Kathryn R. Fox

Risk Factors for Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis of 50 Years of Research.

Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) are major public health problems that have not declined appreciably in several decades. One of the first steps to improving the prevention and treatment of STBs is to establish risk factors (i.e., longitudinal predictors). To provide a summary of current knowledge about risk factors, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that have attempted to longitudinally predict a specific STB-related outcome. This included 365 studies (3,428 total risk factor effect sizes) from the past 50 years. The present random-effects meta-analysis produced several unexpected findings: across odds ratio, hazard ratio, and diagnostic accuracy analyses, prediction was only slightly better than chance for all outcomes; no broad category or subcategory accurately predicted far above chance levels; predictive ability has not improved across 50 years of research; studies rarely examined the combined effect of multiple risk factors; risk factors have been homogenous over time, with 5 broad categories accounting for nearly 80% of all risk factor tests; and the average study was nearly 10 years long, but longer studies did not produce better prediction. The homogeneity of existing research means that the present meta-analysis could only speak to STB risk factor associations within very narrow methodological limits—limits that have not allowed for tests that approximate most STB theories. The present meta-analysis accordingly highlights several fundamental changes needed in future studies. In particular, these findings suggest the need for a shift in focus from risk factors to machine learning-based risk algorithms.

Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors as risk factors for future suicide ideation, attempts, and death: a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND A history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) is consistently cited as one of the strongest predictors of future suicidal behavior. However, stark discrepancies in the literature raise questions about the true magnitude of these associations. The objective of this study is to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of the associations between SITBs and subsequent suicide ideation, attempts, and death. METHOD We searched PubMed, PsycInfo, and Google Scholar for papers published through December 2014. Inclusion required that studies include at least one longitudinal analysis predicting suicide ideation, attempts, or death using any SITB variable. We identified 2179 longitudinal studies; 172 met inclusion criteria. RESULTS The most common outcome was suicide attempt (47.80%), followed by death (40.50%) and ideation (11.60%). Median follow-up was 52 months (mean = 82.52, s.d. = 102.29). Overall prediction was weak, with weighted mean odds ratios (ORs) of 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-2.43] for ideation, 2.14 (95% CI 2.00-2.30) for attempts, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.39-1.71) for death. Adjusting for publication bias further reduced estimates. Diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity (86-87%) and poor sensitivity (10-26%), with areas under the curve marginally above chance (0.60-0.62). Most risk factors generated OR estimates of <2.0 and no risk factor exceeded 4.5. Effects were consistent regardless of sample severity, sample age groups, or follow-up length. CONCLUSIONS Prior SITBs confer risk for later suicidal thoughts and behaviors. However, they only provide a marginal improvement in diagnostic accuracy above chance. Addressing gaps in study design, assessment, and underlying mechanisms may prove useful in improving prediction and prevention of suicidal thoughts and behaviors.

Meta-analysis of risk factors for nonsuicidal self-injury

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) is a prevalent and dangerous phenomenon associated with many negative outcomes, including future suicidal behaviors. Research on these behaviors has primarily focused on correlates; however, an emerging body of research has focused on NSSI risk factors. To provide a summary of current knowledge about NSSI risk factors, we conducted a meta-analysis of published, prospective studies longitudinally predicting NSSI. This included 20 published reports across 5078 unique participants. Results from a random-effects model demonstrated significant, albeit weak, overall prediction of NSSI (OR=1.59; 95% CI: 1.50 to 1.69). Among specific NSSI risk factors, prior history of NSSI, cluster b, and hopelessness yielded the strongest effects (ORs>3.0); all remaining risk factor categories produced ORs near or below 2.0. NSSI measurement, sample type, sample age, and prediction case measurement type (i.e., binary versus continuous) moderated these effects. Additionally, results highlighted several limitations of the existing literature, including idiosyncratic NSSI measurement and few studies among samples with NSSI histories. These findings indicate that few strong NSSI risk factors have been identified, and suggest a need for examination of novel risk factors, standardized NSSI measurement, and study samples with a history of NSSI.

A brief mobile app reduces nonsuicidal and suicidal self-injury: evidence from three randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) are a major public health problem that traditional interventions have been unable to address on a large scale. The goal of this series of studies was to take initial steps toward developing an effective SITB treatment that can be easily delivered on a very large scale. METHOD We created a brief (1-2 min), game-like app called Therapeutic Evaluative Conditioning (TEC), designed to increase aversion to SITBs and decrease aversion to the self. In 3 separate studies, we recruited participants with recent and severe histories of SITBs from web forums focused on self-injury and psychopathology (Ns = 114, 131, and 163) and randomly assigned them to receive access to the mobile treatment TEC app or a control app for 1 month. We tested the effect of TEC on the frequency of self-cutting, nonsuicidal self-injury more generally, suicide ideation, suicide plans, and suicidal behaviors. RESULTS Analyses showed that, compared with the control app, TEC produced moderate reductions for all SITBs except suicide ideation. Across studies, the largest and most consistent reductions were for self-cutting episodes (32%-40%), suicide plans (21%-59%), and suicidal behaviors (33%-77%). Two of the 3 studies showed that TEC impacted its intended treatment targets and that greater change in these targets was associated with greater SITB reductions. TEC effects were not maintained at the 1-month posttreatment follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Future versions of brief, mobile interventions like that tested here may have the potential to reduce SITBs and related behaviors on a large scale. (PsycINFO Database Record

Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review

Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed.

