Kazumasa Hanaoka

Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysis

Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.

Spatial microsimulation modelling for retail market analysis at the small-area level

The purpose of this study is to construct a spatial microsimulation model known as the spatial microsimulation approach for retail market analysis (SMARMA) in order to analyse the retail market at the small-area level in Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture, Japan. In this study, we focus on examining the following issues. First, we attempt to create synthetic household microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey using both reweighting and imputation approaches. Second, we present the manner in which the results of the spatial microsimulation model are used for market analysis with regard to grocery stores. Market shares, turnover ranking and detailed consumer characteristics for selected stores are examined. In particular, the spatial distributions of households and their shopping behaviour are discussed in order to identify variations in consumer characteristics. As a result, this study shows that a spatial microsimulation model can generate detailed and reliable synthetic microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey. Besides, it is confirmed that this model is a highly relevant approach for implementing market analysis at the small-area level.

New insights on relationships between street crimes and ambient population: Use of hourly population data estimated from mobile phone users locations

The purpose of this research is to examine relationships between occurrences of snatch-and-run offences and hourly population estimated from mobile phone users’ locations, with particular focus on differences between daytime and nighttime. Using an hourly population dataset allows us to count the so-called ‘ambient population’ by hour of day to accurately quantify the influence of such population as capable guardians and suitable targets in a framework of routine activity theory. Our major findings based on logistic regression models are that (1) the effects of ambient population and (2) its temporal change are large, and the effects differ between daytime and nighttime. During the daytime, snatch-and-run offences are less likely to occur in areas where hourly population density is expect to increase, possibly because offenders are highly sensitive to the risk of being detected by other people. On the other hand, offences at night occur even in relatively crowded areas, and they are only weakly related to population change. In addition, our study found that (3) snatch-and-run offences are more likely to occur in or near local town centres and (4) socially vulnerable neighbourhoods are only targeted at night. We attempted to explain this in terms of offenders’ characteristics and motivations depending on time of day.

Income Inequalities in Japan and the UK: A Comparative Study of Two Island Economies

This article builds on recent work entitled The Spirit Level by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett suggesting that Japan is one of the most harmonious affluent countries in the world, whereas the United Kingdom (UK) is one of the most unequal and hence disharmonious. In particular, the article revisits The Spirit Level evidence according to which Japan is a more equitable society in terms of income than any other industrialised country, but especially contrasts with a country such as the UK. The article provides a brief review of appropriate data in both Japan and the UK that could be used for the analysis of income inequality and identifies the best available microdata that would be most suitable for this purpose: the Japanese National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure microdata and the UK Family Resources Survey and Household Below Average Income survey microdata. It then presents a comparative analysis of income inequality measures in Japan and the UK and a discussion of the income distribution in both countries based on these data sets over the past twenty years. The findings suggest that the UK is much more unequal than Japan in terms of income distribution.

Happiness, Social Cohesion and Income Inequalities in Britain and Japan

The above quotation is from the popular book entitled “The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better”. This text describes the relationship between income distribution and well-being in affluent countries suggesting it is mediated through psychosocial pathways shaping the impacts of economic structure upon social relationships. In this model lower income inequality is seen to result in societies with more cohesion, greater trust and cooperation and lower social stress. Wilkinson and Pickett (2009) present evidence suggesting that social and economic policies affecting the income distribution of a society can make a huge difference to the psychosocial well-being of the whole populations of this society. For instance, according to the evidence used in this book if income inequality were halved in the UK then the murder rates in the country and obesity rates would also halve, mental illness could be reduced by two thirds, imprisonment could reduce by 80 %, teen births could reduce by 80 % and levels of trust could increase by 85 % (The Equality Trust 2011).