Kenneth A. Froot

Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates

Publisher Summary This chapter presents an overview of the long-run determinants of purchasing power parity (PPP). It reviews the huge time series literature testing simple PPP. This area has proven fruitful ground for applying modern methods for dealing with nonstationary and near-nonstationary time series. The chapter traces out the evolution of the literature from naive static tests of PPP to modern unit-root approaches for testing whether real exchange rates are stationary and to cointegration techniques—the most recent phase of PPP testing. The research on more disaggregated price data is discussed in the chapter, including a nearly two-hundred year data set on commodity prices in England and France during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Aside from providing an extremely long data set, this historical data offers some perspective on the behavior of cross-country relative prices in more modern times. The chapter looks at some possible medium- and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate, particularly the supply-side determinants emphasized in the popular Balassa–Samuelson model. It also considers some evidence that positive demand shocks, such as unexpected increases in government spending, lead to medium-run appreciations of the real exchange rate.

Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: an Imperfect Capital Markets Approach

We examine the connection between exchange rates and foreign direct investment that arises when globally integrated capital markets are subject to informational imperfections. These imperfections cause external financing to be more expensive than internal financing, so that changes in wealth translate into changes in the demand for direct investment. By systematically lowering the relative wealth of domestic agents, a depreciation of the domestic currency can lead to foreign acquisitions of certain domestic assets. we develop a simple model of this phenomenon and test for its relevance in determining international capital flows.

The portfolio flows of international investors

This paper explores the behavior of daily, international portfolio flows into and out of 46 countries from 1994 through 1998. Our data are from State Street Bank & Trust and encompass over 3 million trades by client institutions. We find a number of interesting facts. First, we detect regional factors within the flows. Second, the flows are strongly persistent -- the persistence decays only slowly over time. Third, flows are strongly influenced by past returns, so that investor trend-following is apparent. Fourth forecasting power for future emerging market returns, but not for developed country returns. Fifth, we find the sensitivity of local stock prices to foreign inflows to be positive and determine that transitory inflows impact future returns negatively. Finally, we examine and reject that the positive covariance of returns and inflows is associated with an information disadvantage on the part of international investors.

Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?

A common finding is that the forward discount is a biased predictor of future exchange rate changes. We use survey data on exchange rate expectations to decompose the bias into portions attributable to the risk premium and expectational errors. None of the bias in our sample reflects the risk premium. We also reject the claim that the risk premium is more variable than expected depreciation. Investors would do better if they reduced fractionally the magnitude of expected depreciation. This is the same result that many authors have found with forward market data, but now it cannot be attributed to risk.

Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Cross- Sectional Dependence and Heteroskedasticity in Financial Data

This paper provides a simple method to account for heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional dependence in samples with large cross sections and relatively few time-series observations. The method is motivated by cross-sectional regression studies in finance and accounting. Simulation evidence suggests that these estimators are dependable in small samples and may be useful when generalized least squares is infeasible, unreliable, or computationally too burdensome. We also consider efficiency issues and show that, in principle, asymptotic efficiency can be improved using a technique due to Cragg (1983).

The Market for Catastrophe Risk: A Clinical Examination

This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk -- i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. This market is in transition as new approaches for transferring risk are being explored. The paper studies several recent transactions by USAA which use reinsurance capacity from capital markets rather than only from reinsurers. We identify two puzzles concerning the cat protection purchased in these transactions: there is no coverage for the largest, most severe events; and premiums appear well above actuarial value. We demonstrate that both features deviate from what theory would predict, yet are characteristic of many transactions, not simply those of USAA. We then explore a number of possible explanations for the facts. The most compelling are combinations of capital market imperfections and market power on the part of reinsurers. Conclusions for broader capital market and risk management issues are discussed.

Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: a Unified Approach

Techniques of regulated Brownian motion are used to analyze the behavior of the exchange rate when official policy reaction functions are subject to future stochastic changes. We examine exchange-rate dynamics in alternative cases where the authorities promise (i) to confine a floating rate within a predetermined range and (ii) to peg the currency once it reaches a predetermined future level. Similarities between these and several related examples of regime switching are stressed

The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency

When a central bank is about to relinquish control over its exchange rate and enter into a currency union, it faces very low reputational costs of devaluation. As with any finite-horizon game, the endpoint affects the earlier expectations of private agents, here causing them to demand higher interest rates and higher wages from countries whose currencies are relatively weak. In looking at the countries within the EMS, we find that Italian long-term interest rates as well as price and wage levels relative to those in Germany show evidence of growing gaps. We also find that the real appreciation of the lira appears to be partly due to increases in relative Italian government spending, and not just to rapid Italian productivity growth. Taken together, this evidence suggests that reputational considerations may not be enough to foster continuing convergence within the EMS. Furthermore, moving forward the date of currency union may in the short run increase both the rate of growth of the gaps and the need for exchange-rate realignment.

The Global Financial System: A Functional Perspective

Leading financial scholars present essays examining the performance of the basic financial functions underlying global financial systems: payments, lending and investing, pooling funds, allocating risk, providing information, and dealing with incentive issues - with particular emphasis on how their performance is changing and implications for the future.

Risk Management, Capital Budgeting, and Capital Structure Policy for Insurers and Reinsurers

This article builds on Froot and Stein in developing a framework for analyzing the risk allocation, capital budgeting, and capital structure decisions facing insurers and reinsurers. The model incorporates three key features: (i) value-maximizing insurers and reinsurers face product-market as well as capital-market imperfections that give rise to well-founded concerns with risk management and capital allocation; (ii) some, but not all, of the risks they face can be frictionlessly hedged in the capital market; and (iii) the distribution of their cash flows may be asymmetric, which alters the demand for underwriting and hedging. We show these features result in a three-factor model that determines the optimal pricing and allocation of risk and capital structure of the firm. This approach allows us to integrate these features into: (i) the pricing of risky investment, underwriting, reinsurance, and hedging; and (ii) the allocation of risk across all of these opportunities, and the optimal amount of surplus capital held by the firm.