Keith Bartholomew

Hedonic Price Effects of Pedestrian- and Transit-Oriented Development

Recent consumer surveys and demographic analyses have indicated a growing market for pedestrian- and transit-designed development. Theoretically, this market shift should be reflected in the price people are willing to pay for those styles of development. This article traces the literature that uses hedonic price methods for testing this hypothesis, either by assessing pedestrian/transit-design development holistically or by evaluating its component parts. The literature confirms that the market shift is, indeed, being capitalized into real estate prices and demonstrates that the amenity-based elements of transit-designed development play an important positive role in urban land markets, independent of the accessibility benefits provided by transit.

Land Use–Transportation Scenarios and Future Vehicle Travel and Land Consumption: A Meta-Analysis

Problem: Since the late 1980s, U.S. metropolitan regions have increasingly engaged in a style of land use–transportation scenario planning that merges techniques borrowed from military and business strategic planning with long-range transportation systems planning and project-level alternatives analysis. Aside from occasional anecdotal descriptions, the effectiveness of such approaches in generating compact growth plans has not been evaluated comprehensively. Purpose: We analyzed a wide range of scenario planning studies to determine how far compact growth scenarios are predicted to reduce vehicular travel below existing trends. Methods: Using hierarchical modeling, we developed a regional vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) model based on 85 scenarios in 23 planning studies from 18 metropolitan areas. Results and conclusions: Using coefficients from this model, we conservatively estimate that compact growth scenarios reduce VMT in 2050 by 17% below scenarios assuming a continuation of existing trends. Takeaway for practice: Existing transportation models remain largely insensitive to changes in land use and transportation policy. This must change for scenario planning to achieve its full potential. In the future, scenario planning should incorporate the best current knowledge about how global economic and environmental trends will affect regions. Research support: Collection of the primary data used in this article was funded in part by the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, under Cooperative Agreement No. DTFH61-03-H-00134. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Federal Highway Administration.

Urban development and climate change

With growing worldwide concern about global climate change, this article asks two critical questions: What reduction in vehicle‐miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the USA with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?; and What reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would accompany such a reduction in VMT? Based on four different planning literatures, the answer to the first question appears to be a 20–40% reduction in VMT for each increment of new development. The answer to the second question is a 7–10% reduction in total transport carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050 under a plausible set of assumptions.

Response to Special Report 298 Driving and the built environment: the effects of compact development on motorized travel, energy use, and CO2 emissions

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently issued the report Driving and the built environment: the effects of compact development on motorized travel, energy use, and CO2 emissions. This repo...

THE EVOLUTION OF AMERICAN NONGOVERNMENTAL LAND USE PLANNING ORGANIZATIONS

Abstract Chester Arnolds oil painting The Onerous Developments of April 15, 1994 can be read as a metaphor for the kinds of land use mishaps that watchdog organizations strive to prevent. With most of the nearby trees cut down, the path from the cabins front door no longer leading anywhere, and the landscape literally falling out from under foot, the figure peering over the edge may be contemplating why no one prevented him from developing in such an unstable area. And to make matters worse, taxes are due. The artist, who lives and works in the San Francisco Bay area, has been examining the tenuous relationship between people and their environment in large-scale works in oil for the past two decades. Thanks to the Elizabeth Leach Gallery in Portland, Oregon, for their help in securing use of this image. Nongovernmental land use planning organizations have emerged and evolved in the United States throughout the last few decades of the 20th century to assume a variety of roles in public planning processes...

Comparing Land Use Forecasting Methods Expert Panel Versus Spatial Interaction Model

Problem: Legal requirements and good planning practice dictate that land development induced by major highway investments be forecasted. Two forecasting methods, the first qualitative and based on expert judgment and the second quantitative and based on formal spatial interaction models, are often presented as equivalent. Purpose: We aim to extract lessons about the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods from a case study of a controversial highway, the Intercounty Connector (ICC), in the suburbs north of Washington, DC. Methods: We compare forecasts of induced development obtained using both methods and judge their reasonableness against the empirical literature. Results and conclusions: The two methods gave dramatically different results. The subjective judgment of experts predicted small impacts, on average, compared to a simple spatial interaction model. Also, subjectively forecasted impacts were limited to lands near the new facility, while modeled impacts rippled out across a much larger area. The subjective method seemed to give too little weight to accessibility effects and too much to zoning constraints, while a simple spatial interaction model seemed to do the opposite. Takeaway for practice: Where time, budget, or data limitations preclude the development of state-of-the-art integrated land use and transportation models, we conclude based on this case study that the best approach is to combine simple models and expert judgment. Expert panels can be used to check model inputs against local knowledge and to adjust outputs in light of factors otherwise unaccounted for. Conversely, model outputs can be used to check expert opinion for inconsistency with known land use–transportation relationships. Research support: None.

