Ken'ichi Matsumoto

Potential Impact of Unconventional Oil Resources on Major Oil-Producing Countries: Scenario Analysis with the ACEGES Model

The role of unconventional oil is increasing in global energy markets. Although conventional oil is being depleted, unconventional oil might manage or eliminate supply constraints in meeting the demand for oil without large positive step changes in the prices. In this study, we use the ACEGES model, which is agent-based, to explore the potential impact of unconventional oil on the evolution of the oil markets, focusing on four important oil-producing countries. We also use quantile sheets to summarize the simulation results. Given the estimated potential of conventional and unconventional resources, the results suggest that the production profiles will change tremendously. Although countries rich in conventional oil, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, will still occupy the global oil markets for approximately the first half of this century, oil production in countries with rich unconventional resources, such as Canada and Venezuela, will be higher in production than Saudi Arabia and Iran from 2050 to 2060. This change in production means that the market power in the global oil markets will shift from Middle Eastern countries to Canada and Venezuela in this century.

Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks.

Impact of climate model uncertainties on socioeconomics

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are strongly associated with economy. The amount of CO2 that human society can emit in order to achieve a climate target depends on physical and biogeochemical properties in the climate system; these vary among climate models or earth system models (ESMs). Thus, uncertainties in such models, the spread remained when we both consider the range of existing models and observational data for key variables, can affect analysis of future global economy. In this study, using a computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the impacts on socioeconomics under a medium climate mitigation scenario by following three emission pathways considering uncertainties in existing ESMs (the lower and upper bounds as well as the mean). The results indicate that the impacts are larger in the lower bound case, despite the fact that economic and energy demands will increase continuously. In a comparison between the upper and lower bound cases, the carbon price of the latter case is approximately three times higher than that of the former case in 2100. Consequently, primary/final energy demand in the lower bound case becomes 1.0%/14% lower, and more renewables and carbon capture and storage are required to be used. Furthermore, the gross domestic product in the lower bound case is 4.1% smaller. Thus, within the scenario, the socioeconomic impacts caused by ESM uncertainties are not insignificant, but are smaller than the differences in annual and cumulative emissions.

Change in Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate how energy structure and energy security of the world and countries will change in the future under various climate change policies, and to better understand the relationship between climate and energy issues that could be used in the related policy discussions.

Socioeconomic Analysis of Various Emission Pathways Considering the Uncertainties of Earth System Models

Although much uncertainty exists in simulating future climate profiles with earth system models (ESMs), it has not been evaluated in relation to socioeconomic aspects. In this study, we analyze the socioeconomic impact of three emission pathways, all of which possibly achieve 4.5 W/m2 of radiative forcing in the year 2100 within uncertainties estimated by an ESM of intermediate complexity tuned for full ESMs using a computable general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the impacts are larger in the lower bound emission pathway to achieve 4.5 W/m2 as expected, although the economy and energy demand increase continuously in this century. However, the global primary energy demand in 2100 in the lower bound case is slightly larger than in the mean case; this can be interpreted because biomass energy with carbon capture and storage technology is enhanced to achieve very low carbon dioxide emissions in the lower bound case. In a comparison between the upper bound and lower bound emission pathways, the carbon price of the latter is approximately three times higher in 2100. The gross domestic product (GDP) in the latter is 4.1% smaller than that in the former in 2100, which is equivalent to only a 0.042% decrease in the annual GDP growth rate. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts caused by ESM uncertainties, here evaluated by GDP and energy demand, are not insignificant but are smaller than the differences in the emission pathways to achieve 4.5 W/m2.

Evaluating Japanese policy instruments for the promotion of renewable energy sources

ABSTRACT In Japan, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) have been used for the exploitation of renewable energy sources (RES). Although these are significant to enhance the use of RES, the RES penetration is not reaching the expected percentage. The identification of their strengths/weaknesses will allow their improvement for achieving the target. This paper concerned the evaluation of RPS and FIT using a multi-criteria evaluation method. First, official data/information were used to assess their performance using the method. Second, national experts were asked about their performance to verify the outcomes. We found FIT was more effective than RPS.

