Kenneth A. Kavajecz

Price Discovery in the Treasury Futures Market

The paper conducts a regression analysis utilizing both futures and cash market prices and net orderflow to determine where price discovery takes place as well as the forces at play that influence the location. Specifically, given the strong theoretical linkage between the U.S. Treasury cash and futures markets, they compare how orderflow contributes to price discovery and analyze how and when information flows from one market to the other. How a number of environmental variables (trader type, financing rates, and liquidity) impact the information flows between these two markets is also considered. Their findings provide new evidence on the extent to which price discovery happens away from a primary market.

Packaging Liquidity: Blind Auctions and Transaction Efficiencies

The costs of implementing investment strategies represent a significant drag on the performance of mutual funds and other institutional investors. It is the responsibility of institutional investors, and in the interests of the individual investors they represent, to seek market mechanisms that mitigate trading costs. We investigate an example of one such liquidity provision mechanism whereby liquidity demanders auction a set of trades as a package directly to potential liquidity providers. A critical feature of the auction is that the identities of the securities in the package are not revealed to the bidder. We demonstrate that this mechanism provides a transactions cost savings relative to more traditional trading mechanisms for the liquidity demander as well as an efficient way for liquidity suppliers to obtain order flow. We argue that the cost savings afforded this new mechanism are due to the potential for low cost crosses with the bidders existing inventory positions and through the longer trading horizon, and superior trading ability, of the bidders. This research suggests that the ability to innovate via new liquidity provision mechanisms can provide market participants with transaction cost savings that cannot be easily duplicated on more traditional exchanges.

On the Formation and Structure of International Exchanges

We investigate the formation and structure of 248 financial exchanges throughout the world. First, we empirically analyze the determinants of exchange formation as well as the impact of exchange formation on the domestic countrys economy. Second, conditional on formation, we use a probit model to relate the choice of trading mechanism to the characteristics of the economic environment in which the exchange exists. We find that the main determinants of exchange formation in a country are the degree of economic freedom, the growth of the economy, the availability of technology, and the legal system. In addition, we find that the impact of exchange formation on the macro economy is limited to a reduction in the growth of the monetary aggregates with no significant impact on productivity. Lastly, our results show that the choice of trading mechanism depends on the countrys economic development, the degree of competition, and the extent of economic freedom.

Volatility and market structure

Abstract This study examines volatility within three related intra-day series – transaction returns, quote midpoint returns, and limit order book midpoint returns – for a set of NYSE-listed stocks. We document statistically significant GARCH effects both overall and surrounding earnings announcements in all three series for the majority of stocks in the sample. We then compare the extent of volatility clustering among the series. In addition, the relation between volatility and market structure is examined via a set of cross-sectional regressions, and relations among the series over time are studied in a vector autoregressive framework.