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors.

Interactive models of depression vulnerability: the role of childhood trauma, dysfunctional attitudes, and coping.

OBJECTIVES This prospective study investigated whether within-individual relations between depression vulnerability factors (childhood trauma, dysfunctional attitudes, maladaptive coping) and depressive symptom trajectories varied as a function of the number of prior major depressive episodes (MDEs) experienced in their lifetime. DESIGN Participants were 68 young adults who varied with regard to their history of depression; 32 were remitted depressed and 36 were never depressed. METHODS Depressive symptoms and disorders were assessed using semi-structured psychiatric interviews conducted twice over a 6-month period; interviews yielded weekly ratings of depressive symptoms during the follow-up interval. Childhood trauma, dysfunctional attitudes and coping were assessed with self-report measures. Data analyses were conducted using time-lagged multilevel models. RESULTS Individuals with more previous MDEs who reported greater childhood trauma exposure, more dysfunctional attitudes, or greater use of maladaptive coping strategies experienced more rapid increases in depressive symptoms during the follow-up period. A significant interaction of coping, number of previous MDEs, and time was found indicating that among individuals with less adaptive coping (i.e., lower primary or lower secondary control coping scores), depressive symptoms rating (DSR) increased significantly in relation to number of prior depressive episodes; no change in DSR was observed for never-depressed individuals. Among individuals with higher primary control coping scores, significant increases in DSR scores were observed for individuals with ≥3 prior MDEs only. CONCLUSIONS Findings highlight the need for treatment and prevention programmes that target stress reactivity and coping strategies early in the course of depression.

Classifying nonsuicidal overdoses: Nonsuicidal self-injury, suicide attempts, or neither?

Self-injurious behaviors (SIBs) are leading causes of death and injury. Unfortunately, disagreement regarding whether and how to classify suicidal and nonsuicidal SIBs has contributed to their misclassification, likely hindering clinical care and impeding scientific progress. The present study utilized a data-driven approach to facilitate classification and measurement of three forms of SIBs, with a particular focus on one with scant clinical and scientific attention: nonsuicidal overdoses (i.e. intentional overdoses where the person states that they had no intention of dying from the overdose). Results from this study demonstrated that nonsuicidal overdoses were similar to suicide attempts in terms of age of onset, and similar to nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) in terms of suicidal thoughts and desire to die when engaging in these behaviors. Nonsuicidal overdoses were unique from NSSI and suicide attempts in terms of the reported likelihood of dying from the behavior. The present study highlighted that current definitions for nonsuicidal behaviors (including requirements that the person has zero intent to die) may not accurately represent peoples intent when engaging in these behaviors. Additionally, the present study highlighted that empirical analysis of SIBs can provide important insights for classification of SIBs.

Why Does Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Improve Mood? A Preliminary Test of Three Hypotheses

People who engage in nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) often state that it helps them feel better. We tested three hypotheses through which this mood modification might occur. Following a negative mood induction, adults reporting past year NSSI were randomized into a control (i.e., sitting alone quietly), mild distraction, or pain condition. All participants completed mood ratings at regular intervals. No mood repair occurred in the control condition. However, distraction improved mood both during and after the activity. Participants who self-administered pain reported no overall mood change, suggesting that contrary to popular NSSI theories, pain likely does not improve mood via distraction. However, as predicted, level of self-criticism moderated mood change during pain. Participants high on self-criticism felt significantly better during pain and participants low on self-criticism felt significantly worse during pain. Findings shed light on how NSSI improves mood by clarifying the circumstances under which different affect regulation processes may operate.

Depression and hopelessness as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts and death: meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND Many studies have documented robust relationships between depression and hopelessness and subsequent suicidal thoughts and behaviours; however, much weaker and non-significant effects have also been reported. These inconsistencies raise questions about whether and to what degree these factors confer risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviours.AimsThis study aimed to evaluate the magnitude and clinical utility of depression and hopelessness as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts and death. METHOD We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies from 1971 to 31 December 2014 that included at least one longitudinal analysis predicting suicide ideation, attempt or death using any depression or hopelessness variable. RESULTS Overall prediction was weaker than anticipated, with weighted mean odds ratios of 1.96 (1.81-2.13) for ideation, 1.63 (1.55-1.72) for attempt and 1.33 (1.18-1.49) for death. Adjusting for publication bias further reduced estimates. Effects generally persisted regardless of sample severity, sample age or follow-up length. CONCLUSIONS Several methodological constraints were prominent across studies; addressing these issues would likely be fruitful moving forward.Declaration of interestNone.