Keith O. Fuglie

Adoption and Diffusion of Natural-Resource-Conserving Agricultural Technology

A national sample of U.S. farms is used to estimate the long-term trends in adoption and diffusion of conservation tillage, IPM, and soil fertilizer testing, technologies designed to reduce environmental externalities from agriculture. Results from a duration model show that diffusion of these technologies has been relatively slow, with long lags in adoption due to differences in land quality, farm size, farmer education, and regional factors.

Priorities for potato research in developing countries: results of a survey

International institutions such as the International Potato Center (CIP) strive to provide “global public goods” in the form of improved technologies applicable to large regions of the developing world. To identify priorities for potato improvement, CIP conducted a survey of knowledgeable potato scientists in developing countries to elicit their perspectives on the most important constraints facing poor and small-scale potato growers in their countries. Respondents scored productivity or other constraints according to their importance in the region or country where they worked. Mean and weighted mean scores were estimated to provide a group judgment of the most important constraints facing potato farmers in developing countries. The five highest-ranking needs described by the survey respondents are: (1) control of late blight fungal disease (through varietal resistance and crop management); (2) improved genetic material for high and stable yield potential, suitable for consumption (new cultivars and prebreeding); (3) improved supply of quality potato seed (seed systems management and seed production); (4) control of viruses and their vectors (through varietal resistance, seed production and crop management); and (5) control of bacterial wilt (through varietal resistance and crop management). These five needs were ranked high in all or most of the potato-growing regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Exceptions were bacterial wilt control, which was a top-ranked need primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and east and southeast Asia, and virus control, which scored relatively low in Latin America. Priority rankings did not change when survey responses were weighted by potato area and poverty incidence of the country for which respondents reported.ResumenInstituciones internacionales tales como el Centro Internacional de la Papa (CIP) se esfuerzan en proveer ·bienes públicos globales· en forma de tecnologίas mejoradas aplicables a bastas regiones del mundo en desarrollo. Para identificar las prioridades para el mejoramiento de la papa, el CIP realizó una encuesta entre los cientίficos en papa de los paίses en desarrollo para conocer su opinión sobre los problemas más importantes que tienen que encarar los productores de papa pobres y en pequeña escala en sus respectivos países. Los entrevistados señalaron la productividad y otros inconvenientes de acuerdo a su importancia en la región o país. El promedio y peso de las respuestas fueron estimados para proporcionar un grupo de los problemas más importantes a los que tiene que enfrentarse el productor de papa en los países en desarrollo. Los que obtuvieron mayores puntajes de acuerdo a los que respondieron la encuesta son: (1) control de tizón tardío (por medio de resistencia varietal y mane jo del cultivo); (2) material genético mejorado para el rendimiento potencial estable, apropiado para consumo (cultivares nuevos y pre-mejoramiento); (3) abastecimiento de semilla de papa de calidad (manejo de sistemas de semilla y su producción); (4) control de los virus y sus vectores (por medio de resistencia varietal, producción de semilla y manejo del cultivo); y (5) control de la marchitez bacteriana (a través de resistencia varietal y manejo del cultivo). Estos cinco necesidades fueron consideradas principales en todas o la mayoría de las regiones de cultivo de papa en Asia, África y América Latina. La excepción fue el control de la marchitez bacteriana, la cual alcanzó un alto puntaje principalmente en África subSahara y el este y sudeste asiático y el control de virus que alcanzó puntaje bajo en América Latina. El puntaje de prioridades no cambió cuando las respuestas se sopesaron en función de las respuestas por área de papa e incidencia de la pobreza en el país para el cual fueron las respuestas.

Future yield growth in field crops: what evidence exists?

Abstract Crop yields are an important determinant of C input into the soil and ultimately of soil organic carbon (SOC). Models to predict changes in SOC require crop yield and future yield growth information. In this review, yield trends for 11 major crops in the US for the period 1939–1994 are analyzed. Historical data are analyzed to detect evidence of a yield plateau. Yields are extrapolated to the year 2020 based on linear and exponential yield trends estimated in the paper. Forward-looking information on yield gaps, on the biological potential for future yield growth, and socio-economic determinants of yield growth is examined for evidence that yield growth may plateau in the near future. A linear model of yield growth indicates a compound annual rate of growth of between 0.7% and 1.3% per year for major US crops through 2020. Under an exponential model, growth rates could range up to 3% per year. This could lead to substantial increases in SOC if crop residues are retained. Biophysical limits, including those imposed by agronomic and tillage practices, do not appear to prevent rates of growth consistent with the linear model. How socioeconomic forces will affect future growth are subject to greater uncertainty.

