Katrien Heirman

Lacustrine turbidites as a tool for quantitative earthquake reconstruction: new evidence for a variable rupture mode in south central Chile

Understanding the long-term earthquake recurrence pattern at subduction zones requires continuous paleoseismic records with excellent temporal and spatial resolution and stable threshold conditions. South central Chilean lakes are typically characterized by laminated sediments providing a quasi-annual resolution. Our sedimentary data show that lacustrine turbidite sequences accurately reflect the historical record of large interplate earthquakes (among others the 2010 and 1960 events). Furthermore, we found that a turbidites spatial extent and thickness are a function of the local seismic intensity and can be used for reconstructing paleo-intensities. Consequently, our multilake turbidite record aids in pinpointing magnitudes, rupture locations, and extent of past subduction earthquakes in south central Chile. Comparison of the lacustrine turbidite records with historical reports, a paleotsunami/subsidence record, and a marine megaturbidite record demonstrates that the Valdivia Segment is characterized by a variable rupture mode over the last 900 years including (i) full ruptures (Mw ~9.5: 1960, 1575, 1319 ± 9, 1127 ± 44), (ii) ruptures covering half of the Valdivia Segment (Mw ~9: 1837), and (iii) partial ruptures of much smaller coseismic slip and extent (Mw ~7.5–8: 1737, 1466 ± 4). Also, distant or smaller local earthquakes can leave a specific sedimentary imprint which may resolve subtle differences in seismic intensity values. For instance, the 2010 event at the Maule Segment produced higher seismic intensities toward southeastern localities compared to previous megathrust ruptures of similar size and extent near Concepciόn.

The 600 yr eruptive history of Villarrica Volcano (Chile) revealed by annually laminated lake sediments

Lake sediments contain valuable information about past volcanic and seismic events that have affected the lake catchment, and they provide unique records of the recurrence interval and magnitude of such events. This study uses a multilake and multiproxy analytical approach to obtain reliable and high-resolution records of past natural catastrophes from ~600-yr-old annually laminated (varved) lake sediment sequences extracted from two lakes, Villarrica and Calafquen, in the volcanically and seismically active Chilean Lake District. Using a combination of micro–X-ray fl uorescence (µXRF) scanning, microfacies analysis, grain-size analysis, color analysis, and magnetic-susceptibility measurements, we detect and characterize four different types of event deposits (lacustrine turbidites, tephra-fall layers , runoff cryptotephras, and lahar deposits) and produce a revised eruption record for Villarrica Volcano, which is unprecedented in its continuity and temporal resolution. Glass geochemistry and mineralogy also reveal deposits of eruptions from the more remote Carran–Los Venados volcanic complex, Quetrupillan Volcano, and the Huanquihue Group in the studied lake sediments. Time-series analysis shows 112 eruptions with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) ≥2 from Villarrica Volcano in the last ~600 yr, of which at least 22 also produced lahars. This signifi cantly expands our knowledge of the eruptive frequency of the volcano in this time window, compared to the previously known eruptive history from historical records. The last VEI ≥2 eruption of Villarrica Volcano occurred in 1991. Based on the last ~500 yr, for which we have a complete record from both lakes, we estimate the probability of the occurrence of future eruptions from Villarrica Volcano and statistically demonstrate that the probability of a 22 yr repose period (anno 2013) without VEI ≥2 eruptions is ≤1.7%. This new perspective on the recurrence interval of eruptions and historical lahar activity will help improve volcanic hazard assessments for this rapidly expanding tourist region, and it highlights how lake records can be used to signifi cantly improve historical eruption records in areas that were previously uninhabited.

Absence of a Medieval climate anomaly, Little Ice Age and twentieth century warming in Skarvsnes, Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica

Abstract Palaeoclimate changes, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, are well-defined in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2000 years. In contrast, these anomalies appear to be either absent, or less well-defined, in high-latitude regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we inferred environmental changes during the past two millennia from proxies in a sediment core from Mago Ike, an East Antarctic lake in Skarvsnes (Lützow Holm Bay). Variations in lake primary production were inferred from fossil pigments, sedimentological and geochemical proxies and combined with absolute diatom counts to infer past diatom productivity and community changes. Three distinct stratigraphic zones were recognized, resulting from a shift from marine to lacustrine conditions with a clear transition zone in between. The presence of open-water marine diatoms indicates a coastal zone seasonally free of sea ice between c. 2120–1500 cal yr bp. Subsequently, the lake became isolated from the ocean due to isostatic uplift. Freshwater conditions were established from c. 1120 cal yr bp onwards after which the proxies are considered highly sensitive to temperature changes. There is no evidence for a Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age or twentieth century warming in our lake sediment record suggesting that studies that have imposed Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies onto Southern Hemisphere palaeoclimate records should be treated with caution.