Katrina Jacobs

National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update

A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seis- mologists has collectively produced an update of the national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand (National Seismic Hazard Model, or NSHM). The new NSHM supersedes the earlier NSHM published in 2002 and used as the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard and numerous other end-user applica- tions. The new NSHM incorporates a fault source model that has been updated with over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources and utilizes new New Zealand-based and international scaling relationships for the parameterization of the faults. The dis- tributed seismicity model has also been updated to include post-1997 seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalization, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced from the new NSHM show a similar pattern of hazard to the earlier model at the national scale, but there are some significant reductions and increases in hazard at the regional scale. The national-scale differences between the new and earlier NSHM appear less than those seen between much earlier national models, indicating that some degree of consis- tency has been achieved in the national-scale pattern of hazard estimates, at least for return periods of 475 years and greater. Online Material: Table of fault source parameters for the 2010 national seismic- hazard model.

Extreme hydrothermal conditions at an active plate-bounding fault

Temperature and fluid pressure conditions control rock deformation and mineralization on geological faults, and hence the distribution of earthquakes. Typical intraplate continental crust has hydrostatic fluid pressure and a near-surface thermal gradient of 31 ± 15 degrees Celsius per kilometre. At temperatures above 300–450 degrees Celsius, usually found at depths greater than 10–15 kilometres, the intra-crystalline plasticity of quartz and feldspar relieves stress by aseismic creep and earthquakes are infrequent. Hydrothermal conditions control the stability of mineral phases and hence frictional–mechanical processes associated with earthquake rupture cycles, but there are few temperature and fluid pressure data from active plate-bounding faults. Here we report results from a borehole drilled into the upper part of the Alpine Fault, which is late in its cycle of stress accumulation and expected to rupture in a magnitude 8 earthquake in the coming decades. The borehole (depth 893 metres) revealed a pore fluid pressure gradient exceeding 9 ± 1 per cent above hydrostatic levels and an average geothermal gradient of 125 ± 55 degrees Celsius per kilometre within the hanging wall of the fault. These extreme hydrothermal conditions result from rapid fault movement, which transports rock and heat from depth, and topographically driven fluid movement that concentrates heat into valleys. Shear heating may occur within the fault but is not required to explain our observations. Our data and models show that highly anomalous fluid pressure and temperature gradients in the upper part of the seismogenic zone can be created by positive feedbacks between processes of fault slip, rock fracturing and alteration, and landscape development at plate-bounding faults.

Bedrock geology of DFDP-2B, central Alpine Fault, New Zealand

ABSTRACT During the second phase of the Alpine Fault, Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) in the Whataroa River, South Westland, New Zealand, bedrock was encountered in the DFDP-2B borehole from 238.5–893.2 m Measured Depth (MD). Continuous sampling and meso- to microscale characterisation of whole rock cuttings established that, in sequence, the borehole sampled amphibolite facies, Torlesse Composite Terrane-derived schists, protomylonites and mylonites, terminating 200–400 m above an Alpine Fault Principal Slip Zone (PSZ) with a maximum dip of 62°. The most diagnostic structural features of increasing PSZ proximity were the occurrence of shear bands and reduction in mean quartz grain sizes. A change in composition to greater mica:quartz + feldspar, most markedly below c. 700 m MD, is inferred to result from either heterogeneous sampling or a change in lithology related to alteration. Major oxide variations suggest the fault-proximal Alpine Fault alteration zone, as previously defined in DFDP-1 core, was not sampled.

Background and delayed‐triggered swarms in the central Southern Alps, South Island, New Zealand

Low-magnitude earthquake swarms (ML ≤ 2.8), consisting of up to 47 events of similar waveforms, have been observed repeatedly in the central Southern Alps, a rapidly uplifting orogen bounded by the transpressive Alpine Fault in the South Island of New Zealand. We compare nine background swarms recorded between November 2008 and April 2010 with five delayed-triggered swarms that occurred after the MW 7.8 Dusky Sound and the MW 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquakes. The two types of swarms are similar in terms of the magnitudes, depths, focal mechanisms, and interevent times of the constituent microearthquakes, and appear to both involve the rupture of steeply dipping faults in highly fractured crust in a 10 km × 12 km area in the center of the SAMBA network. The delayed-triggered swarms occurred at similar epicentral distances (c. 4.5× the rupture length of the mainshocks) to the Dusky Sound and Darfield earthquakes, commenced shortly after the passage of the surface waves, continued for ∼5 and ∼2 days, respectively, and were followed in each case by a ≥2 day long quiescent period, which may suggest clock-advanced of faults in their failure-cycle. Triggering thresholds of ≥0.01 MPa proposed elsewhere are similar to the dynamic stress changes computed for the Southern Alps (≥0.09 MPa). However, as 98% of the locatable triggered events occurred several hours after the surface waves had passed, the dynamic stress changes associated with the surface waves themselves are unlikely to have triggered the earthquakes directly. Instead, we suggest that the locations and delays of the triggered swarms are more consistent with triggering by pore pressure diffusion.

Petrophysical, Geochemical, and Hydrological Evidence for Extensive Fracture-Mediated Fluid and Heat Transport in the Alpine Fault's Hanging-Wall Damage Zone

Fault rock assemblages reflect interaction between deformation, stress, temperature, fluid, and chemical regimes on distinct spatial and temporal scales at various positions in the crust. Here we interpret measurements made in the hanging-wall of the Alpine Fault during the second stage of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP-2). We present observational evidence for extensive fracturing and high hanging-wall hydraulic conductivity (∼10−9 to 10−7 m/s, corresponding to permeability of ∼10−16 to 10−14 m2) extending several hundred meters from the faults principal slip zone. Mud losses, gas chemistry anomalies, and petrophysical data indicate that a subset of fractures intersected by the borehole are capable of transmitting fluid volumes of several cubic meters on time scales of hours. DFDP-2 observations and other data suggest that this hydrogeologically active portion of the fault zone in the hanging-wall is several kilometers wide in the uppermost crust. This finding is consistent with numerical models of earthquake rupture and off-fault damage. We conclude that the mechanically and hydrogeologically active part of the Alpine Fault is a more dynamic and extensive feature than commonly described in models based on exhumed faults. We propose that the hydrogeologically active damage zone of the Alpine Fault and other large active faults in areas of high topographic relief can be subdivided into an inner zone in which damage is controlled principally by earthquake rupture processes and an outer zone in which damage reflects coseismic shaking, strain accumulation and release on interseismic timescales, and inherited fracturing related to exhumation.

Quantifying seismicity associated with slow slip events in the Hikurangi margin, New Zealand

ABSTRACT To investigate the relationship between seismicity and slow slip events (SSEs) in the Hikurangi margin we calculate seismicity rates during SSEs using the raw GeoNet earthquake catalogue and a derived sequence catalogue from 2002 through 2011. Most regions have more seismicity during SSEs times; the increase is significant for six out of nine regions. Seismicity regionally accompanying SSEs in the Manawatu and Kapiti regions is part of a cluster of normal faulting earthquakes correlated to a convergence-parallel SHmax stress direction. Seismicity accompanies the smallest published SSE in 2009, which suggests that the occurrence of seismicity is independent of the total slip. The Manawatu–Kapiti and East Coast regions have, respectively, 1.3 and 1.5 times the average rate of sequences during SSEs. The link between the rate of earthquakes and the timing of SSEs indicates that understanding the connection between the two is important for future hazard analysis and earthquake forecasts.