Katrin Elborgh-Woytek

Of Openess and Distance : Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002

This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level plateau since then owing to regional and country-specific factors. These include slower progress in transition, geographic aspects, restrictions on trade, governance and corruption problems, weak infrastructure, lack of regional cooperation, and political conflicts. Regression results show that trade openness of the CIS countries would likely increase substantially if market-oriented reforms were pursued more vigorously.

Who Is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism?: Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

This paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a cross-sectional model stressing two major factors: conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development, as proxied by measures of corruption, is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of communist rule allows us to use years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.

An Interim Assessment of Ukrainian Output Developments, 2000-01

After a long period of steep decline which followed the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraines economy rebounded in 2000, and the recovery accelerated in 2001. The paper examines the timing and the nature of the recovery from a number of different perspectives such as the presence of idle but productive capital, the stance of domestic policies, real wage developments, learning, and foreign factors. The final chapter presents tentative conclusions, which point to an eclectic explanation involving a range of factors rather then any single major cause of the recovery, as well as an agenda for further research.

Beauty Queens and Wallflowers-Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia

Against the background of the theory of optimum currency areas, the paper analyzes possible sequences for establishing a currency union (CU) in the Middle East and Central Asia region. Between the corner solutions of independent currencies for all countries in the region and a CU comprising all countries, a large number of combinations of member countries in the CU is possible. The analysis aims to determine the composition of potential CUs as a function of the country initiating the CU, an exogenously determined number of currencies in the region, and the weight attached to the particular selection criteria. Within this framework, the study seeks to establish whether some countries are consistently selected at early stages of the process, while others join only at later stages.

Reaching the MDGs: An Action Plan for Trade

The actions proposed here focus on trade integration, substantially increasing exports of the poorest countries and helping them to meet the Millennium Development Goals. As the foundation for these ambitions, we emphasize the role of a secure, open global trading environment—strengthened further by concluding the WTO Doha Round. From this base, the poorest countries also need better trade preferences from the advanced and major emerging market countries (EMs). Building the capacity to take advantage of trade opportunities will require support from the international community and policy reforms—such as to trade regimes—by the poorest countries themselves. The Fifteen Point Action Plan proposed here could increase annual exports of the least-developed countries (LDCs) by

Privatization in Ukraine; Challenges of Assessment and Coverage in Fund Conditionality

10 billion or more, with additional benefits for other Low-Income Countries (LICs).