Kelly Marnewick

Evaluating camera trapping as a method for estimating cheetah abundance in ranching areas

In order to accurately assess the status of the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus it is necessary to obtain data on numbers and demographic trends. However, cheetahs are notoriously difficult to survey because they occur at very low population densities and are often shy and elusive. In South Africa the problem is further complicated in areas where land is privately owned, restricting access, with dense bush and cheetahs that are frequently persecuted. Cheetahs are individually identifiable by their unique spot patterns, making them ideal candidates for capture–recapture surveys. Photographs of cheetahs were obtained using four camera traps placed successively at a total of 12 trap locations in areas of known cheetah activity within a 300 km2 area in the Thabazimbi district of the Limpopo Province. During 10 trapping periods, five different cheetahs were photographed. These results were used to generate capture histories for each cheetah and the data were analysed using the capture–recapture software package CAPTURE. Closure tests indicated that the population was closed (P = 0.056). The Mh model was used to deal with possible heterogeneous capture probabilities among individual cheetahs. Closure tests did not reject the model assumption of population closure (P = 0.056). The Mh model produced a capture probability of 0.17 with an estimate of 6–14 cheetahs (P = 0.95) and a mean population size of seven cheetahs (S.E. = 1.93). These results are promising and will be improved with employment of more camera traps and sampling a larger area.

Minimum prey and area requirements of the Vulnerable cheetah Acinonyx jubatus: implications for reintroduction and management of the species in South Africa

In South Africa there are efforts to manage reintroduced subpopulations of the Vulnerable cheetah Acinonyx jubatus in small reserves (10-1,000 km 2 )a s a managed metapopulation. We estimated areas required to support cheetahs given varying prey densities, prey profiles and presence/absence of competing predators. A recent population and habitat viability assessment in- dicated that 20 subpopulations of 10 cheetahs or 10 sub- populations of 15 cheetahs are required to retain 90% of the heterozygosity of free-ranging cheetahs and to overcome stochastic events in the absence or presence of lions Panthera leo, respectively. We estimate that 203 - SE 42 km 2 (range 48-466 km 2 ) is required to support 10 cheetahs in the absence of lions, whereas 703 - SE 311 km 2 (166-2,806 km 2 ) is required to support 15 cheetahs given equal numbers of lions, and 2,424 - SE 890 km 2 (727-3,739 km 2 ) given equal numbers of leopards Panthera pardus, spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta, wild dogs Lycaon pictus and lions. Existing subpopulations of cheetahs generally occur at densities higher than our mean predicted densities but usually within the range of predicted densities. The large area requirements of cheetahs have implications for the development of the managed metapopulation. Sourcing reintroduction sites of the sizes required to support recommended subpopulation sizes will be difficult. Consequently, innovative measures to increase the carrying capacity of reserves for cheetahs and/or to enlarge reserves will be required. Managers may be forced to stock cheetahs close to or beyond the carrying capacity of their reserves. Consequently, careful management of rein- troduced subpopulations will be required to prevent declines in prey populations.

Evaluating the Status of and African Wild Dogs Lycaon pictus and Cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus through Tourist-based Photographic Surveys in the Kruger National Park

The Kruger National Park is a stronghold for African wild dog Lycaon pictus and cheetah Acinonyx jubatus conservation in South Africa. Tourist photographic surveys have been used to evaluate the minimum number of wild dogs and cheetahs alive over the last two decades. Photographic-based capture-recapture techniques for open populations were used on data collected during a survey done in 2008/9. Models were run for the park as a whole and per region (northern, central, southern). A total of 412 (329–495; SE 41.95) cheetahs and 151 (144–157; SE 3.21) wild dogs occur in the Kruger National Park. Cheetah capture probabilities were affected by time (number of entries) and sex, whereas wild dog capture probabilities were affected by the region of the park. When plotting the number of new individuals identified against the number of entries received, the addition of new wild dogs to the survey reached an asymptote at 210 entries, but cheetahs did not reach an asymptote. The cheetah population of Kruger appears to be acceptable, while the wild dog population size and density are of concern. The effectiveness of tourist-based surveys for estimating population sizes through capture-recapture analyses is shown.

