Keith Matthews

Deliberative processes for comprehensive evaluation of agroecological models. A review

The use of biophysical models in agroecology has increased in the last few decades for two main reasons: the need to formalize empirical knowledge and the need to disseminate model-based decision support for decision makers (such as farmers, advisors, and policy makers). The first has encouraged the development and use of mathematical models to enhance the efficiency of field research through extrapolation beyond the limits of site, season, and management. The second reflects the increasing need (by scientists, managers, and the public) for simulation experimentation to explore options and consequences, for example, future resource use efficiency (i.e., management in sustainable intensification), impacts of and adaptation to climate change, understanding market and policy responses to shocks initiated at a biophysical level under increasing demand, and limited supply capacity. Production concerns thus dominate most model applications, but there is a notable growing emphasis on environmental, economic, and policy dimensions. Identifying effective methods of assessing model quality and performance has become a challenging but vital imperative, considering the variety of factors influencing model outputs. Understanding the requirements of stakeholders, in respect of model use, logically implies the need for their inclusion in model evaluation methods. We reviewed the use of metrics of model evaluation, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of stakeholders to expand horizons beyond conventional structured, numeric analyses. Two major topics are discussed: (1) the importance of deliberative processes for model evaluation, and (2) the role computer-aided techniques may play to integrate deliberative processes into the evaluation of agroecological models. We point out that (i) the evaluation of agroecological models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (ii) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, (iii) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perception, (iv) questionnaire-based surveys can help understand the challenges posed by the deliberative process, and (v) a benefit can be obtained if model evaluation is conceived in a decisional perspective and evaluation techniques are developed at the same pace with which the models themselves are created and improved. Scientific knowledge hubs are also recognized as critical pillars to advance good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation (including access to dedicated software tools), an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs.

Beyond Crofting: Assessing Change on Scotland's Small-Scale Holdings

Abstract In this paper, we go ‘beyond crofting’ to assess the changes to both croft and non-croft small-scale land management in Scotland from 2000 to 2011, through an analysis of agricultural census statistics. We find that although small-scale holdings (defined as holdings of less than 10u2005ha) occupy a very small percentage of Scotlands agricultural land, they account for 19.6% of Scotlands agricultural labour. Small-scale holdings also play important roles within the commercial poultry and horticulture sectors, and house 35.9% of reported horses. Small-scale land management is increasing throughout Scotland, but with evident regional distinctions. Upland and island holdings (many of which are crofts) have seen substantial reductions in their sheep numbers as part of the wider reduction in agricultural activity associated with 2005 Common Agricultural Policy reforms. In contrast, sheep numbers are growing on small-scale holdings in the lowlands, underpinned by a complex mix of commercial and lifestyle drivers. We highlight that benefits traditionally associated with crofting, such as population retention and rural development, could also be associated with small-scaling holding in general. However, the increase in small-holding and retention of labour in some regions may be evidence of peri-urban gentrification processes, rather than fulfilment of traditional crofting functions in remote areas.

Adaptation, resilience and CAP reform: a comparison of crofts and livestock farms in Scotland

ABSTRACT In this paper, we assess the recent and anticipated changes on Scotland’s livestock-producing crofts, using a representative survey of Scottish farmers undertaken in 2013. We find that crofters are similar to other livestock farmers, both inside and outside of the traditional crofting counties, in terms of age, years of involvement in the holding and percentage of identified successors, but are less likely to own their holdings or to operate them for profit. Crofters reported being more subsidy dependent than other livestock producers, and many appear likely to retreat from crofting in the event of substantive subsidy reductions. However, crofting respondents identified input costs, regulations, commodity prices and climate change as having had greater influence on how they manage their crofts than the 2005 transition to the ‘Single Farm Payment’. Overall, crofters reported making fewer changes than their counterparts in non-crofting counties, but similar levels to those of other livestock farmers within crofting counties, suggesting less ‘room for manoeuvre’ within the remote areas in which most crofts are located. However, there is some evidence that ‘active’ crofts are ‘bouncing forward’ in response to recent challenges, particularly into forestry and agri-tourism, also reporting significantly higher perceived economic prospects.