africa has alternated between contrasting climate conditions, with significantly drier climate than today during the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (∼ ad 1000–1270) and a relatively wet climate during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (∼ ad 1270–1850) which was interrupted by three prolonged dry episodes. We also find strong chronological links between the reconstructed history of natural long-term rainfall variation and the pre-colonial cultural history of east Africa, highlighting the importance of a detailed knowledge of natural long-term rainfall fluctuations for sustainable socio-economic development.

Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia

Six high-resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the northern prairies of North America, show that shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. The predominant broad-scale pattern seen at all sites is a major shift in moisture regimes from wet to dry, or vice versa (depending on location), that occurred after a period of relative stability. These large-scale shifts at the different sites exhibit spatial coherence at regional scales. The three Canadian sites record this abrupt shift between anno Domini 500 and 800, and subsequently conditions become increasingly variable. All three U.S. sites underwent a pronounced change, but the timing of this change is between anno Domini 1000 and 1300, thus later than in all of the Canadian sites. The mechanisms behind these patterns are poorly understood, but they are likely related to changes in the shape and location of the jet stream and associated storm tracks. If the patterns seen at these sites are representative of the region, this observed pattern can have huge implications for future water availability in this region.

A 1500-year record of climatic and environmental change in ElkLake, Minnesota III: measures of past primary productivity

Diatom analysis of a varved sediment core from Elk Lake, Minnesotadocuments important natural and human-caused shifts in primary productivity atdecadal scales for the past 1500 years. Interpretations from a perspective ofplanktic diatom seasonal dynamics and from total phosphorus inferences based ona 111-lake training set of freshwater Canadian lakes reveal a major change tomore productive environments after 1000 years ago probably caused by earlierice-out and stronger, longer periods of lake circulation during the spring.European impacts in the region, principally logging in the Elk Lake drainage,during the past 100 years increased nutrient fluxes and turbulence during theopen water season to promote blooms of Aulacoseiraambigua. High resolution (semi-decadal) diatom analyses suggestsunspot cycle periodicities that may reflect short-term changes in thecharacter of irradiance and (or) sun-climate interactions. Total epilimneticphosphorus inferences from the Canadian training set applied to the Elk Lakediatom record document both long-term and short-term variations inproductivity and reconstruct past phosphorus values consistent with somepresent-day measured values at Elk Lake. The Elk Lake study underscores theneed for neolimnological monitoring of both training set and target lakes aswell as for the application of a multiple proxy protocol to documentpaleo-productivity that approaches neolimnological resolution.

Early-Holocene limnological and climatic variability in the Northern Great Plains

Information on the timing and direction of climatic and environmental change on a millennial scale exists for many regions of North America, whereas little is known about decadal-to centennial-scale variability. Here we present a high-resolution analysis of diatom-inferred salinity from a site in the Northern Great Plains to reconstruct multidecadal-and centennial-scale climatic patterns during the early Holocene. The diatominferred salinity indicates a transition from fresh to highly saline conditions between c. 13 400 and 7700 cal. yr BP, which suggests a major shift in climate from wet to dry conditions. The overall trend toward increasing salinity is interrupted by several freshwater intervals between c. 9800 and 7950 cal. yr BP, which may be the result of an increase in the frequency of monsoonal flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The early Holocene is considered to be a time of rapid change in climate and vegetation within the Holocene. Although rates of change in the Moon Lake diatom assemblages were high during parts of the early Holocene, in general the rate of change was as great or greater during the last two millennia. This finding may be the result of a generally directional change in climate in the early Holocene, in contrast to shorter-term fluctuations and little directionality in the late Holocene.

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia.

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions.

Dry Climate Disconnected the Laurentian Great Lakes

Recent studies have produced a new understanding of the hydrological history of North Americas Great Lakes, showing that water levels fell several meters below lake basin outlets during an early postglacial dry climate in the Holocene (younger than 10,000 radiocarbon years, or about 11,500 calibrated or calendar years before present (B.P.)). Water levels in the Huron basin, for example, fell more than 20 meters below the basin overflow outlet between about 7900 and 7500 radiocarbon (about 8770–8290 calibrated) years B.P. Outlet rivers, including the Niagara River, presently falling 99 meters from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario (and hence Niagara Falls), ran dry. This newly recognized phase of low lake levels in a dry climate provides a case study for evaluating the sensitivity of the Great Lakes to current and future climate change.