Large-scale distribution patterns of carnivores in northern South Africa: implications for conservation and monitoring

Accurate assessment of carnivore population status is frequently hindered by insufficient distribution data. For northern South Africa we address this deficit by mapping new records from landscape-scale sign surveys, questionnaire interviews, problem animal records and camera trapping. The black-backed jackal Canis mesomelas and caracal Caracal caracal remain common and wide- spread. Ranges of the serval Leptailurus serval and brown hyaena Hyaena brunnea were much larger than previous estimates, reducing the risk of simultaneous extirpation across all occupied locations. The proportion of range area occupied was larger for several species, notably the leopard Panthera pardus , cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and serval. We conclude that the serval continues to recover from historical threats and is expanding into new areas. A larger brown hyaena range and less fragmented pattern of occurrence probably confers greater resilience to threats than was suggested by previous data. Reduced extinction risk arising from the increased area occupied by the cheetah and leopard is tempered by probable local range contraction. Our maps provide baseline information for monitoring the distribution of these six species, which is essential in managing ecological issues that have a spatial component such as responses to changing land use. Our results also demonstrate the utility of detection/non- detection surveys in rapid assessment of carnivore populations at large spatial scales.

Home Ranges of Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) Outside Protected Areas in South Africa

As many carnivores occur outside protected areas, they are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. In South Africa, the largest proportion of the distribution range of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) is outside protected areas along the northern border of the country. Lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) have been extirpated from these areas, leaving the depauperate carnivore guild dominated by cheetahs, leopards (Panthera pardus) and brown hyaenas (Hyaena brunnea). To determine how cheetahs use these areas, tracking collars were fitted to nine individuals from September 2003 to July 2009 in the Thabazimbi area, Limpopo, South Africa. Local Convex Hulls (&agr;LoCoH) were used to determine home range sizes and 50 and 95 utilization distributions (UDs) were calculated. Male 95UDs ranged from 121.5 km2 to 607 km2 while females ranged from 14.7 km2 to 703.3 km2. Cheetahs utilized several ranches and mean home ranges sizes were larger than mean ranch size and larger than cheetah home ranges recorded in other southern African countries, with the exception of the more arid Namibia. This study provides valuable and relevant data on cheetahs and aids conservation practitioners in mitigating human—cheetah conflict on South African farmland.

Determinants of attitudes to carnivores: implications for mitigating human–carnivore conflict on South African farmland

Human–wildlife conflict is increasingly prevalent, particularly in relation to carnivores in non-protected areas of Africa. Quantifying the attitudes of land owners towards carnivores and understanding the factors that influence these attitudes are instrumental in conservation planning and reducing persecution-related threats to carnivores.However, information about attitudes to carnivores in Africa, and South Africa in particular, is scarce. To obtain such data we interviewed 170 commercial game and livestock farmers in two ecologically important rural areas of northern South Africa. Responses to statements about carnivore management, stock protection and predationwere generally positive. However, 62% of respondents believed carnivores to be financially damaging and 35% thought them overly abundant. Many respondents (41%) were unwilling to tolerate even low levels of predation and considered persecution of carnivores to be the cheapest form of stock protection (31%). Attitudes were significantly more positive among respondents who did not kill carnivores than among those who did. Generalized linear regression coupled with informationtheoretic analysis showed that attitudes to carnivores were determined by a combination of cultural and land-use attributes more than by economic factors such as stock holdings or predation losses. The results elucidate potential targets for mitigation activities and facilitate the development of communication, education and extension activities specifically designed to appeal to intended recipients and address prevalent motives for persecuting carnivores.

The distribution and numbers of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) in southern Africa

