Katja Schulz

Hunters' acceptability of the surveillance system and alternative surveillance strategies for classical swine fever in wild boar - a participatory approach

BackgroundSurveillance measures can only be effective if key players in the system accept them. Acceptability, which describes the willingness of persons to contribute, is often analyzed using participatory methods. Participatory epidemiology enables the active involvement of key players in the assessment of epidemiological issues. In the present study, we used a participatory method recently developed by CIRAD (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) to evaluate the functionality and acceptability of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) surveillance in wild boar in Germany, which is highly dependent on the participation of hunters. The acceptability of alternative surveillance strategies was also analyzed. By conducting focus group discussions, potential vulnerabilities in the system were detected and feasible alternative surveillance strategies identified.ResultsTrust in the current surveillance system is high, whereas the acceptability of the operation of the system is medium. Analysis of the acceptability of alternative surveillance strategies showed how risk-based surveillance approaches can be combined to develop strategies that have sufficient support and functionality. Furthermore, some surveillance strategies were clearly rejected by the hunters. Thus, the implementation of such strategies may be difficult.ConclusionsParticipatory methods can be used to evaluate the functionality and acceptability of existing surveillance plans for CSF among hunters and to optimize plans regarding their chances of successful implementation.

African and classical swine fever: similarities, differences and epidemiological consequences

For the global pig industry, classical (CSF) and African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are a constantly feared threat. Except for Sardinia, ASF was eradicated in Europe in the late 1990s, which led to a research focus on CSF because this disease continued to be present. However, ASF remerged in eastern Europe in 2007 and the interest in the disease, its control and epidemiology increased tremendously. The similar names and the same susceptible species suggest a similarity of the two viral diseases, a related biological behaviour and, correspondingly, similar epidemiological features. However, there are several essential differences between both diseases, which need to be considered for the design of control or preventive measures. In the present review, we aimed to collate differences and similarities of the two diseases that impact epidemiology and thus the necessary control actions. Our objective was to discuss critically, if and to which extent the current knowledge can be transferred from one disease to the other and where new findings should lead to a critical review of measures relating to the prevention, control and surveillance of ASF and CSF. Another intention was to identify research gaps, which need to be closed to increase the chances of a successful eradication of ASF and therefore for a decrease of the economic threat for pig holdings and the international trade.

Surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar – a comprehensive evaluation study to ensure powerful surveillance

Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar.

The challenge of detecting classical swine fever virus circulation in wild boar (Sus scrofa): Simulation of sampling options

Abstract Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important viral diseases of domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and wild boar (Sus scrofa). For at least 4 decades, several European Union member states were confronted with outbreaks among wild boar and, as it had been shown that infected wild boar populations can be a major cause of primary outbreaks in domestic pigs, strict control measures for both species were implemented. To guarantee early detection and to demonstrate freedom from disease, intensive surveillance is carried out based on a hunting bag sample. In this context, virologic investigations play a major role in the early detection of new introductions and in regions immunized with a conventional vaccine. The required financial resources and personnel for reliable testing are often large, and sufficient sample sizes to detect low virus prevalences are difficult to obtain. We conducted a simulation to model the possible impact of changes in sample size and sampling intervals on the probability of CSF virus detection based on a study area of 65 German hunting grounds. A 5-yr period with 4,652 virologic investigations was considered. Results suggest that low prevalences could not be detected with a justifiable effort. The simulation of increased sample sizes per sampling interval showed only a slightly better performance but would be unrealistic in practice, especially outside the main hunting season. Further studies on other approaches such as targeted or risk-based sampling for virus detection in connection with (marker) antibody surveillance are needed.

Development of African swine fever epidemic among wild boar in Estonia - two different areas in the epidemiological focus

African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar emerged in Estonia for the first time in September 2014. The first affected region was located in the South of Estonia close to the border with Latvia. It was considered to be epidemiologically connected to the outbreaks in the North of Latvia. About two weeks later, cases were detected in the North of Estonia, close to the Russian border. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the epidemiological courses of the disease in the South and in the North of Estonia. Potential associations between risk factors and the laboratory test results for ASF were examined. A hierarchical Bayesian space–time model was used to analyze the temporal trend of the ASF seroprevalence in the two areas. Young wild boar were statistically significant more likely to be ASF-positive by both, serology and virus detection, than older animals. A statistically significant difference between the two areas in the temporal course of the seroprevalence was found. While the seroprevalence clearly increased in the South, it remained relatively constant in the North. These findings led to the hypothesis that ASF might have been introduced earlier into the North of Estonia then into the South of the country.

Epidemiological analysis of the 2015–2017 African swine fever outbreaks in Estonia

African swine fever (ASF) was first detected in the Estonian wild boar population in September 2014, while the first domestic pig farm was affected in July 2015. In the present study, we aimed to analyse, retrospectively, the epidemiology of the disease in all 26 outbreaks in domestic pig herds that occurred in Estonia during the period 2015-2017. Formal interviews were conducted to estimate the high-risk period for every farm, and to identify the possible origin of the ASF virus and the mode of virus introduction. Furthermore, the clinical manifestation of the disease as well as the course of the disease within the farm were investigated. Survival analysis was used to calculate herd incidence and to estimate outbreak risk. A hierarchical Bayesian space-time model was used to analyse the associations between outbreaks and ASF occurrence in wild boar. The spatial and temporal distribution of outbreaks was analysed to characterise the ASF epidemic in the Estonian domestic pig population from 2015 to 2017. The estimated high-risk period varied from seven to 20 days with a median of 11 days. On most of the affected farms, the first clinical signs were mild and not specific to ASF despite the high virulence of the circulating virus. Morbidity and mortality were often limited to a single pen or unit of the farm. The highest mortality (29.7%) was seen on backyard farms with 1-10 pigs and the lowest (0.7%) on large commercial farms (>1000 pigs). The spread of the virus within affected farms has been slow and the contagiousness of the virus has been relatively low. Farms of all sizes and types have been at risk, including large commercial farms operating at a high biosecurity level. In none of the affected farms could the specific route of introduction be verified. However, the findings suggested that virus introduction occurred via indirect transmission routes due to insufficient biosecurity. The total herd incidence of outbreaks was similar across all three years, being 2.4% in 2015 and 2016, and 2.0% in 2017. All outbreaks occurred from June to September, during the warmest period of the year. The results suggest that the increase in ASF cases in local wild boar populations is the main risk factor leading to the infection of farms; 88% of outbreaks occurred in areas where ASF virus was detected in wild boar prior to the outbreak, within a radius of 15 km from the outbreak farm.