Kazuhiro Misumi

Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

AbstractThe authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated.The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature....

How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions

Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.

Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially.

Status of 137Cs contamination in marine biota along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan derived from a dynamic biological model two years simulation following the Fukushima accident

Radiocesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) released into the Fukushima coastal environment was transferred to marine biota inhabiting the Pacific Ocean coastal waters of eastern Japan. Though the levels in most of the edible marine species decreased overtime, radiocesium concentrations in some fishes were still remained higher than the Japanese regulatory limit for seafood products. In this study, a dynamic food chain transfer model was applied to reconstruct (137)Cs levels in olive flounder by adopting the radiocesium concentrations in small demersal fish which constitute an important fraction of the diet of the olive flounder particularly inhabiting area near Fukushima. In addition, (137)Cs levels in slime flounder were also simulated using reported radiocesium concentrations in some prey organisms. The simulated results from Onahama on the southern border of the Fukushima coastline, and at Choshi the southernmost point where the contaminated water mass was transported by the Oyashio current, were assessed in order to identify what can be explained from present information, and what remains to be clarified three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (1FNPP) accident. As a result, the observed (137)Cs concentrations in planktivorous fish and their predator fish could be explained by the theoretically-derived simulated levels. On the other hand, the slow (137)Cs depuration in slime flounder can be attributed to uptake from unknown sources for which the uptake fluxes were of a similar magnitude as the excretion fluxes. Since the reported (137)Cs concentrations in benthic invertebrates off Onahama were higher than the simulated values, radiocesium transfer from these benthic detritivorous invertebrates to slime flounder via ingestion was suggested as a cause for the observed slow depuration of (137)Cs in demersal fish off southern Fukushima. Furthermore, the slower depuration in the demersal fish likely required an additional source of (137)Cs, i.e. contaminated detritus or sediment which was entrained with the prey during the active sediment feeding of this fish species.

Estimation of the radiation dose equivalent for the hypothetical submergence of a sea-transport package of low-level radioactive waste

ABSTRACT Japanese Electric Power Utilities plans to transport low-level radioactive waste (LLW) in CSD-C (36 canisters) and CSD-B packages (10 canisters) by sea from France to Japan. In this study, we carried out assessments of the dose to the public from a hypothetical release of radioactive materials from submerged LLW packages into the sea. The estimated dose equivalents from the CSD-C and CSD-B packages were 2.8 × 10−8 and 7.9 × 10−9 mSv year−1, respectively, for the near shore case. For the deep sea case, the estimated dose equivalents were 8.6 × 10−8 and 5.8 × 10−8 mSv year−1, respectively. These estimated results were much smaller than those found in a previous study of Type-B packages (spent fuel, high level waste, and mixed oxide fuel) and the ICRP recommendation (1 mSv year−1).