Kenneth M. Kletzer

Credit markets and patterns of international trade

Abstract Even with identical technology or endowments between countries comparative costs may differ in a world of credit market imperfection. We have explored two kinds of such imperfection, one involving moral hazard considerations in the international credit market under sovereign risk and the other involving differences between countries in their domestic institutions of credit contract enforcement under incomplete information.

Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia

A model of the domestic financial intermediation of foreign capital inflows based on agency costs is developed for studying financial crises in emerging markets. In equilibrium for the model economy, the banking system becomes progressively more fragile under imperfect prudential regulation and public sector loan guarantees until a crisis occurs with an expected reversal of capital flows. The crisis in this model evolves endogenously as the banking system becomes increasingly vulnerable through the renegotiation of firm debts. Firm revenues are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific technology shocks, but there are no aggregate shocks. The model generates dynamic relationships between foreign capital inflows, domestic investment, firm debt and the value of firm and bank equity in an endogenous growth model. Prior to crisis, foreign capital inflows and bank debt rise relative to investment and domestic production. The aggregate portfolio of the banking sector deteriorates and the total value of bank equities declines in proportion to that for goods producers progressively. The models assumptions and implications for the behavior of the economy before and after crisis are compared to the experience of five East Asian countries. The case studies compare three or near-crisis countries non-crisis economies, Taiwan and Singapore, and lend support to the model.

Crisis Resolution: Next Steps

At the April 2003 meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committees, it was decided to further encourage the contractual approach to smoothing the process of sovereign debt restructuring by encouraging the more widespread use of collective action clauses (CACs) in international bonds. This decision was shaped partly by Mexicos successful launch of a bond subject to New York law but featuring CACs, and by subsequent issues with similar provisions from other emerging market countries. This paper reviews the developments leading up to that event, its implications, and prospects for the future. It asks whether we can expect to see additional issuance by emerging markets of bonds featuring CACs, whether such a trend would in fact help to make the world a safer financial place, and what additional steps might be taken to further enhance modalities for crisis resolution.

International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information

A model of financial crises in emerging markets based on problems of agency in financial intermediation is developed. This model generates dynamic relationships between foreign capital inflows, domestic investment and domestic bank debt in an endogenous growth model. As a consequence of loan renegotiation between limited liability banks and firms, financial crises inevitably occur. Banking and currency crises are concurrent events under an exchange rate peg combined with deposit insurance and implicit government guarantees of foreign currency loans. The model links high pre-crisis growth rates, the accumulation of bank debt and increasing concentration of domestic lending and investment to the anticipation of contingent government insurance of private financial transactions. The dynamics of capital inflows and growth before and after a financial crisis are compared to the experience of the Asian crisis countries. We find evidence consistent with this agency model of domestic bank intermediation of foreign capital inflows under exchange rate pegs.

Reflections on the Fiscal Implications of a Common Currency

This paper studies the likely consequences of monetary unification among the EC members for the conduct of fiscal policy in the EC countries (and by an emerging Federal European Fiscal Authority). Among the conclusions are the following. If the Eurofed is to be independent, the external exchange rate policy of the EC should be assigned to the Eurofed and not to the fiscal authorities. Effective (as opposed to formal) independence of the Eurofed is going to be very difficult to achieve. Coordinated upper ceilings on national public sector financial deficits are unnecessary and probably undesirable. Coordination of national public expenditure policies, tax policies and borrowing policies is in principle desirable for both efficiency and distributional reasons. The empirical models required for a serious welfare analysis of fiscal policy coordination do not yet exi.

The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets

The IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows to emerging markets by providing public monitoring and emergency finance. In analyzing its role we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do the lending. Banks have a natural advantage in monitoring and creditor coordination, while bonds have superior risk sharing characteristics. Consistent with this assumption, banks reduce spreads as they obtain more information through repeat transactions with borrowers. By comparison, repeat borrowing has little influence in bond markets, where publicly-available information dominates. But spreads on bonds are lower when they are issued in conjunction with IMF-supported programs, as if the existence of a program conveyed positive information to bondholders. The influence of IMF monitoring in bond markets is especially pronounced for countries vulnerable to liquidity crises.

