Kenneth Carling

Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden

Standard search theory and some empirical evidence suggest that an unemployed individuals probability of entering employment increases as they approach the time when unemployment benefits are due to expire. This pattern may not carry over to countries such as Sweden, where labour market programmes are targeted at the long-term unemployed at risk of benefit exhaustion. This paper examines movements out of unemployment using data on unemployed individuals in Sweden. A semi-parametric competing risks model for transitions to employment, labour market programmes and non-participation is estimated. There is some evidence that the exit rate from unemployment to employment increases as benefit exhaustion is approached.

Do Benefit Cuts Boost Job Findings? Swedish Evidence from the 1990s

In June 1995, the Swedish parliament decided to cut the replacement rate in unemployment insurance from 80 percent to 75 percent, a change that took effect on January 1, 1996. This paper examines how this change affected job finding rates among unemployed insured individuals. To identify the effect of the policy we exploit a quasi-experimental feature of the benefit cut: only a fraction of the unemployed was affected by the reduction in replacement rates. We compare the evolution of job finding rates before and after the reform among those affected and those not affected. Our estimates suggest that the reform caused an increase in the transition rate of roughly 10 percent. There is also evidence of anticipatory behavior among the unemployed; the effects of the reform seem to operate several months before its actual implementation in January 1996.

Resistant outlier rules and the non-Gaussian case

The techniques of exploratory data analysis include a resistant rule, based on a linear combination of quartiles, for identification of outliers. This paper shows that the substitution of the quartiles with the median leads to a better performance in the non-Gaussian case. The improvement occurs in terms of resistance and efficiency, and an outside rate that is less affected by the sample size. The paper also studies issues of practical importance in the spirit of robustness by considering moderately skewed and fat tail distributions obtatined as special cases of the Generalized Lambda Distribution.

Does early intervention help the unemployed youth

This paper evaluates a measure targeted at unemployed individuals aged 20-24. The main purpose of the measure is to prevent long-term unemployment by guaranteeing an assignment to some labor market program within 100 days of unemployment. Municipalities voluntarily agree to offer the guarantee. To identify the effect of the measure, we use three conditions: The guarantee covers individuals aged 24 but not 25, one fifth of the municipalities does not provide the guarantee, and the guarantee existed in 1998 but not in 1997. We find no evidence that the measure did significantly improve the future labor market situation of the youth, which suggests that early intervention in the unemployment spell is not important.

Do Benefit Hikes Damage Job Finding? Evidence from Swedish Unemployment Insurance Reforms

In 2001 and 2002, Sweden introduced several unemployment insurance reforms. A major innovation in the first reform was the introduction of a two-tiered benefit structure for some unemployed individuals. This system involved supplementary compensation during the first 20 weeks of unemployment. The 2002 reform retained the two-tiered benefit structure but involved also substantial benefit hikes for spells exceeding 20 weeks. This paper examines how these reforms affected transitions from unemployment to employment. We take advantage of the fact that the reforms had quasi-experimental features where the treatments differed considerably among unemployed individuals. We find that the reforms had strikingly different effects on job finding among men and women. The two reforms in conjunction are estimated to have increased the expected duration of unemployment among men but to have decreased the duration of unemployment among women. The overall effect on the duration of unemployment is not statistically different from zero. However, the reforms reduced job finding among males who remained unemployed for more than 20 weeks.

An empirical study on human mobility and its agent-based modeling

This paper aims to analyze the GPS traces of 258 volunteers in order to obtain a better understanding of both the human mobility patterns and the mechanism. We report the regular and scaling properties of human mobility for several aspects, and importantly we identify its Levy flight characteristic, which is consistent with those from previous studies. We further assume two factors that may govern the Levy flight property: (1) the scaling and hierarchical properties of the purpose clusters which serve as the underlying spatial structure, and (2) the individual preferential behaviors. To verify the assumptions, we implement an agent-based model with the two factors, and the simulated results do indeed capture the same Levy flight pattern as is observed. In order to enable the model to reproduce more mobility patterns, we add to the model a third factor: the jumping factor, which is the probability that one person may cancel their regular mobility schedule and explore a random place. With this factor, our model can cover a relatively wide range of human mobility patterns with scaling exponent values from 1.55 to 2.05.

Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macroeconomy

Despite a surge in the research efforts put into modelling credit risk during the past decade, few studies have incorporated the impact that macroeconomic conditions have on business defaults. In this paper, we estimate a duration model to explain the survival time to default for borrowers in the business loan portfolio of a major Swedish bank over the period 1994-2000. The model takes both firm-specific characteristics, such as accounting ratios and payment behaviour, loan-related information, and the prevailing macroeconomic conditions into account. The output gap, the yield curve and consumers expectations of future economic development have significant explanatory power for the default risk of firms. We also compare our model with a frequently used model of firm default risk that conditions only on firm-specific information. The comparison shows that while the latter model can make a reasonably accurate ranking of firms according to default risk, our model, by taking macro conditions into account, is also able to account for the absolute level of (default, and thus also credit) risk.

Does Euclidean distance work well when the p-median model is applied in rural areas?

The p-median model is used to locate P centers to serve a geographically distributed population. A cornerstone of such a model is the measure of distance between a service center and demand points, i.e. the location of the population (customers, pupils, patients, and so on). Evidence supports the current practice of using Euclidean distance. However, we find that the location of multiple hospitals in a rural region of Sweden with a non-symmetrically distributed population is quite sensitive to distance measure, and somewhat sensitive to spatial aggregation of demand points.

Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy

The Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital determination is one of the cornerstones in the proposed revision of the Basel Committee rules for bank regulation. We evaluate the IRB approach using historical business loan portfolio data from a major Swedish bank for the period 1994 to 2000. First, we estimate a duration model that takes into account both company, loan related and macroeconomic variables. Next, we obtain a Value-at-Risktype (VaR) credit risk measure, by model-based simulations. Moreover, we study how both the bank’s credit risk and bu.er capital changes over time (had the bank been subject to the proposed rules). This approach allows us to (i) make individual forecasts of default risk conditional on company, loan and macro variables, (ii) study portfolio credit risk over time, (iii) assess to what extent the new Accord will achieve its main objective of increasing credit risk sensitivity in minimal capital charges, and (iv) compare current capital requirements to those under the proposed system. Our results show that macro conditions have great explanatory power in predicting default risk and calculating credit risk. The IRB approach, although sensitive to the choice of some horizon parameters, is an achievement in the intended direction.

Is Firm Interdependence Within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk

A drawback of available portfolio credit risk models is that they fail to allow for default risk dependency across loans other than through common risk factors. Thereby, thesemodels ignore that close ties can exist between companies due to legal, financial and business relations. In this paper, we integrate the insights from theoretical models of default correlation into a commonly used model of default and portfolio credit risk by allowing for dependency between firm default risk through both common factors and industry specific errors in a duration model. An application using pooled data from two Swedish banks’ business loan portfolios over the period 1996-2000 shows that estimates of individual default risk are little affected by including industry specific errors. However, accounting for these industry effects increases VaR estimates by 50-200 percent. A traditional model with only systematic factors, although able to fit the broad trends in credit losses, cannot match these fluctuations because it fails to capture credit losses in bad times, when banks are typically hit by large unexpected credit losses. The model we propose manages to follow both the trend in credit losses and produce industry driven, time-varying, fluctuations in losses around that trend. Consequently, this model will better aid banks and regulators in determining the appropriate size of economic capital requirements. Capital buffers derived from our model will be larger for periods with large ”aggregate” disturbances and smaller in better times, and avoid both overcapitalization in good times and undercapitalization in bad times.