Assessing the numbers and distribution of threatened species is a central challenge in conservation, often made difficult because the species of concern are rare and elusive. For some predators, this may be compounded by their being sparsely distributed over large areas. Such is the case with the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus. The IUCN Red List process solicits comments, is democratic, transparent, widely-used, and has recently assessed the species. Here, we present additional methods to that process and provide quantitative approaches that may afford greater detail and a benchmark against which to compare future assessments. The cheetah poses challenges, but also affords unique opportunities. It is photogenic, allowing the compilation of thousands of crowd-sourced data. It is also persecuted for killing livestock, enabling estimation of local population densities from the numbers persecuted. Documented instances of persecution in areas with known human and livestock density mean that these data can provide an estimate of where the species may or may not occur in areas without observational data. Compilations of extensive telemetry data coupled with nearly 20,000 additional observations from 39 sources show that free-ranging cheetahs were present across approximately 789,700 km2 of Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe (56%, 22%, 12% and 10% respectively) from 2010 to 2016, with an estimated adult population of 3,577 animals. We identified a further 742,800 km2 of potential cheetah habitat within the study region with low human and livestock densities, where another ∼3,250 cheetahs may occur. Unlike many previous estimates, we make the data available and provide explicit information on exactly where cheetahs occur, or are unlikely to occur. We stress the value of gathering data from public sources though these data were mostly from well-visited protected areas. There is a contiguous, transboundary population of cheetah in southern Africa, known to be the largest in the world. We suggest that this population is more threatened than believed due to the concentration of about 55% of free-ranging individuals in two ecoregions. This area overlaps with commercial farmland with high persecution risk; adult cheetahs were removed at the rate of 0.3 individuals per 100 km2 per year. Our population estimate for confirmed cheetah presence areas is 11% lower than the IUCN’s current assessment for the same region, lending additional support to the recent call for the up-listing of this species from vulnerable to endangered status.

Genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in the Greater Limpopo transfrontier conservation area

The Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA) is one of the last refuges for the endangered African wild dog and hosts roughly one-tenth of the global population. Wild dogs in this area are currently threatened by human encroachment, habitat fragmentation and scarcity of suitable connecting habitat between protected areas. We derived genetic data from mitochondrial and nuclear markers to test the following hypotheses: (i) demographic declines in wild dogs have caused a loss of genetic variation, and (ii) Zimbabwean and South African populations in the GLTFCA have diverged due to the effects of isolation and genetic drift. Genetic patterns among five populations, taken with comparisons to known information, illustrate that allelic richness and heterozygosity have been lost over time, presumably due to effects of inbreeding and genetic drift. Genetic structuring has occurred due to low dispersal rates, which was most apparent between Kruger National Park and the Zimbabwean Lowveld. Immediate strategies to improve gene flow should focus on increasing the quality of habitat corridors between reserves in the GLTFCA and securing higher wild dog survival rates in unprotected areas, with human-mediated translocation only undertaken as a last resort.

Socio-Economic Factors Influencing Attitudes of Landowners Towards Free-Roaming Cheetahs

The largest area of the South African cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) distribution occurs outside formally protected areas, making cheetahs vulnerable to conflict-related killings. This conflict is assumed to be related to negative attitudes of landowners towards predators. Our study assessed the socio-economic factors influencing landowner attitudes towards cheetahs on private properties adjacent to the Kruger National Park (Kruger), South Africa. We used structured questionnaires to interview 199 landowners. Attitudes of landowners towards cheetahs were generally positive; 58% of landowners had attitude index scores between eight and 11. However, 11% had fairly negative or low scores (scores between -2 and 4). First language, land use and respondent knowledge of cheetahs were key drivers of attitude. English speaking landowners (49.8%) were more likely to display positive attitudes towards cheetahs than Afrikaans first-language speakers (46.8%). In addition, the likelihood of having a more positive attitude increased significantly as respondent knowledge of cheetahs increased. Attitudes were also influenced by land use, with wildlife ranchers or ecotourism ventures having a significantly higher probability of having more positive attitudes than livestock farmers. With the Kruger being a stronghold for cheetah conservation in Africa, and large carnivores being vulnerable to edge effects in protected areas, it is important to understand the factors driving conflict so that mitigation efforts can be targeted for maximum impact.

Tracking data from nine free-roaming Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) collared in the Thabazimbi area, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Abstract Background In partnership with the University of Pretoria, the Endangered Wildlife Trust’s Carnivore Conservation Programme collared six male and three female free-roaming Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Thabazimbi area in Limpopo Province, South Africa. This study was undertaken to determine the spatial ecology of free-roaming Cheetahs that occur outside of formal protected areas on private ranchland, where they frequently come into conflict with, and are sometimes killed by, private landowners. The data were collected between September 2003 and November 2008, resulting in a total of 3165 location points (65 points from VHF collars and 3100 from GPS collars) for nine individual Cheetahs. New information This dataset provides distribution information about this Vulnerable species occurring outside of protected areas within South Africa. The dataset has been published to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.GBIF.org) and provides the largest dataset on Cheetahs thus far, and, although it is spatially limited to a relatively small region on the African continent, it is the first study of its kind within South Africa. Also of significance is that the fate of 6 of the 9 collared Cheetahs is known, all except one of which died of anthropogenic causes.