Keith Bennett

Phylogeographic insights into cryptic glacial refugia

The glacial episodes of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago-present) were a major factor in shaping the present-day distributions of extant flora and fauna, with expansions and contractions of the ice sheets rendering large areas uninhabitable for most species. Fossil records suggest that many species survived glacial maxima by retreating to refugia, usually at lower latitudes. Recently, phylogeographic studies have given support to the existence of previously unknown, or cryptic, refugia. Here we summarise many of these insights into the glacial histories of species in cryptic refugia gained through phylogeographic approaches. Understanding such refugia might be important as the Earth heads into another period of climate change, in terms of predicting the effects on species distribution and survival.

QUATERNARY REFUGIA OF NORTH EUROPEAN TREES

An attempt is made to investigate the nature of cold-stage distributions for those forest trees which today extend to northem Europe. Evidence is taken from the pollen record of the present and earlier interglacials, a model of past climate, modem tree distributions, and physi- ography of southem Europe. The trees occupied mid- altitude sites in the mountains of southem Europe, espe- cially in the westem Balkans and Italy during the last cold stage. These areas would have had a suitable climate, and it is argued that the trees could easily have survived there at densities low enough to escape detection in the pollen record. Most taxa which spread north at the beginning of an interglacial become extinct in the northern part of their ranges, and do not retreat south at the end of the interglacial. The survival of these trees in southern Europe through a warm stage may be at least as important for long-term Qua- ternary survival in Europe as survival during a cold stage.

Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia

Tree Refugia Ideas of how and when boreal plants spread to the formerly glaciated parts of the world following the retreat of the glaciers 9000 years ago are long debated. Models of the postglacial spread of boreal plants argue for dispersal from southern refugia; however, Parducci et al. (p. 1083) have shown that both spruce and pine were present in small ice-free regions of Scandinavia much earlier than thought. DNA haplotyping confirmed that a remnant mitochondrial type of spruce, once unique to Scandinavia, now lives alongside the more common spruce originating from Eastern Europe. Evidence from lake cores collected from central and northern Norway indicated the survival of conifers as early as 22,000 years before the present, when apart from ice-free pockets, most of Scandinavia was covered by ice. DNA from modern and ancient spruce and pine indicate that both survived in ice-free areas during the last glaciations. It is commonly believed that trees were absent in Scandinavia during the last glaciation and first recolonized the Scandinavian Peninsula with the retreat of its ice sheet some 9000 years ago. Here, we show the presence of a rare mitochondrial DNA haplotype of spruce that appears unique to Scandinavia and with its highest frequency to the west—an area believed to sustain ice-free refugia during most of the last ice age. We further show the survival of DNA from this haplotype in lake sediments and pollen of Trøndelag in central Norway dating back ~10,300 years and chloroplast DNA of pine and spruce in lake sediments adjacent to the ice-free Andøya refugium in northwestern Norway as early as ~22,000 and 17,700 years ago, respectively. Our findings imply that conifer trees survived in ice-free refugia of Scandinavia during the last glaciation, challenging current views on survival and spread of trees as a response to climate changes.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earths history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

Crossing forest thresholds: inertia and collapse in a Holocene sequence from south-central Spain

A Holocene palaeoecological sequence from Villaverde, south-central Spain, is presented. The pollen stratigraphy is used to infer past vegetation changes within a catchment area that represents the boundary between semi-arid, plateau and mountain vegetation. From c. 9700-7530 cal. yr BP, Pinus is dominant, probably as a result of a combination of a relatively dry climate and natural fire disturbance. From c. 7530-5900 cal. yr BP, moderate invasion by Quercus appears to be a migrational response following increased moisture and temperature, but in part shaped by competitive adjustments. From c. 5900-5000 cal. yr BP, the pine forests are replaced by deciduous-Quercus forests with an important contribution from Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus and Alnus. Mediterranean-type forests spread from c. 5000 to 1920 cal. yr BP coincident with expansions of Artemisia, Juniperus and other xerophytes. From c. 1920-1160 cal. yr BP, Pinus becomes dominant after a disturbance- mediated invasion of the oak forests. Human impact upon the regional landscape was negligible during the Neolithic, and limited in the Bronze and Iron Ages. Local deforestation and the expansion of agro-pastoral activities occur after c. 1600 cal. yr BP.

Looking forward through the past : identification of 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology

Summary 1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance. 2. To date there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology, which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on timescales from decades to millions of years. 3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Accepted Article 4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection. 5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human–environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation, and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long timescales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology. 6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes, and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management. 7. Synthesis Palaeoecology is a vibrant and thriving discipline and these 50 priority questions highlight its potential for addressing both pure (e.g. ecological and evolutionary, methodological) and applied (e.g. environmental and conservation) issues related to ecological science and global change.

Determining the age of the mid-Holocene Tsuga canadensis (hemlock) decline, eastern North America

Pollen counts and radiocarbon age determinations from 60 sites in eastern North America are used to determine the age of the mid-Holocene T.ugai canadensis decline, and to analyse the errors associated with such age estimation. The age is determined as 4750 14C yr BP with a standard error of the mean of about 50 years. Despite the quantity of data available, large uncertainties in the choice of age-depth model make it impossible to determine a more precise age for this event. It is likely that there are similar problems, or worse, with attempts to determine the age of other Holocene events. Within the limitations of the available data set, the Tsuga canadensis decline was synchronous across the whole of its range.

Ancient DNA from pollen: a genetic record of population history in Scots pine

Assessments of plant population dynamics in space and time have depended on dated records of fossil pollen synthesized on a subcontinental scale. Genetic analyses of extant populations have revealed spatial relationships that are indicative of past spatial dynamics, but lack an explicit timescale. Synthesis of these data requires genetic analyses from abundant dated fossil material, and this has hitherto been lacking. Fossil pollen is the most abundant material with which to fill this data gap. Here we report genetic analyses of fossil pollen retrieved from Holtjärnen postglacial lake sediment in Sweden and show that plastid DNA is recoverable from Scots Pine and Norway spruce pollen grains that are 100 and 10 000 years old. By sequencing clones from two short plastid PCR products and by using multiple controls we show that the ancient sequences were endogenous to the fossil grains. Comparison of ancient sequences and those obtained from an extant population of Scots pine establishes the first genetic link between extant and fossil samples in this species, providing genetic continuity through time. The finding of one common haplotype present in modern, 100‐year old and 10 000‐year old samples suggests that it may have persisted near Holtjärnen throughout the postglacial period. This retrieval of ancient DNA from pollen has major implications for plant palaeoecology in conifer species by allowing direct estimates of population dynamics in space and time.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-first-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refined atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this ‘suck in and smear syndrome’ for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.