Kazuo Dan

Distribution of seismic hazard in Japan based on an empirical extreme value distribution

Abstract A probabilistic model of seismic hazard intensity in Japan is proposed which is based on an empirical extreme value distribution with lower and upper bound limits. There have been quite a few seismic hazard studies in recent years, but most of them discuss only the expectancy in certain recurrence intervals but not the coefficient of variation nor the probability distribution. This paper utilizes a fairly long-term Japanese earthquake catalogue to determine realistic upper bound limits for the extreme value distribution and uses a recent 300-year catalogue to establish the seismic hazard probability distribution which is presented in terms of contour maps for the mean and c.o.v. of 50-year maximum peak velocity at bedrock.