Katrina Mullan

Forest Figures: Ecosystem Services Valuation and Policy Evaluation in Developing Countries

We review the evidence on the economic values of forest ecosystem services in developing nations and the effectiveness of policies aimed at protecting these services. We conclude that, despite a plethora of publications, the literature is thin, with few well-designed studies that can provide a coherent picture of ecosystem values or policy effectiveness. Although ecologists coined the term ecosystem services and have led much of the recent research, ecosystem services is fundamentally an economic concept. This offers economists a unique and important opportunity to contribute to the emerging literature on ecosystem valuation and policy effectiveness. Most importantly, we conclude that the most fruitful path for future inquiry is to more tightly integrate policy and research by conducting studies that combine nonmarket valuation and impact evaluation (i.e., valuation estimates based on observed impacts in the context of real-world programs). We believe that investing scarce research funds in such an integrated approach will increase the likelihood that future research on ecosystem services will yield high-quality evidence of practical use to policymakers.

Evaluation of the Impact of the Natural Forest Protection Program on Rural Household Livelihoods

In this study, we estimated the impact on local household livelihoods of the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), which is the largest logging-ban program in the world, which aims to protect watersheds and conserve natural forests. In doing so, we used a series of microeconometric policy-evaluation techniques to assess the impacts of the NFPP on two interrelated facets of household livelihoods: income and off-farm labor supply. We found that the NFPP has had a negative impact on incomes from timber harvesting but has actually had a positive impact on total household incomes from all sources. Furthermore, we found that off-farm labor supply outside the village has increased more rapidly in NFPP than in non-NFPP areas. Based on these results, policy implications for household livelihoods were drawn and are presented herein.

Detecting and interpreting secondary forest on an old Amazonian frontier

Land uses that replace tropical forests are important determinants of terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity. This includes secondary forest growth after deforestation, which has been integrated into the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) concept as a means to enhance current forest carbon stocks. Incorporating secondary forest into climate change mitigation efforts requires both accurate measurements and a means to target interventions to achieve additionality. We demonstrate how remote sensing and household survey data can be combined to meet these requirements in ‘old frontiers’ of the Brazilian Amazon and introduce the idea that annual land-cover transitions − measured at the pixel level and over time − can serve as leading indicators of secondary forest regrowth. The patterns we observe are consistent with the suggested tension between equity and additionality in REDD+: the poorest households on the poorest quality lots already allow forest regeneration. Policy interventions to encourage regeneration are likely to have the greatest additional impact on higher quality lots owned by better capitalized households.

Participation in Payments for Ecosystem Services programmes: accounting for participant heterogeneity

This article examines heterogeneity in the preferences of households regarding participation in a Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programme. We argue that such heterogeneity is particularly likely for schemes that are implemented in a developing-country setting, where households differ in their degree of integration into markets. We use the case study of the Sloping Land Conversion Programme (SLCP) in China, one of the largest PES schemes in the world. As the SLCP is not voluntary in all cases, we compare the determinants of observed participation with households’ stated preferences about future participation. Our analysis uses a novel latent-class approach to model the household decision over whether to sign up to a PES programme. Allowing for variation in the parameters of the decision process, we find significant differences between households with good access to markets and those facing market imperfections.

The Value of Forest Ecosystem Services to Developing Economies

This paper assesses the scale of the potential co-benefits for residents of developing countries of protecting forest ecosystems in order to mitigate climate change. The objective is to improve understanding among development practitioners of the ways in which services provided by forest ecosystems can also make important contributions to achieving development objectives such as improvements to health and safety, and maintenance of food and energy security. This is achieved by reviewing empirical studies that estimate the value of specific ecosystem services derived from forests in order to evaluate and describe the current state of knowledge on how the wellbeing of local people is likely to be affected by the introduction of global mechanisms for avoided deforestation in developing countries. There are four main ways in which wellbeing can be affected: 1) forests provide soil protection and water regulation services, which in turn reduce waterborne diseases, maintain irrigation water supply, and mitigate risks of natural disaster; 2) forests provide habitat for birds, fish, mammals and insects that affect human health and income generation opportunities; 3) clearing forest through use of fire can lead to respiratory illness and property damage, particularly if the fires spread accidentally; and 4) tropical forests are particularly high in biodiversity, making them important locally as well as globally as a potential source of genetic material for new crop varieties and pharmaceuticals. Evidence on the size of these benefits suggests that while they are highly variable, households in or near forests and poor households benefit most from forest ecosystem services.

The Reliability of Retrospective Data on Asset Ownership as a Measure of Past Household Wealth

Asset ownership is frequently used to assess the welfare status of households in rural areas of developing countries. Researchers often want to know the prior status of households or how that status has changed over time. In a case study in the Brazilian Amazon, we compare recall data with contemporary reports on assets from a panel survey. We consider multiple dimensions of the consistency of retrospective and contemporary data and seek to identify characteristics that lead to more accurate recall. We find that although retrospective data provide some information on past assets owned by households, they do not provide a highly accurate measure of either individual asset ownership or counts of types of assets owned. Consistent with previous studies, we find that items with greater salience are recalled more accurately. We also find that wealthier households exhibit upward bias when recalling assets owned in a previous period.

Have the Key Priority Forestry Programs Really Impacted on China's Rural Household Income

We use a large unique household panel data set spanning 16 years to estimate the impacts of three major Chinese forest conservation and reforestation programs on household incomes. The programs are the most significant of China’s Key Priority Forestry Programs, namely the Sloping Land Conversion Program (the SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (the NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (the DCBT). Cluster effects with county and environment factors have been estimated by using year dummy variables. Fixed model with cluster effects has been used. In addition to estimating the total impacts of the programs, individually and in combination, we disaggregate the effects by income source, stage of policy implementation, and duration of participation. We find minimal effects on total incomes from the programs overall, which are quiet different with other research empirical results, but the more detailed results show that the initial stages of the programs, and the early years of participation had negative or neutral effects on land-based incomes, while in more recent years, impacts have improved, and in some cases become positive.