Accessibility planning in American metropolitan areas: Are we there yet?:

Transportation-planning researchers have long argued that the end goal of a transportation system is increasing accessibility, or opportunities for individuals to meet their daily needs, but that US practice tends to focus on increasing mobility, or opportunities to travel farther and faster. This study finds evidence that the gap between theory and practice may be closing when it comes to accessibility, but that significant barriers still exist to the wider adoption of the accessibility paradigm among metropolitan planning organisations, the main entities responsible for regional transportation planning in the USA. We measure this gap by creating an accessibility index based on content analysis of a nationally representative sample of 42 US regional transportation plans (RTPs). We then use regression-tree analysis to determine the characteristics of metropolitan areas that are most likely to employ accessibility concepts. Finally, we identify barriers to a wider adoption of the accessibility paradigm. Most RTPs include accessibility-related goals, but few define the term or use accessibility-oriented performance measures. The lack of clarity on accessibility leaves vehicle speed as the fundamental criterion for success in most plans. Our analysis finds that MPOs serving large regions with high per capita income are the most likely to produce plans that focus on accessibility. We argue that such places produce more accessibility-oriented RTPs because they have greater planning capacity and recommend changes to federal planning guidelines that could speed the adoption of the accessibility paradigm in RTPs.

Smart Growth and Climate Change: Regional Development, Infrastructure and Adaptation

The title of this edited compilation catches the eye. With transportation sources responsible for one-third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and residential and commercial space heating, cooling, and lighting responsible for another third, what could be more compelling, at least from a planner’s perspective, than to address the connections between the built environment and climate? As identified in its introduction, bringing together these topics, and their heretofore disparate research strands, is the book’s primary purpose. Like most ambitious initial efforts, however, this volume is strong on ideas but lacking on coherence. Edited volumes are always a challenge when it comes to developing an integrated line of inquiry or argument, as each chapter tends to stand in its own universe. Nevertheless, as a starting point, it is noteworthy for its intention. The chapters in Smart Growth and Climate Change focus more on climate change than smart growth. Excluding the introductory and concluding chapters, 7 of the book’s remaining 13 chapters discuss the possible impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, including regional development, oil transportation infrastructure, rainfall and storm drainage, flood risk, energy demand, heat island formation, public health, and heat-related mortality. Each one of these subjects is addressed in an isolated but reasonably thorough fashion, providing an assessment of current literature, analysis of new data, and an outline of possible next research steps. Some of these topics are focused on a specific system or geographic region, such as McBeath’s treatment of possible impacts to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and Burian’s comprehensive assessment of the urbanization effects on rainfall in Houston. Other subjects are treated more broadly, such as Stone’s analysis of urban heat island formation, which utilizes data from many metropolitan areas. The book’s treatment of smart growth is considerably narrower, with only three chapters addressing the topic in some fashion. Womersley attempts to show that smart growth has little potential of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. His qualitative analysis suffers from a narrow definition of smart growth, focusing on property transfer programs like transfer of development rights, and an anecdotal approach to data. He concludes that smart growth cannot reduce emissions because it does not, in most cases, replace older more sprawling development; for example, when occupants of houses in sprawling areas move to smart growth neighborhoods, those houses will be occupied by new residents who will drive just as much as the former residents. While he is correct that new smart growth might lead to increases in overall emissions, his argument proves too much. Any new development, smart or otherwise, that adds to the occupied built environment is likely to lead to additional emissions. Because America’s population is continuing to grow and hence will continue to require additional housing stock, the proper question is whether smart growth promises lower emissions compared to the same increment built under a sprawl paradigm. Womersley does not attempt to answer this question. Clifton and Burnier provide a more complete treatment of smart growth concepts, delivering a handy survey of much of the recent literature. However, after outlining a clear record of association between smart growth and reduced travel demand, they inexplicably declare that “the ability of land use strategies to curb automobile travel is mixed at best” (p. 285). Their attempt to connect smart growth to climate change appears to be an afterthought added at the end of the chapter. Smart Growth and Climate Change presents some interesting chapters with well-supported research on the possible impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. The topics, however, are not well-integrated with each other and do not attempt to address smart growth issues. The few chapters focused on smart growth, while attempting to address climate change issues, do so superficially with little convincing evidence. It seems clear that the nature of the built environment can substantially influence the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent climate change. The nature of that connection has yet to be fully investigated, but the topic has rich research potential. Smart Growth and Climate Change highlights just how important this research will be, even if the book does not quite deliver on the topic.