Kelly Bird

What happens to industrial structure when countries liberalise? Indonesia since the mid‐1980s

A separator assembly for separating different density fluids, such as gas and liquid, which comprises three stages, i.e., an inducer stage, a mixed flow impeller stage, and a centrifugal separator stage. The assembly is usually associated with a pump or pumps for pumping the separated fluids from the assembly. The inducer stage comprises a screw means which, with the impeller stage, delivers fluid to be separated into the separator stage. The impeller stage imparts rotary motion to the fluid. The centrifugal separator stage is a centrifuge and comprises inner and outer cylindrical members which rotate in unison and wherein centrifugal force on the fluid separates the heavier and lighter components, which components flow from the separator stage to the associated pump or pumps.

Making Trade Policy in a New Democracy after a Deep Crisis: Indonesia

This paper examines the recent political economy of trade policy in Indonesia against the backdrop of two major events: the deep economic crisis of 1997–98, and the transition from three decades of rapid growth under an authoritarian regime to a weaker but democratic state. We investigate both international and domestic trade policy. The international trade policy regime has remained largely open, perhaps surprisingly in view of the unpopularity of liberal economic policies in the wake of the crisis and the forces advocating more protectionist policies. However, this openness is precarious, and lacks both institutional and community opinion support. In contrast, while remaining largely open at the international border, domestic barriers to trade have increased. This conjunction of economic crisis and weak, democratic states is a common phenomenon in the developing world, and the lessons for trade policy from the Indonesian experience over this decade are therefore relevant to many other countries.

Concentration in Indonesia Manufacturing, 1975-93

This paper analyses trends and levels of industrial concentration in 102 Indonesian industries between 1975 and 1993. There was a long-term decline in industrial concentration across the manufacturing sector over this period. The simple average four-firm concentration ratio declined from 64% in 1975 to 54% in 1993, while the percentage of industries classified as highly concentrated fell from 39% in 1975 to 28% in 1993. Allowing for foreign trade substantially reduces average concentration measures: in 1993 the average concentration of a sample of 67 industries was 53% without adjustment for foreign trade, but 41% if foreign trade was allowed for. Thus, competition is stronger in Indonesian markets than domestic concentration ratios would suggest.

Tiny, Poor, Land-locked, Indebted, but Growing: Lessons for Late Reforming Transition Economies from Laos

There are few countries where “initial conditions” are as unfavourable as those of Laos. It is a very poor, least developed country. It is land-locked, sharing its international borders with five neighbours. It has the worlds highest per capita stock of unexploded ordinance, a legacy of the Indo China war. It has yet to recover from the loss of most of its entrepreneurial class and over half of its tertiary educated population in the aftermath of that war. It is heavily indebted, with substantial Soviet era obligations still outstanding. Its institutions are weak and property rights ill defined. Yet, its reform efforts over the past two decades have been largely successful, with accelerating growth and the beginnings of a relatively smooth transition from plan to market. This examination of the Lao reform programme and the subsequent outcomes suggests that, contrary to some of the prevailing pessimism, late-comers can engage with the international economy, providing their reforms are reasonably effective and credible. Neighbourhood effects have obviously been supportive in the Lao case, but their importance should not be overstated.

Philippine Economic Development: A Turning Point?

Notwithstanding its sometimes negative international image, the Philippine economy has been performing well in recent years. The country is currently experiencing its longest period - five years - of uninterrupted positive per capita economic growth since the 1970s. The key to the recent success is that, since the deep economic and political crisis of 1985-86, the reformers have been able to enact and institutionalize enough major policy victories to satisfy the business community that they are a more or less permanent feature of the country’s political economy architecture. Two in particular stand out: an independent and high quality central bank, BSP, ensuring that monetary and exchange rate policy continue to function effectively, and trade policy reform that has resulted in a much more open economy. Against this backdrop, we examine the recent growth record, and link it to macroeconomic management, trade policy, microeconomic reform and governance. We also examine social indicators, drawing attention to the recent and puzzling disconnect between trends in economic growth and poverty, and to the large regional disparities in poverty incidence.

Advertise or die: advertising and market share dynamics revisited

This paper estimates the effect of advertising expenditure on market shares of the seven leading firms in the Indonesian cigarette industry using recent advances in time series analysis, namely the error correction model. Own and rivals advertising elasticities for the short run and long run are estimated. In addition, the ‘durability’ of advertising effects is estimated. Empirical results show that the effect of advertising on market shares is relatively short-lived, appearing to be substantially depreciated within one year for all firms. It is also found that advertising is less effective for foreign firms in the Indonesian market.