Evaluating Multiple Emission Pathways for a Fixed Cumulative CO2 Emission from Socioeconomic Perspectives

Cumulative CO2 emission is a good indicator for climate stabilization. It has recently been used in socioeconomic research dealing with climate mitigation. However, previous studies do not focus on the socioeconomic impacts of choosing different emission pathways under fixed cumulative CO2 emissions. Such effects are important, since our capacity to reduce emissions may vary each year — thus affecting our policy choices. We develop five emission pathways based on a fixed cumulative CO2 emission (i.e., 812 GtC for this century). All pathways start declining emissions from the reference level in 2040 to attain zero by 2100. We determine the socioeconomic impacts for these pathways using a computable general equilibrium model. Our research indicates that the smaller the emissions, the higher the carbon prices each year. Differences in the global gross domestic product (GDP) among the pathways were less than 4% by 2090, while the differences in the cumulative GDP in terms of net present values were less than 0.1% (with a discount rate of 5%). Thus, there was limited dependence of GDP on pathway. The differences in the global primary energy demand among the pathways were more noticeable, although the largest difference in the cumulative demand was 4%.

Unconventional Oil: Will It Satisfy Future Global Oil Demand?

The role of unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands and extra-heavy oil) is anticipated to increase in the global oil market. Although we are facing a scarcity of conventional (low cost) oil resources, unconventional oil resources might manage (for a period of time) to supply constraints in terms of meeting expected increases in oil demand. Here, we use the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model to investigate the potential impact of unconventional oil resources on the future evolution of the oil market on a global scale. The key assumption of the model is that technological improvements will allow unconventional oil production to increase at a rate similar to the rate of production of the conventional oil resources. An important observation from the ACEGES-based simulations is the significant shift of the peak production of oil (both conventional and unconventional) if and only if technological progress will allow upstream extraction rates for unconventional resources, similar to the historic extraction rates of conventional oil. Given the estimated potential of total oil resources, the ACEGES-based scenario suggests that the unconventional oil production may shift the peak year of total oil by 60 years or more, assuming favourable upstream investment plans and a continuous increase in the demand for crude oil products at a reasonable price. However, increased total oil production might not meet the unconstrained (high) growth rates of oil demand.

Do Sustainable Forest Managements Affect Forest Conservation

This study examined the effect of sustainable forest management schemes on forest conservation using remote sensing data on forest change. We applied fixed effect models focusing on two major sustainable forest management schemes: the Forest Stewardship Council and the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification. The regression results showed that, contrary to findings from previous research, expansion of the sustainable forest management area was uncorrelated with forest loss when the fixed effects of country and time were controlled. Our findings were robust to different types of forest definition and to country groups restricted by OECD or non-OECD membership. Our estimations suggested that sustainable forest management increased forest loss in non-certified forest areas, indicating the existence of leakage of forest loss from certified to non-certified forest areas. These findings imply that leakage effects should be considered when implementing forest management or protected forest schemes.

Effect of Subsidies and Tax Deductions on Promoting the Construction of Long-Life Quality Houses in Japan

Securing a quantity of houses for citizens has been the priority of housing policies in Japan. However, these policies shifted from quantity to quality in the 21st century, including the promotion of “long-life quality housing (LLQH)”, which contributes to a sustainable and healthy society for the residential sector. Since then, various policies have been introduced at the national and prefectural (local) levels to promote the construction of LLQH. Using panel data for 47 prefectures across seven years, this study aims to analyze the factors that Japanese households choose when constructing LLQH. Although various research on LLQH and similar housing exists, this study is the first attempt to empirically explore the factors that promote LLQH. We found that policy measures covering only LLQH were generally effective in promoting the construction of LLQH, and these policy measures were more effective than those covering both LLQH and other types of housing. National-level measures tended to be effective, whereas prefectural-level measures were not. Furthermore, although the effects of individual measures differed, the overall effects of policy measures were confirmed. In conclusion, providing economic incentives had a positive effect on promoting LLQH, and such measures were successful in achieving the intended purpose.