Private Agricultural Research

This chapter serves to assess the quantity and impact of private agricultural research in developing countries, alongside the policies which affect that research. To provide context, an outline of the history, size and structure of private research presents data on research expenditures by region, by agency, by crop and by industrial sector. Evidence on research inputs reflects not only the importance of private research, but also the wide national and regional differences in both inputs and implementation of programs. Research output and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection are also strikingly different across time and space, as seen in data on agricultural IPRs by region, by industrial origin, and by crop type. The diffusion of agricultural innovations among farmers is described using data on approvals of genetically modified crops, and on cultivated areas actually planted. Studies of the subsequent impacts of agricultural research show that private sector research is making an important contribution to agricultural productivity growth in some countries and could make an even larger impact if government policies were more favorable. The conclusion provides a review of economic and policy determinants affecting private incentives, and some policy prescriptions to encourage further investment.

New Evidence Points to Robust but Uneven Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture

This article is drawn from Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Fuglie, Wang, and Ball. It is a review of agricultural productivity around the world, with an analysis of prices, population, and productivity over the past 50 years. In developing and transition countries, agricultural productivity growth has been found to be strong over the past 10 years. Developed countries have also experienced robust agricultural total factor productivity growth, though it is now slowing in many countries.

R&D Capital, R&D Spillovers, and Productivity Growth in World Agriculture

Increasing the world’s food supply has depended heavily on increasing agricultural productivity, which in turn depends on investments in research and development (R&D). This article synthesizes findings from more than 40 studies on how R&D investments affect agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in various parts of the world. The article breaks out the relative contributions to TFP growth of R&D by public institutions, private companies, and the CGIAR (a consortium of international agricultural research centers), including international technology spillovers. Major differences emerge between global regions in sources and efficiency of R&D capital. Developed countries appear to have benefitted more from private and international R&D spillovers than developing countries.

Private-Sector Research and Development

Over the past several decades, the private sector has assumed a larger role in research and development (R&D) for food and agriculture. Private companies fund nearly all food processing R&D and perform a growing share of production-oriented R&D for agriculture. The willingness of private companies to invest in agricultural R&D has been influenced by policies toward intellectual property rights, regulations, and antitrust. As private R&D capacity in food and agriculture has grown, so have institutional partnerships for public-private research collaboration. An important implication for public science policy is whether public R&D complements or competes with private R&D. This chapter reviews these developments and the major forces driving them.

R&D Spending, Knowledge Capital, and Agricultural Productivity Growth: A Bayesian Approach

Abstract In this article, we employ Bayesian hierarchical modeling to better capture and communicate the uncertainties surrounding the transformation of U.S. public agricultural research and development (R&D) expenditures to knowledge capital stocks as well as its contribution to the historic growth of U.S. agricultural total factor productivity. Compared to studies based on classical statistics, analytical methods grounded in Bayesian inference explicitly incorporate existing information and permit revision of our knowledge regarding the distribution of the unknown model parameters as additional information becomes available. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is particularly useful in statistically estimating the underlying parameters of the R&D lag weight structure, as well as the R&D knowledge stocks given observed data on agricultural productivity and R&D expenditures. Our results show a significant level of uncertainty on the R&D lag weight structure, indicating that published assumptions about the R&D lag structure can now be tested and validated against available data. Estimating the R&D lag weights and knowledge stocks also make a large difference in the uncertainties surrounding economic returns from R&D investments. Indeed, our results show that the best‐fit linear model yields slightly higher mean returns to R&D spending relative to the log model results and have significantly less uncertainty. This suggests that marginal returns to U.S. public agricultural research spending might have remained relatively constant despite a century of growth in expenditure. Furthermore, we find that such investments could take a longer time to bear fruit than previously realized.