Tariffs and saving in a model with new generations

Abstract We explore how a tariff may affect saving through intergenerational redistribution of income that is caused by changes in factor prices and by the distribution of tariff revenue. The model is a Blanchard-style overlapping generations model. Two types of revenue distribution schemes are examined: lump-sum distribution of current revenues to currently living individuals, and distribution as a subsidy to holders of physical wealth. Under both schemes the government budget is continuously balanced. We draw some general conclusions about the non-neutralities that arise in this type of model as opposed to single-generation models, or models in which perfect bequest motives exist.

Economic Growth with Constraints on Tax Revenues and Public Debt: Implications for Fiscal Policy and Cross-Country Differences

This paper evaluates optimal public investment and fiscal policy for countries characterized by limited tax and debt capacities. We study a non stochastic CRS endogenous growth model where public expenditure is an input in the production process, in countries where distortions and limited enforceability result in limited fiscal capacities, as captured by a maximal effective tax rate. We show how persistent differences in growth rates across countries could stem from differential public finance constraints, and differentiate between the case where the public expenditure finances the flow of recurring spending (such as law enforcement), versus the stock of tangible public infrastructure. Although the flow of public expenditure raises productivity, the government should not borrow to finance it as the resulting increase in public debt would lower welfare and the growth rate. With outstanding public debt, the optimal fiscal policy should keep the debt-to-GDP ratio constant in the economy with or without a binding constraint on tax revenues as a share of GDP - current non-durable public goods should be financed only from current revenue. With investment in the stock of public infrastructure, public sector borrowing to finance the accumulation of public capital goods may allow the economy to reach a long-run optimal growth path faster. With a binding tax capacity constraint, if the ratio of the initial public/private sector stock of capital is smaller than the sustainable balanced growth ratio, the optimal policy for the government is to purchase public capital, financed by debt, to immediately attain the sustainable ratio of public capital to private capital. The sustainable steady-state ratio is endogenous to the initial public-to-private capital ratio, the tax capacity and any exogenous debt limit (say, due to sovereign risk). With capital stock adjustment costs, these statements apply to a transition of finite duration rather than an instantaneous stock jump. With either a binding exogenous debt limit or solvency constrained borrowing, a more patient country will have a higher steady-state growth rate but a lower steady-state public-to-private capital ratio.

Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Forbearance and Economic Growth: Implications for the Japanese Banking Crisis

An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation demonstrates how deposit insurance and prudential regulatory forbearance lead to banking crises and growth declines. The model assumptions are based on features of the Japanese financial system and regulation. The model demonstrates how banking and growth crises can evolve under perfect foresight. The dynamics for economic aggregates and asset prices predicted by the model are shown to be generally consistent with the experience of the Japanese economy and financial system through the 1990s. We also test our maintained hypothesis of rational expectations using asset price data for Japan over the 1980s and 1990s.

The Japanese Banking Crisis and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Implications of Deposit Guarantees and Weak Financial Regulation

An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation is used to show how government policies towards the financial sector can lead to banking crises and persistent growth slumps. The model shows how government deposit guarantees and regulatory forbearance can lead to permanent declines in the growth rate of the economy. The effects of inadequate prudential supervision on asset price dynamics under perfect foresight are also derived in the model. The policies that are used in the analysis are based on essential features of Japanese financial regulation. The implications of the model are compared to the experience of the Japanese economy and financial system during the 1990s. We find that the dynamics predicted by our model are generally consistent with the recent behavior of economic aggregates, asset prices and the banking system for Japan. A policy implication of the model is that the impact on future economic growth depends upon the length of time the government fails to enforce loan-loss reserving by banks.