Katsuhiro Akazawa

Decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks

This paper aims at developing a methodology of decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks arising with low probability for which the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) is inadequate. It is shown that the value function under risk is a useful model for evaluating public risks of extreme events that influence numerous people enormously or the environment badly with low probability.

A decision maker friendly method of extracting preference information for preference function modeling

Deals with a method of extracting the preference information of a decision maker (DM) for preference function modeling (PFM), as proposed by J. Barzilai (1997, 1998). We suggest a method of asking questions which are easy for a DM to answer. In this method, we propose a method based on a rating scale to decompose each criterion into multiple indexes. Then, for each alternative, questions with selective choices are asked to the DM with respect to each index, as a questionnaire. This is easy for the DM to answer, since questionnaires with selective choices have been widely used in many research areas of social science. Decomposition of each criterion into multiple indexes descends from the abstract level of the criterion to the concrete level of the indexes. In this way, the DM can get a concrete picture of the concerned criterion in terms of the indexes based on his/her past experiences. To obtain multi-criteria measurements, we need to find the weight for each criterion. To evaluate the ratio of two weights, we evaluate the marginal rate of substitution between each pair of criteria by using questionnaires with selective choices. Finally, we construct a preference function by using a one-dimensional scale of each criterion and the weight for each criterion. A concrete example of a preference function model for choosing a DMs place of residence is included in order to show the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.

MODELING AND EVALUATION OF KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION FROM ECONOMICS VIEWPOINT — Influence Analysis of USA for not Ratifying the Protocol —

Abstract In this paper we attempt to evaluate the influence of the decision of President Bush in March 2001 not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. For this purpose we first build the evaluation model to analyze the influence to the other major developed countries. Then, we simulate some scenarios and analyze the competitiveness and profit of these countries in the international market. As the results it is found that the international emissions trading included in the Kyoto mechanisms is an effective means to achieve the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the influence of the United States for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol to the other major developed countries is small from economics point of view under the international emissions trading. However, the influence to the developing countries is still to be investigated.

Nonlinear Model of Evaluating the Economic Policies for Global Warming Issue Taking into Account the Competitiveness in International Market

Abstract In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the economic policies such as carbon tax and emissions trading from the international competitiveness point of view. For this purpose, we make a nonlinear model of evaluating carbon tax in consideration of competitiveness in international market. By using this model, we analyze one carbon tax scenario and two international emissions trading scenarios. As results of analysis, we have obtained two conclusions. First, introduction of carbon tax for Japan is possible so long as countermeasures of government of Japan against gap in efficiency of CO2 emissions between sectors are devised. Secondly, nonparticipation in international emissions trading is invalid.

Modeling Decision Analysis for Mitigating Natural Disaster Risks

In this paper, we show that a value function under risk is useful to model low probability and high consequence damage events like an earthquake for which expected utility theory is inadequate. Firstly, we assume alternatives to improve buildings, some scenarios of earthquakes, costs to improve buildings, probability of death and injury and cost of restoring buildings damage for each scenario. Then, we show that the value function under risk is an appropriate approach to model and analyze decision making process with low probability and high consequence events.

Systems analysis of the impact of environmental tax on competitiveness in international market

We attempt to evaluate the impact of environmental tax on competitiveness. For this purpose, we use an international input-output table as the economic system and make an environmental tax model. To make the model, we use a primal problem and its dual in terms of linear programming. To evaluate the direct and indirect effects, we make a model which is based on input-output analysis. In particular we try to adopt price-competitiveness as the indicator of competitiveness, because competitiveness can be strongly influenced by the price-up and it can be measured quantitatively. In an actual international market, competitiveness is also influenced by wages and exchange rates. However it is difficult to measure the changes in wages and exchange rates because of the existence of the tax. Therefore we assume that wages and exchange rates are constant. We show a numerical example consisting of available data and we evaluate the change of competitiveness between Japan and some major countries.