Climate-related eutrophication of a small boreal lake in northwestern Ontario: a palaeolimnological perspective:

A palaeolimnological investigation of changes in water quantity and quality in Lake 239, Experimental Lakes Area, in northwestern Ontario indicates marked changes in limnological conditions during the Holocene. Water quantity changes are based on the analysis of diatoms and inferences of lake-level changes from a nearshore sediment core. Changes in water quality are based on the analysis of diatom assemblages and associated quantitative inferences of total phosphorus (TP) from a deep central core, as well as changes in diatom accumulation rates, the proportion of chrysophyte scales to diatoms and changes to organic matter content. Lake levels at least 8 m lower than today were inferred from the nearshore core and were concurrent with an increase in nutrient-rich diatom assemblages, an increase in diatom accumulation and a decrease in the chrysophytes relative to diatoms in the central core. Fragilaria crotonensis and Aulacoseira subarctica were two of the dominant nutrient-rich taxa that contributed to an increase in diatom-inferred TP during the mid Holocene. Results from this study provide strong empirical evidence that water levels much lower than today can dramatically change trophic status, as occurred during the dry mid Holocene, and may provide a good analogue for understanding future impacts of climatic changes due to anthropogenic activities.

A cladoceran-based paleolimnological assessment of the impact of forest harvesting on four lakes from the central interior of British Columbia, Canada

To investigate the impact of forest harvesting on lake ecosystems, six lakes (four impact, two reference) from central British Columbia, Canada were assessed using cladoceran remains preserved in the lake sediment cores. Two temporal resolutions were analyzed: a decadal scale for the past 70 years, and a high-resolution scale (∼2 year intervals for ten years before and after harvesting). Three lakes which experienced forestry activity in their watersheds in the early 1960s, and one lake which experienced forestry activityin the mid 1970s, showed subtle but statistically significant changes in cladoceran species composition following forest harvesting (analysis of similarity tests) at the decadal scale, whereas only two of these lakes showed significant changes at the higher resolution. These changes may be due to increased nutrient levels that might be associated with forest harvesting. The two reference lakes, which had not experienced any known large-scale anthropogenic watershed disturbances in the past century, showed no significant shifts in the cladoceran species assemblages at either temporal scale.

Tracking Holocene Climatic Change with Aquatic Biota from Lake Sediments: Case Studies of Commonly Used Numerical Techniques

It is now widely recognised that reliable long-term climatic data are required to evaluate the impact of human activities on climate. Lake-sediment records are an important source of such palaeoclimatic information, on time-scales from years to millennia. However, unequivocal interpretation of biological climate-proxy data preserved in lake sediments can be very challenging. Here we review the different numerical approaches that are used to evaluate the sensitivity and reliability of species assemblages of aquatic biota (algae and invertebrates) extracted from lake-sediment records as proxies of past climatic conditions. The most common techniques used to assess this relationship between these proxies and climate include calibration functions that model the relationship across modern lake environments between species composition in the indicator group and particular climate-influenced aspects of their aquatic habitat, and assessments of the main directions of variation in species composition in relation to independent climatic data. Other statistical techniques, such as variation partitioning analysis, are used to assess the relative importance of climate versus other factors in influencing limnological changes seen in the sedimentary record. These techniques show that in climate-sensitive lake systems, the sedimentary remains of aquatic biota can be sensitive and trustworthy proxies, permitting quantitative reconstructions of past climatic conditions with high temporal resolution.

EXPLOITATION AND DESTABILIZATION OF A WARM, FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM THROUGH ENGINEERED HYDROLOGICAL CHANGE

Exploitation of freshwater resources is having catastrophic effects on the ecological dynamics, stability, and quality of those water resources on a global scale, especially in arid and semiarid regions. Lake Kinneret, Israel (the Biblical Sea of Galilee), the only major natural freshwater lake in the Middle East, has been transformed functionally into a reservoir over the course of approximately 70 years of hydrological alterations aimed mostly at producing electrical power and increasing domestic and agricultural water supply. Historical changes in lake chemistry and biology were reconstructed using analysis of sedimentary nutrient content, stable and radioisotope composition, biochemical and morphological fossils from algae, remains of aquatic invertebrates, and chemical indices of past light regimes. Together, these paleolimnological analyses of the lakes bottom sediments revealed that this transformation has been accompanied by acceleration in the rate of eutrophication, as indicated by increased accumulation rates of phosphorus, nitrogen, organic matter, phytoplankton and bacterial pigments, and remains of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Substantial increases in these indices of eutrophication coincide with periods of increased water-level fluctuations and drainage of a major upstream wetland in the early to middle 20th century and suggest that management of the lake for increased water supply has degraded water quality to the point that ecosystem stability and sustainability are threatened. Such destabilization may be a model for eutrophication of freshwater lakes in other arid regions of the world in which management emphasizes water quantity over quality.