Kefyalew Addis Alene

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016

The last 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs may reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.Summary Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2–73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5–20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00–8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006–16—age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years and a 210% (208–212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Non-Adherence to Anti-Tuberculosis Treatment and Determinant Factors among Patients with Tuberculosis in Northwest Ethiopia

Background Non-adherence to anti tuberculosis treatment is one of the crucial challenges in improving tuberculosis cure-rates and reducing further healthcare costs. The poor adherence to anti-tuberculosis treatment among patients with tuberculosis is a major problem in Ethiopia. Hence, this study assessed level of non-adherence to anti-tuberculosis therapy and associated factors among patients with tuberculosis in northwest Ethiopia. Methods An institution based cross-sectional survey was conducted among tuberculosis patients who were following anti-tuberculosis treatment in North Gondar zone from February 20 – March 30, 2013. Data were collected by trained data collectors using a structured and pre-tested questionnaire. Data were entered to EPI INFO version 3.5.3 and analyzed using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 20. Multiple logistic regressions were fitted to identify associations and to control potential confounding variables. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval was calculated and p-values<0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results A total of 280 tuberculosis patients were interviewed; 55.7% were males and nearly three quarters (72.5%) were urban dwellers. The overall non-adherence for the last one month and the last four days before the survey were 10% and 13.6% respectively. Non-adherence was high if the patients had forgetfulness (AOR 7.04, 95% CI 1.40–35.13), is on the continuation phase of chemotherapy (AOR: 6.95, 95% CI 1.81–26.73), had symptoms of tuberculosis during the interview (AOR: 4.29, 95% CI 1.53–12.03), and had co-infection with HIV (AOR: 4.06, 95% CI 1.70–9.70). Conclusions Non-adherence to anti-tuberculosis treatment was high. Forgetfulness, being in the continuation phases of chemotherapy, having symptoms of tuberculosis during the interview, and co-infected with HIV were significantly associated with non-adherence to anti-tuberculosis therapy. Special attention on adherence counseling should be given to symptomatic patients, TB/HIV co-infected patients, and those in the continuation phase of the tuberculosis therapy.

Hand hygiene compliance and associated factors among health care providers in Gondar University Hospital, Gondar, North West Ethiopia

BackgroundHealth care associated infections are more predominant in developing countries where Hand hygiene compliance is associated with so many factors. However, these factors have not been studied so far in the study area. This study sought to determine Hand hygiene compliance and associated factors among health care providers.MethodsInstitution based cross-sectional study was conducted from April to May, 2013 in Gondar University Hospital. Stratified sampling technique was used to select 405 health care providers. Standardized questionnaire and world health organization observational checklist was used to collect the data. Data was entered and analyzed by using SPSS version 20. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model was used to summarize the result.ResultsA total of 405 study participants were interviewed and observed with a response rate of 96.4%. Good Hand hygiene compliance of healthcare providers was found to be 16.5%. Having knowledge about hand hygiene compliance, (AOR = 3.80, 95% CI 1.60, 8.97), getting training (AOR = 2.60, 95% Cl 1.21, 5.62), the presence of individual towel/tissue paper (AOR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.03, 3.56) presence of alcohol based hand rub for Hand hygiene compliance (AOR = 6.58, 95% CI 2.67, 16.22) and knew the presence of infection prevention committees (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.23, 5.37) were significantly associated with hand hygiene compliance.ConclusionsHand hygiene compliance among health care providers in Gondar University Hospital was found to be low. It is better to give training on Hand hygiene compliance and provide Alcohol based hand rub and individual towel or tissue paper for hand hygiene compliance.

Prevalence of Anemia and Associated Factors among Pregnant Women in an Urban Area of Eastern Ethiopia

This research work presents the magnitude of anemia and its determinant factors among pregnant women. As far as this research is done in the eastern part of Ethiopia, where there is a different cultural issue related to pregnancy and dietary habit, it will help the researchers to know the problem in different parts of the country.This research work presents the magnitude of anemia and its determinant factors among pregnant women. As far as this research is done in the eastern part of Ethiopia, where there is a different cultural issue related to pregnancy and dietary habit, it will help the researchers to know the problem in different parts of the country.

Intent to stay in the nursing profession and associated factors among nurses working in Amhara Regional State Referral Hospitals, Ethiopia

BackgroundNurses are essential to the health care delivery system especially to meet the health related millennium development goals. However, despite the significant shortage of nurses in Ethiopia, research in the country regarding nurses’ intent to stay in their profession is lacking. This study assessed intent to stay in the nursing profession and associated factors among nurses working in referral hospitals, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.MethodsInstitution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 389 nurses from April 8 to May 5, 2013. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select the study participants from five referral hospitals. Data were collected using pretested and structured self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were conducted to summarize the sample characteristics. Backward stepwise logistic regression model was fitted and adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was calculated to identify associated factors.ResultsThe proportion of nurses who reported intent to stay in the nursing profession was 39.8%. Age 40 to 49 (AOR [95% CI] 4.5 [1.6-12.8]), being married (AOR [95% CI] 2.0 [1.0-3.8]), having a bachelor degree in nursing (AOR [95% CI] 2.2 [1.2-4.1]), satisfaction with: autonomy and professional opportunities (AOR [95% CI] 2.6 [1.2-5.9]), scheduling (AOR [95% CI] 3.4 [1.6-7.5]), and pay and benefits (AOR [95% CI] 8.8 [4.5-17.1]); high continuance commitment (AOR [95% CI] 2.4 [1.3-4.8]) and high normative commitment (AOR [95% CI] 3.7 [1.9-7.2]) were the significant predictors of intent to stay in the nursing profession.ConclusionsIntent to stay in the nursing profession was low among nurses working in Amhara Regional State referral hospitals. Interventions aimed at increasing the professional autonomy of nurses and revising the current salary and other duty payments are vital.

Incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among adult people living with human immunodeficiency virus at the University of Gondar Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is the leading killer of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Many of these deaths occur in developing countries. This study aimed at determining the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among PLHIV.MethodsA five year retrospective follow up study was conducted among adult PLHIV. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.ResultsA total of 470 patients were followed and produced 1724.13 Person-Years (PY) of observation, and 136 new TB cases occurred during the follow up period. The overall incidence density of TB was 7.88 per 100 PY. It was high (95.9/100PY) in the first year of enrolment. The cumulative proportion of TB- free survivals was 79% and 67% at the end of the first and fifth years, respectively. Baseline WHO clinical stage III (AHR = 2.88, 95% CI = 1.53-5.43), WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 3.82, 95% CI = 1.86-7.85), CD4 count <50 cell/ul (AHR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.28-3.53) and ambulatory or bed ridden functional status (AHR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.13-2.38) were predictors of time to TB occurrence.ConclusionsTB incidence rate among PLHIV, especially in the first year of enrollment was high. Advanced WHO clinical stage, limited functional status, and low CD4 count (<50 cell cell/ul) were found to be the independent predictors of TB occurrence. Early care seeking and initiation of HAART to improve the CD4 count and functional status are important to reduce the risk of TB infection.

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis in north‐west Ethiopia

Multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis (MDR‐TB) is an emerging public health problem in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess MDR‐TB treatment outcomes and determine predictors of poor treatment outcomes in north‐west Ethiopia.

Knowledge of pregnant women on mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Meket District Northeast Ethiopia.

Knowledge of pregnant women on the three periods of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV has implication for child HIV acquisition. This study aims to assess the knowledge of pregnant women on mother-to-child transmission of HIV and to identify associated factors in Meket district, northeast Ethiopia. Logistic regression models were fitted to identify associated factors. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to determine the presence and strength of association. About one-fifth (19%) of women were knowledgeable on mother-to-child transmission of HIV (95% CI: 15.5%, 22.4%). Being urban resident (AOR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.48, 4.87), having primary education (AOR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.03, 5.60), reporting receiving information on HIV from health care providers (AOR: 3.24, 95% CI: 1.53, 6.83), having discussion with partner about mother-to-child transmission of HIV (AOR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.59, 4.39), and attending antenatal care (AOR: 5.80, 95% CI: 2.63, 12.77) were positively associated with increased maternal knowledge of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Knowledge of mother-to-child transmission of HIV among pregnant women was low. Providing information, especially for rural women and their partners, is highly recommended.

Visceral leishmaniasis treatment outcome and its determinants in northwest Ethiopia

OBJECTIVES Poor treatment outcomes of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are responsible for the high mortality rate of this condition in resource-limited settings such as Ethiopia. This study aimed to identify the proportion of poor VL treatment outcomes in northwest Ethiopia and to evaluate the determinants associated with poor outcomes. METHODS A hospital-based retrospective study was conducted among 595 VL patients who were admitted to Kahsay Abera Hospital in northwest Ethiopia from October 2010 to April 2013. Data were entered into Epi Info version 7.0 and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify the determinants of VL treatment outcomes. Adjusted odds ratio (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used, and p-values <0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. RESULTS The proportion of poor treatment outcomes was 23.7%. Late diagnosis (≥29 days) (aOR, 4.34; 95% CI, 2.22 to 8.46), severe illness at admission (inability to walk) (aOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.40) and coinfection with VL and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (aOR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.40 to 5.20) were found to be determinants of poor VL treatment outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Poor treatment outcomes, such as death, treatment failure, and non-adherence, were found to be common. Special attention must be paid to severely ill and VL/HIV-coinfected patients. To improve VL treatment outcomes, the early diagnosis and treatment of VL patients is recommended.

Spatial patterns of multidrug resistant tuberculosis and relationships to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia

Background Understanding the geographical distribution of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in high TB burden countries such as Ethiopia is crucial for effective control of TB epidemics in these countries, and thus globally. We present the first spatial analysis of multidrug resistant tuberculosis, and its relationship to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia. Methods An ecological study was conducted using data on patients diagnosed with MDR-TB at the University of Gondar Hospital MDR-TB treatment centre, for the period 2010 to 2015. District level population data were extracted from the Ethiopia National and Regional Census Report. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Moran’s I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach with Gibbs sampling, in WinBUGS. Results A total of 264 MDR-TB patients were included in the analysis. The overall crude incidence rate of MDR-TB for the six-year period was 3.0 cases per 100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was observed in Metema (21 cases per 100,000 population) and Humera (18 cases per 100,000 population) districts; whereas nine districts had zero cases. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was observed in districts located in the Ethiopia-Sudan and Ethiopia-Eritrea border regions, where large numbers of seasonal migrants live. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was positively associated with urbanization (RR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04) and the percentage of men (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.99) in the districts; after accounting for these factors there was no residual spatial clustering. Conclusion Spatial clustering of MDR-TB, fully explained by demographic factors (urbanization and percent male), was detected in the border regions of northwest Ethiopia, in locations where seasonal migrants live and work. Cross-border initiatives including options for mobile TB treatment and follow up are important for the effective control of MDR-TB in the region.